저자: AndrewBrown · 외국인
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결론: 발언자는 ViacomCBS를 가치투자 관점에서 검토한 뒤 현재가(약 40달러) 대비 과대평가로 판단해 투자 대상에서 제외한다. 재무 체크리스트: 매출은 2011~2018년 사이 정체(약 140억 달러 수준)였고 2019년 이후 합병 효과로 급증했으나 최근 12개월은 소폭 감소했다고 평가. 매출총이익률은 37~42%로 안정적이라 긍정적으로 봄. ROIC는 4~10%로 들쭉날쭉해 부정적으로 평가. 재무 건전성: 유동비율 1.78로 부채 감당 능력은 양호하다고 평가. 잉여현금흐름은 최근 성장했지만 매출 정체로 향후 성장 둔화가 우려된다고 언급. 주식 수 및 경영진: 발행주식 수가 최근 늘어나 희석이 발생 중이라 부정적. 경영진 보수는 높은 반면 자사주 보유는 적어 인센티브가 맞지 않는다고 평가. 투자 대가: David Tepper 등 일부 펀드매니저가 최근 매수했다고 언급하며 가치 플레이 가능성을 검토했으나 최종 판단에는 반영하지 않음. 가치 평가: 할인율 30%(목표 수익률 20% 수준 기대)를 적용한 내재가치 계산에서 공정가치는 음수 수준으로 나와 사실상 매수 불가. 발언자는 현재가(약 40달러)가 자신의 매수 가격대(약 30달러 이하)를 크게 상회한다고 판단. 리스크 및 전망: 스트리밍 경쟁(Netflix, Amazon, Disney 등) 심화로 경쟁 강도가 매우 높다고 지적. 턴어라운드 가능성은 인정하나 본인은 투자하지 않겠다는 입장. 영상 발표 시점(2021년 9월) 기준 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
david tepper i think is a fantastic investor he just recently had been buying the company maybe this is a bit of a value play there's a few guys here have been adding quite aggressively to their viacom cbs position i think these guys think it's a value play so i'm very interested to go see the price hey everyone welcome back to the channel we're going to do another high level valuation today of a company called viacom cbs and what i'm trying to do here on my channel is explain that investing in the stock market is more than just buying a company you love and just watching it go up there's a lot of people who are going to get crushed by this sometime in the future and i'm trying to help you avoid it maybe you're a little concerned that something doesn't feel right about all the hype around cryptocurrency or tesla or what have you well you're not alone my strategy is to look at an investment based on its financials just like we would want to do if we were to buy the entire company and run it ourselves now i'm not going to do a full analysis here i don't have the time to seriously analyze the thousands of companies out there so i'm trying to filter them out as best i can using this method look even if the company passes or fails this quick valuation it doesn't make it a good or a bad investment it's just a way to motivate me whether i want to go onwards and do further research and study the company in serious detail look just sit back and follow along to learn how to do this yourself plus by the end of the video i will have a target buy price for you look it's part art and part science anyway and the more practice we do the better we're going to get so let's jump into this one okay now to do my quick evaluation of vicom cbs i'm going to go through my nine point checklist and then give my opinion at the end so viacom cbs so very quick outline of what it is it's an entertainment producer they're about a 26 billion market cap company at the moment there's some pretty interesting assets here i think they're pretty strong like you've got the nickelodeon brand and all the stuff that's on showtime and mtv and comedy central and paramount pictures there's some pretty cool stuff here uh there's a lot of competition in the space though like netflix of course but all the other content producers out there this is a very highly competitive field so that's going to be my issue or seeing in the financials about growth and things like that so let's go into the details all right revenue growth is the first thing i want to see and okay so for the past okay so we've had to jump up in 2018 to 2019 it's gone from 14 billion to 27 billion there's obviously been a acquisition here it's probably the viacom cbs merger uh came it looks like it's been hit the books about here um so it was from 2011 to 2018 it was gone from 14 billion to 14 billion there's been no growth and then 2019 to the trailing 12 months has actually gone down a little bit so there's no growth here i'm going to have to give that across all right now gross margins um i like to see high relatively high gross margins around 40 is what i'm looking for and yeah we actually have very stable gross margins here um it's ranging between 37 and 42 but uh that's actually pretty consistent uh i'm happy with the gross margins there this the margins of this business are pretty good so it's not a bad business to be in um return on invested capital is next and when i look at return on invested capital this is the how good the management team are using the free cash flow that they generate to reinvest back into the business and grow the business um this is just like a metric to show how good they are at doing that so return on invested capital has been a little bit all over the place there's a low four percent five percent number here it's actually not too bad um it's a little bit lumpy uh when the merger happened it's been it's about ten percent return on invested capital it's actually okay i probably needed a little do a little bit more digging in here but that inconsistency is probably bothering me a little bit i'm going to give him a cross just because that inconsistency but it could be very easily a tick i'm on the fence here i'm giving him a cross but now not a big deal all right let's look at the debt now the debt is obviously how businesses get into trouble is if a company doesn't have any debt it's pretty much impossible for them to go bankrupt so what i'm looking for here is a current ratio above a 1.5 and our last quarter yes we have a 1.78 happy with that so we can give them a tick for debt they can handle their debt at the moment free cash flow okay free cash flow has been has it been growing or not okay so from 2011 it was one and a half billion and then 2018 was about 1.2 so there was actually a slight decline over like before the merger and then since the merger has been growing very quickly um hmm probably needs to do a little bit more digging here um what am i going to do here about that i might i might give them a tick because it has been growing up late but i want to keep an eye on that free cash flow number i'm not sure whether that can grow like it has been growing especially with the revenue being very flat free cash flow is going to struggle to grow from here on in but it has grown a little bit of late okay we'll probably give it a tick brokerage accounts now uh this is really important you don't want to get stuck with a bad brokerage account i think we're already taking enough risk when we invest in these companies that we don't want the brokerage account to go bankrupt or anything like that like that as well i'm very concerned about things like robin hood and weeble and all their startup companies they just don't have any uh long history or stability in their previous earnings or their management team or anything like that so i i'm i want to go with a safer brokerage account i don't care if i have to pay very very small fees maybe two or three dollars per transaction it's not a big deal for me um i highly recommend going with a a reputable brokerage account it makes me sleep at nightis and you also get with interactive brokers and sex so bank the brokerage accounts that i use you get access to the international markets and that's really important with investing not all the best companies in the world are in america or australia or location dependent i like to invest in japan and england and australia and canada and i need access to the international markets so uh interactive brokers have the lowest fees it's the comp is the one that i use i actually use both of these but if you want those links in the description they are affiliate links and it's just because i use these brokerage accounts myself okay shares outstanding now if the number this number is getting bigger it means we're getting diluted and that's a bad thing this number is getting smaller the company's probably buying back shares and that's a good thing so i want to see the last few years has actually been growing so that's not a good sign they've been issuing more more more stock um i'm going to have to give them a cross here it means our ownership percentage in the company is getting worse okay insider ownership so i want to see the management team align with us as shareholders so if i turn over to simply wall street and i look at the leadership team now i have a look at the president the vps they're all getting paid well the president's getting paid 38 million dollars a year but he only has 12 million dollars in stock uh the vp is getting paid 11 million has no it looks like doesn't have any insider ownership the vps are getting three to five to six million but they only have about a million dollars in stock the incentives aren't aligned here the their salary is more important than the stock price and that's not what we want to see so i'm going to have to give them a cross here we definitely want what i'm looking for is the salary the the stock ownership to be about 10 times as big as their salary it means that it's far more important what happens to the stock price in the company in the long term then it does their salary i i don't like seeing their salaries being more important okay then we go look for super investors if any of them have invested and uh what i want the reason i'm doing this is because i i'm not that smart and i would build a lot more conviction in an idea if someone who has like decades of experience a fantastic investor someone who i respect if they've invested in this company well that means a lot more than what i think of the company in my opinion it's gone through their filters so there are ffu um here in data roman there's actually quite a few portfolio managers the david tepper i think is a fantastic investor um and he's he just recently had been buying the company um maybe he sees maybe this is a bit of a value play there's a few guys here have been adding quite aggressively to their viacom cbs position um i think these guys think it's a value play so i'm very interested to go see the price and what i think it's worth so yeah happy with the gurus at the moment okay so turning to price like price is the most important thing um anything can be a good or a bad investment depending on the price that we're going to pay so what i want to see here is i'm going to use my intrinsic value calculator now i've gone ahead and put in some of the data already now the growth rates like we saw with that revenue i know the free cash flow was growing just of late but the revenue's not growing so i can't i can't see the free cash flow growing at 10 percent when the revenue is flat lining that doesn't make any sense to me they kind of have to be going up together uh so i'm putting the growth rates down to pretty much zero like well two percent for the next five years to be hopefully a bit more positive um and then flat after that they're just a cash producing machine and that's all it is now i'm using a discount rate of 30 now you might think that is insane and if i wanted to put this down at 10 this would give me the fair value of the company of about 30 dollars but i need a margin of safety and i want returns on my investments to be in the 20 range so if i aim for 30 it's sort of like i am for the stars and i might land on the moon kind of thing so i aim for 30 and hopefully i'm going to get somewhere in the 20 range um so fair value like i said was what did i say fair value was 30 dollars but if i use my big aggressive 30 percent well i'll show you in a moment but it gets down to the negatives now the multiple i could sell it for a cash flow producing company um if it's stable probably going to get 15.
i would say that's on the high side this is the free cash flow number this is the shares outstanding remember that shares outstanding is growing so that's a problem as well and then they've just got the total cash and the total debt they have more debt than cash at the moment and it's saying that i want to buy it at negative three dollars now that's just because i want such an uh aggressive discount rate it means i this is a hard pass for me because obviously you can't buy things at negative three dollars um maybe if you wanted to get 20 percent with a margin of safety maybe you're only getting 15 percent return on your money you buy it at seven dollars oh maybe you want like single digit returns for whatever reason you'd be buying this at thirty dollars uh if i go and have a look at the stock price right now it's actually forty dollars at the moment so this is not this is not even way outside my um my comfortable levels here for for an investment based on that price way overpaying look maybe i i don't know look if you have a look at what's happened in just in the stock price for the last well here's the last year i know this is a little bit small to see but it had a massive run up here all the way up to nearly a hundred dollars and then it's fallen dramatically it's only cut in half it's actually more than cut in half back down to about 40 dollars so maybe i don't maybe i'm missing something here maybe this is a bit of a value play and that's why the gurus are getting on board but they must know more about this company than me what do i what do i think so let me let me give you my opinion so some of those some of that ip that they have is probably pretty interesting and probably going to generate a lot of cash for for the future but all these other metrics are pretty questionable like the free cash flow i don't think it's going to grow those debt levels weren't fantastic that return on investor capital was on the fence already i i don't know competition in the space is also incredibly high everyone's competing um for viewership um netflix is a big player as well i got amazon you've got disney you've got there's a lot of people vying for attention here i don't know maybe this is a turnaround play and that's what the deep value investors think maybe they're going to move into streaming services and be really successful and have better gross margins and better free cash flow and things like that but for me that price i'm far i'm actually staying completely away from this one i'm just going to rule this one out completely um i don't think it would ever get to a price based on my um intrinsic value calculator again it's free it's in the description if you want this calculator but me trying to get my um my goal of in the 20 range with a margin of safety is i pretty much can't buy this stock so look i hope you've enjoyed this analysis um i'm probably going to get a bit of conflicting uh a fair few conflicting comments here but that's totally okay this is just the way i do things and i hope you've learned something from it and if you have enjoyed the way i do things here please subscribe to my channel so you don't miss future videos and i will see you next time you
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