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찰리 멍거가 WSJ 기고에서 암호화폐 전면 금지를 주장한 것을 검토하는 영상. 진행자는 멍거의 근거가 구체적이지 않다고 지적하며 자신은 암호화폐에 중립(agnostic)이라고 밝힘. 멍거 주장 요지: 암호화폐 시장은 사기꾼이 들끓는 야생적 자본주의이며, 중국이 금지한 것은 해악이 이익보다 크다고 판단했기 때문이라고 주장. 영국의 1700년대 신규 주식거래 금지 사례를 들었으나 구체적 근거는 제시하지 않음. 진행자의 반론: FTX 등 사기 사건은 끔찍하지만 사기는 어느 시대에나 있었고 인터넷 자체를 금지하지 않듯 암호화폐 전체를 사기로 몰 수는 없다고 봄. 비트코인은 정부 간섭을 받지 않는 자산으로 짐바브웨·베네수엘라·러시아 같은 국가 국민에게는 유용할 수 있다고 설명. 미국 재정 관련: 미국의 자산 약 3조 달러 대비 부채 약 31조 달러를 기업에 비유하면 매우 나쁜 부채비율이라고 언급하며, 정부의 통화 발행으로 인한 인플레이션 우려를 제기. 다만 본인은 거시정책에 대한 지식이 부족하다고 함. 투자 관련: 본인은 미국·서방 국가 통화에 약 95% 확신을 갖고 여러 국가에 분산 투자하며, 증권사 계좌도 Interactive Brokers 등으로 분산할 계획이라고 밝힘. 비트코인은 가치 저장 수단으로서 '데스메탈 음악'처럼 열정적 지지층이 남아 있어 0으로 수렴할 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 다만 적정 가격(1천 달러인지 100만 달러인지)은 모른다고 명시. 결론: 진행자는 멍거가 충분한 지식을 바탕으로 결론에 이르렀을 것으로 보지만 구체적 설명이 부족하다고 평가하며, 멍거가 암호화폐 금지 이유를 상세히 설명한 자료가 있다면 찾아보고 싶다고 함.
다듬은 글
hi so Charlie Munger recently wrote a piece in the Wall Street Journal called why should America ban crypto now there's actually been a lot of backlash against Charlie for writing this article and things that he said in this um and him being a super legend investor and philosopher some of it actually comes across maybe a bit strange so let me go into this in a bit more detail see firstly Charlie talks about the frothiness of the crypto space and how it was full of swindlers and scammers still is his words specifically were all this Wild and Woolly capitalism is much like that described in a remark often attributed to Mark Twain who was thought to have said that a mine is a hole in the ground with a liar on top now he also went on to say how the Chinese have taken the lead and banned crypto and that in the 1700s England band trading of uh new Common Stocks for 100 years in the latter example Charlie explains how the hundred years that followed were some of the great advancements in human history led by the British now regarding that comment about the British I don't know the details and the Nuance to that but regarding the comments specifically about the Chinese government well Charlie said this the communist government of China recently banned cryptocurrencies because it wisely concluded that they would provide more harm than benefit now the big question here is but but why I want to unpack this further but Charlie doesn't go into the details and why did the Chinese government conclude that it was more bad than good what are the bad things they identified what were the good things we just left I think without any substance for for these reasons now I want to say before I go any further here that I'm actually completely agnostic to crypto agnostic means I'm not for it and I'm not against it it's just way outside my area of expertise I know people like Bill Miller he's a legendary investor and I admire as a very intelligent rational human here's a large amount of his net wealth in Bitcoin and then on the other side of the fence there is a trove of other super investors like Warren Buffett and obviously Charlie Munger that are just outright against it so I think the critique that I have with Charlie at this moment is that most just comes from a lack of information as to why Charlie is so against crypto I just feel I haven't heard a really compelling reason in the specifics as to why it is so evil I've heard him say it's rat poison and it's all gambling but I I really just don't know why he thinks this now I think the things that happen with like FDX and all the scams and rifles that coffee Zilla over on his channel talks about they're all pretty awful and it's it is pretty disgusting but then at what point as a society do we need people to just take some responsibility for their actions what I mean is like this has been around forever like there's been snake oil salesmen like a hundred years ago gambling has been around forever as well swindlers and scammers what about all those Nigerian prince emails from like the 1990s that you heard about um going around the internet we didn't go and ban the internet and scams are just everywhere and this is just I think in the crypto world just it's more of the same but I think to just say straight up that Bitcoin is a scam I don't know whether that's fair on bitcoin my gut feel is that we're actually throwing the baby out with the bath water so to speak I also just think that not all the actors in the space are going to be bad actors I don't know if there is any substance to bitcoin but there might be the little that I do know about Bitcoin it appears to be pretty Rock Solid yeah it's a lot different to what we're used to but that doesn't make it bad uh or maybe it is bad but I just don't know why it is bad and Charlie I think hasn't done a good job in this situation as explaining in details why it is bad like is it because of the incentives that are involved or because he has seen this play out in history before I just don't know what exactly it is about Bitcoin that he hates see on one side you've got Bitcoin being a tool that governments can't interfere with that might actually have its uses I can see why that could be used by drug traffickers and criminals and stuff like that but there's there's also another side to this and my friend Justin points out to me that the US government has just way too much debt and is on the verge of bankruptcy but they are also control of the money supply so they can get out of a sticky situation but that leads to more inflation and etc etc blah blah blah this is not my thing I am years away from getting my head around How Country economic policy and incentives work but if I was to look at it like from a business angle the US has about three trillion dollars in assets and about 31 trillion in debt uh that's a terrible debt ratio if it was was a business I would say it has way too much debt and I wouldn't go anywhere near it but I also don't know all the levers that the FED can pull and I can see why people can get a little bit scared of the mismanagement of governments and Bitcoin offers a government-free asset so if I was Zimbabwean or Venezuelan or Russian I would have very little trust in my government acting as honorable and rational people with the currency history suggests that the governments of those places will not do what is in the best interest of the country so I actually might want something that I can use in other parts of the world and governments can't access I think it makes sense and regarding the Us and other Western countries I think is different because generally speaking they have strong Accounting Standards legal Frameworks we're dealing with embezzlement and a culture that just doesn't accept these Bad actors and because of this I'm about 95 confident in my investments in these currencies I'm not a 100 of course but okay enough for me to make Diversified bets in multiple countries that have these traits and sure maybe one or two of them might go bad I don't know maybe one of them is actually the US honestly I'm more nervous about having just two brokerage accounts interactive brokers is really great saxo is pretty good too but still a lot of my net wealth is tied to just these two companies even though I have Investments inside of those companies there's a single point of failure there with your particular broker so I'm actually looking at a third brokerage account at the moment maybe I'll even get a fourth now I do think interactive brokers is the best and if you haven't got interactive brokers yet I please recommend you do you need to diversify their overall the safest it's the best I've found there's a link in the description to take them for a test run to see what the platform looks like it's just below in the description anyway Bitcoin appears to provide a place with enough people that have agreed it is valuable I would say there is just some like die hard passionate group of bitcoiners out there that will just never sell no matter what they're going to probably die with their Bitcoin now that actually helps the case for Bitcoin I think as a store of value um I see it at the moment as comparable to death metal music um in the music industry I I know that's probably a bit of a stretch um but think about it death metal isn't completely mainstream um it it really isn't accepted in most of the world but for the people that are into it they are really die-hard Fanatics uh they identify with the culture of Death Metal um I see them as a bit weird and crazy but they have such strong beliefs and now biases that the death metal industry will continue it probably will just continue because there's so many passionate people about it so I think Bitcoin is like death metal music and which means there is a lot a solid base of people that will transact with Bitcoin into the future so I see very little chance that this thing goes to zero but I have no idea if a thousand dollars is a fair price a million dollars again I'm agnostic about most of this okay now let's bring this back to Charlie's comments about crypto see I think Charlie would agree that humans are unable to see outside of the systems that they rely on bitcoin is outside that normal system so maybe he is not seeing the Bitcoin system for what it is that's very naive of me to say I get it what is more likely is that Charlie has actually a really good understanding um has done a ton of reading and he's done a ton of thinking about it and he's come to this conclusion based on all his life experience and knowledge that he's acquired that probably isn't anyone alive that is more knowledgeable across all the different fields that there is than Charlie so what is most likely as Charlie has reached to this point of view but just hasn't articulated it in a way that gets into the minutia of what exactly is about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency that should be banned so I do hope that Charlie explains in detail with specifics why crypto should be banned if anyone knows any resources where Charlie has explained in detail why he thinks specifically crypto is not good for society I would be really interested to learn more um thanks for getting to the end of this video please subscribe if you're enjoying the channel and I'll have more investing stuff to come see you soon
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