Symbotic Robotics Stock: 5x or Overblown AI Play?

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심볼릭(SYM)은 로봇 자동화 기업으로 회계 재작성(restatement) 이슈로 주가가 약 37% 급락했으나 본질적 영향은 미미하다고 주장. 2025년 PEG 약 1.36, 2025년 9월 이후 연간 EPS 성장률 69.8% 전망. 연간 실적은 영향 없고 분기 간 비용 인식 시점 차이라고 설명. 계약제조 모델, 소프트뱅크 협업(Greenbox 창고 서비스), 비전 AI 소프트웨어 및 VO 인수로 성장 잠재력 강조. 2027년 목표가 $71~98 제시. 단기 반등 가능성은 언급했으나 장기 관점 영상이며 본인은 현재 포지션 없음(매수 희망). 영상 중 자사 강좌 홍보 다수.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. well it's Black Friday and we got to talk about symbotic the future of quote robust robotics I just did a fundamental Deep dive on this company and I want to break it down with you now the stock is rebounding a bit today so in the short term there's probably a chance it might slow down into the closing and there might be a buying opportunity after you get a 10% bounce on a day but this is a more long-term focused video yeah it's Black Friday yes there's a sale going on at meetkevin.com for the Trump course trumponomics taxes family trust entities uh business uh not just motivation negotiations marketing stocks crypto options trade alerts live streams everything real estate analysis it's going to be my best course ever and it's on Black Friday sale but I want to talk about this company it's a robotics automation company and what's really remarkable is they are going to be a part of in my opinion what will be the worst longer term recession ever now this sounds crazy because it's like wait if you're bullish on a company but you're but you're worried about a recession that seems bad I think the next recession will drive a lot of unemployment and part of the reason I think that is because of Robotics now a lot of the robotics we see here this is this is robotics that already exists right these are current robotics this is old news like this company has been doing robotics for quite a while now in fact they they spaed back in 22 so it was sort of part of that spa cze and as a result of that spack cze they've actually come down quite a bit right now they're trading for about 2642 they were trading for as high as $64 after the spa craze right as the artificial intelligence Revolution began you really saw that right around March of 23 they had a really big run but boy they've come down quite a bit recently down to these lower fibs over here in part because of a delay of their annual filing and their annual filing is being delayed because of restatements they have to make to some prior quarter financial statements and that sounds really scary it's almost like super micro which has been very volatile after their sort of accounting issues uh which I'm actually bullish on the super micro valuation and will stay bullish until they get probably closer to my price Target which is $87 uh but anyway symbotic which is so easy to say symbiotic although it's not symbotic earnings call of this company you'll find that the restatement of these financials doesn't affect their annual numbers at all not a dime in fact in their uh annual report they talk about or sorry their uh latest call you could see it right here before I discuss our financial results I want to address the issue of restatements to quarterly financials as we were reviewing our business processes and preparing our full year financials we identified occurrences during 2024 where goods and services related to specific Milestone achievements were expensed prior to the corresponding achievements so in other words they took an expense too early but because it's all wrapped up into 2024 they expect no impact on their full year results but there could be some restatements for like Q3 versus Q2 versus Q4 which is understandable I look at this as really a nothing Burger mostly because right now the company it's got a high PE ratio but it's also got a really high growth rate the PE Ratio right now on a 4 or 2025 level is 95 which is very high but they're expecting to grow uh by 69.8% for each of the next four years after September of 2025 that's that's pretty good so when you divide that out you're actually looking at this as a PEG ratio of about 1.36 now I actually did a course member live stream on this uh uh company we did a fundamental analysis on them before their stock crashed after the accounting restatement their St crashed like 37% so we're making this video after that crash uh and and now we're looking at it like okay well is it a good deal now right so uh if you actually jump over to what I wrote uh in my uh uh course member analysis sort of summary section because we did a live stream on this you you can actually see on November 20th I reviewed the company this is going to look a little busy on screen here but don't worry about it uh over here in this corner you'll see I posted the Q4 symbiotic earnings call with annotations and the annual report the 2023 uh and we talked about how they use contract manufacturing which I'll talk about the benefits of that in just a moment they're hedging their exposure to prices of Steel going up uh but something that's remarkable uh is uh here I wrote It's for a tweg selling for 10x sales not a particularly good like not a particular deal right now I wrote but absolutely a stock to watch in robotics now what's really interesting is now you have this nothing Burger accounting error and to me I'm looking at that going oh now there's an opportunity cuz now you're not buying it for a two peg you're actually buying it for a 1.3 Peg the accounting error is nonsense I get a cheaper valuation on a good company and now contract manufacturing I will to say I actually really love contract manufacturing n phase does contract manufacturing as well because you can sell a product and a service but you don't have the responsibility of constantly keeping people employed in a factory and making sure the quality control is good instead it's somebody else's responsibility to make sure the quality control is good and if it isn't good you don't buy it so so uh symbotic has to issue these sort of pre-orders for parts and inventories which can sometimes make their cash flow look a little lower like in this last quarter they had some negative cash flow and so some folks are like oh I don't know but their cash flow negative I I believe a lot of that is just due to them pre-ordering from their contract manufacturer and contract manufacturing is great especially if you have a Slowdown because you can really quickly uh uh adjust how much you're spending and you're not sandbagged by keeping all the people employed you know Nvidia is a contract manufacturer too Tesla on the other hand actually also manufactures but that gives them kind of a little bit of an anchor it does also come with other competitive advantages though but this is their cash flow statement and when you look at the prepaid expenses and other current assets section here uh you can see that they've prepaid in one quarter in 3 months here almost an entire Year's worth of prepaid expenses and other assets over here so that alone right there I think is what sort of whack their cash flow sort of expenses going to this uh but they are profitable at least this quarter they profitable expect them to be continue to be profitable you look at a balance sheet uh consideration they've got $727 million in cash $ 382.48 million in accounts receivable in inventory so I think you're a very well capitalized company I think the balance sheet is very strong but something that makes me very excited too is their partnership with SoftBank and how they're controlling costs both of these are a GameChanger in my opinion and they make me pretty excited about the company now I'm also very excited about the Trump course which is on pre-sale today until December 17th really learn more about that just go to me kevin.com watch the video where I talk about the trumponomics course somebody left me a comment the other day they're like how you're you're not you don't have a crystal ball how do you know what Trump's going to talk about well I don't and that's why I actually wrote that I expect 70% of the course to be Live December 17th and then another 30% to come out throughout 2025 as Trump's strategies and plans become a little bit more clear for laws that might get passed or whatever then we update the course with that information so we get to work together on it and come up with plans for entities and trust or whatever I really think this is a course for everybody to have especially at the price it is it's very very reasonable uh you pay once you get lifetime access to this Trump 20125 course and it's good for beginners good for advanced uh it's just going to be good for everybody it's going to be speed you right up to where you need to be so look at their expense management at this company so you look at expense management uh what you actually have is you've got a company that uh is growing revenues year-over-year by about 55% we expect earnings per share to grow by 69% per year which is remarkable uh and part of that is because they're just cutting their sgna but they're still growing over the last year they shrunk sgna by 12% and they still grew 55% which is remarkable and it somewhat implies that maybe these products are really selling themselves and one of the other ways that they're trying to sell their own products well there are actually two ways one is with SoftBank and another is through Acquisitions see this company just acquired this company called uh vot and they mentioned in their earnings calls in their earnings call that they're open to doing more Acquisitions because they think there are a lot of opportunities in robotics right now and so they just acquired this small private company called e free move it's basically a lar based company that helps robots not kill the humans that they're working with that's just like the really quick tldr that I take away from this and uh symbotic now owns this company now vo is a private company what possible human minimum distance to Hazard whatever uh so by acquiring this they actually increase their pricing power in their Moe now that actually is why I'm so excited like ridiculously excited about robotics that I've actually created a VC around this it's roboh hack.

02. uh we're limited to 99 investors right now so if you want in sign the docu sign we will text you more information this weekend if you sign a docu Sign by Monday we'll text you more information uh and uh we're only going to be able to pick 99 accredited investors but we expect uh 20 probably closer to honestly like 40 to 50% uh of uh our investments to go into robotics uh and then we'll have money going into space exploration nuclear energy quantum compute this is just be private like this is Venture Capital right private world but very very excited about what's going on with robotics but anyway uh so they acquired this company but not only did they acquire this company if you jump over to their agreement with SoftBank this is really interesting they want to come out with something called warehouses as a service so w okay this is symbolic warehouses as a service basically what they're doing is they're buying this massive factory for like $125 million or Warehouse basically outside of Atlanta Georgia and uh they're partnering with soft Bank you know not a bank the Investment Group uh and they are taking a 35% ownership of this greenbox Warehouse as a service facility but with the partnership of this SoftBank agrees to help pay for over $7.5 billion dollar of robots from symbotic so like if warehouses service works great symbotic gets 35% of The Upside but symbotic is Tak or uh SoftBank is taking 65% of the risk while symbotic gets to manufacture the robots sell their robots to this this facility where they could basically do like Amazon Fulfillment but not through Amazon for companies and they actually think by doing this they'll sell more of their robots because people will see this and they'll be like oh this is this is like this is such a good Warehouse as a service uh we not only want this for ourselves uh but we want to buy your robots to to make it happen for ourselves so they see uh this as an ability for companies to reduce inventory and costs it's like Contracting out your warehousing to robotics right uh and uh you know SoftBank does get shares in symbotic so there's sort of this Mutual relationship as long as SoftBank is paying for those robots so there's some conditionals there you could read those details that were on screen uh another thing that was fascinating which actually came up in the earnings call uh let's find my earnings call here in the earnings call I want to get to where they talk about Vision take me just a moment to find it but when they talk about Vision what they do is they say like robotics today they're not really there yet without Vision that they're kind of blind and the problem is with that is what happens when products break or spill or or whatever the robots don't have vision and so what they're doing now is they're introducing vision technology and artificial intelligence to the robots and then they're selling a software that they make like 50% margin on which is great and there is the play right so now you're acquiring companies like vo so you can have the lar based Vision train the robots on what to do and really take the entire robot Fleet they already have improve it sell more of the software but then also make it easier to sell more robots in the future this is where they talk about green box how they think it'll be a couple years before they actually build that and they get the W up so you know potentially kind of getting in early obviously the big downside of symbotic is if growth stalls for robotics you're going to have a problem I just don't see a future even in a recession or like if there's an AI crash like Nvidia slows down or whatever I just don't see how uh Warehouse robotics doesn't keep doing you know good but I I could be wrong I I could be really wrong here I I I want to buy this stock I do not own this stock right now I do not have any call options or puts I don't have anything on this right now I have literally zero exposure to this right now but I want to buy uh they talk about this is interesting too they talk about Walmart Mexico and sort of backlog how even though they didn't add any to their backlog this quarter they expect to add to backlog in the next few quarters and really where they get very excited is not only about hedging themselves against uh steel cost but they get excited about uh some uncertainty in warehousing being removed after the election but spe specifically what's going on in South America they think that as they're able to expand with these products to South America uh they're going to be able to explode their total addressable market and what's crazy they think is if they can control their Factory robots with vision sensors they could basically remotely control the robots from anywhere in the world which basically means you could hire very very cheap labor in like Indonesia or India or the Philippines or China to to supervise your robots in factories at local distribution facilities close to the End customer that are all being run by robots using vision-based AI you know they're only doing two uh uh distribution centers right now for Walmart Mexico and they have like 40 or 50 so they're like yeah there you know there's going to be competition but our Tam could literally be ridiculously huge and so they think by doing the was model they're going to be able to really demonstrate what their what their total addressable future Market is so uh this is pretty exciting I think the upside in the valuation comes a lot from not only increasing robotic sales which they're not even pricing in right now but it also uh I mean a lot is already priced in right but I'm saying like in South America or whatever uh let me make sure yeah okay that's still good uh but I think a lot of their enthusiasm comes from software as well so if this company as a contract manufact can start demanding a higher Peg uh the valuation here could could balloon uh I'll run a price target analysis on it so I'm going to go for a 2027 and uh what I'm going to do oh let's get this ready together here okay so for a future valuation I'm going to take a future Peg I mean right now we're at about 1.36 and then we're going to use a future Peg formula on 2027 numbers I'm going to give you Wall Street based on my pegs so Wall Street would have us at uh 85 cents in 2027 uh I'll give them a 50% growth rate which is high that's going to slow down that's down from the 69% right and then I'll give them a a uh 1.67 Peg so I'm going to reduce the the growth rate just to be conservative a little bit I'm going to go with 1.67 PEG which basically doesn't account for software at all and to me this is a $71 company with those numbers so $71 company 2027 uh it's trading for $27 right now then and that's on the more conservative non-software valuation basis if I stick with the 69% growth which might be a little aggressive but maybe not because that's when the W will come out growth could explode if I stick with 69% growth I go 1.67 on the Peg and I go with the earnings of 885 2028 targets $98 2020 sorry 2027 Target is $98 the uh 2028 Target Buck 50 is the current Wall Street estimate times 1 .67 times I'll go 50% growth again it's 125 bucks so I think there's a lot of upside I'm going to say my price Target's probably here between 70 to 98 because I like to stay conservative and so I think that's a low Target but I'm going to go with 71 to 98 bucks on this company and and and I think their recession resilient so this is really exciting to me so I do have also a little bit more from the company on also just to make it clear this video is not sponsored by them I know it sounds like I'm very bullish but that happens there are creators who get sponsored by stock companies uh and to pump the stock and I'm like well that's disingenuous if you don't disclose that so I just want to disclose that I am not although I'd love to tour their Factory honestly if I could get a tour of what they're doing you know while they're manufacturers or even just where they've deployed some that'd be sick but uh here's just an example of a warehouse robot that they're working on now uh and uh this is sort of their next gen robot here's one that they have on they have one version that's on Rails right here these are kind of like robotic Fork Cliffs right and then they have another version that is sort of like your Amazon bot that can rotate and pivot and drive around like a forklift on the floor so kind of cool I mean there's there's a lot of stuff you could see here when you sort of just uh click around on their website I generally don't love watching Market marketing videos uh but they talk a lot about their Robotics and basically they they compare it to full self-driving in cars except I actually think these devices have a better chance of going far uh further faster than full self-driving cars because I think the regulation is easier but you're also in a controlled environment right like when you're in a controlled environment you don't actually have to worry about some random guy running a red light you're in a factory so you have less poopies to worry about anyway that's my take on symbotic ticker SYM sorry I'm bullish but yeah hopefully that was helpful go check out the Trump course uh we do analysis like that almost daily in the course member live stream by the way so uh you get that in the Trump course in addition to the actual Trump related content that coming out so you want to know art of the deal play your trump card all that kind of stuff I'll put my spin on it and uh break it all down for you it'll be really fun anyway rent a warehouse says somebody in the chat here somebody says big juicy Tam yes uh let's see here somebody says that's why I invest in qom let the Bots do the work people can just go buy baby oil or something okay Dad coin says Trump course just signed let's go thank you so much uh for for joining uh dad coin thank you for your impressive work says Robin space Hood I love that that's cool name thank you for sharing this yeah yeah you got it let's celebrate their first Super on a live stream do you offer oh yeah that's the one I answered already a Tiffany yeah absolutely we'll have that in there that's awesome okay uh just a shout out to some of those of you who just joined Torina naven Robert venat sergia S Ser Ser I'll have to work on your name we'll work on that together Dustin mtes Jay William Kevin what's up man andrees Andres bought the bundle the financial advice library and trumponomics and looks like also got trumponomics and the wealth Library uh 99 extra ther but meet Kevin always great to get your take