저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
중동(이란) 긴장으로 원유 공급 차질 우려가 커지고 있다. 호르무즈 해협 통행 위험과 IEA의 역사상 최대 공급 차질 언급이 배경이다. 휴전 기대로 유가가 약 4% 하락했으나 불확실성이 남아 있다. 래리 핑크(블랙록 CEO)는 유가 150달러 시 글로벌 경기침체 우려를 제기했다는 내용이다. 유가 상승은 운송비·생산비·물가 상승과 소비 위축을 거쳐 경기둔화로 이어질 수 있다. 시나리오상 긴장 완화 시 유가 40달러, 지속 시 150달러까지 가능하다는 설명이다. 인도 등 원유 수입국에 특히 부담이 크다는 취지다.
다듬은 글
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink recently issued a very serious warning about the global economy. He has clearly said that if crude oil reaches $50 per barrel then global recession is certain to happen in the world. Now the question is, are we really moving in that direction? And how can rising oil prices shake the entire global economy ?
Actually the root of this whole matter is the increasing tension in the Middle East. Especially the conflict related to Iran and now this issue is not limited to just one area but has become a big threat to the oil supply of the entire world. The most important link here is the straight of hormones.
A sea route through which about 20% of the world's oil passes and if there is even a slight obstruction in this route, it directly affects the global supply and at present this fear is clearly visible in the market. Even the International Energy Agency has described the situation as one of the largest oil supply disruptions in history .
That means this is not a small risk but a very big danger. However, there was a period when oil prices fell by about 4% on expectations of a ceasefire . But this relief was very temporary because there are still a lot of uncertainties at the ground level. Look, the real concern is that if this tension drags on or the risk associated with Iran does n't go away , then oil supply could be affected for a long time.
And that's what BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is saying as well. He believes that even if this war stops for some time, the geopolitical risk related to Iran will not end. This means that oil prices may remain elevated for a long time . According to Larry Finkelstein, if the price of oil reaches $150 per barrel, it could become a tipping point for the global economy.
Because oil is not just a commodity, it's the backbone of the entire economy . When oil becomes expensive, the first thing that becomes expensive is transportation. Petrol and diesel prices increase. Due to which the transportation of everything becomes expensive. Then it affects the industries. The cost of factories increases.
There is pressure on production and many companies start reducing their output. Gradually its effect reaches the common people. The prices of everyday items start increasing. Inflation accelerates and people's spending power begins to decline. And when people spend less, demand falls. Companies' earnings are affected and the growth of the entire economy begins to slow down .
This chain reaction could lead to a global recession . Larry Fenk explained the situation as having two extreme scenarios. In the first scenario, if the tension is reduced. Supply normalizes and Iran begins to operate smoothly in the global system. So oil prices could even fall to $40. But the second scenario is much more dangerous.
If geopolitical tensions continue, supply is repeatedly disrupted, and uncertainty persists, oil prices could reach around $150 . And if this happens, the risk of global recession will increase significantly. The current situation shows that the market is in complete uncertainty. While prices may fluctuate in the short term, the long-term outlook will depend on the direction this Middle East conflict takes.
If this crisis continues for a long time, instability may persist in the oil market and it will affect the economy of the entire world. This situation is even more challenging for countries like India because India imports most of its crude oil needs. In such a situation, the increase in oil prices will have a direct impact on inflation, fuel prices and economic growth in India .
The pressure on the rupee may also increase and it may have a direct impact on the pockets of common people . Now what do you think about this whole matter? What [musical] ideas do you have? Do let us know by commenting and for more such news and updates, stay connected with us and keep watching Man.
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