저자: VishalSharma/주발언자MichaelBurry · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 배리가 미 증시가 1987년 블랙먼데이와 유사한 급락 위험이 있다고 경고. 현재 S&P500·나스닥 신고가, 저변동성 속 과도한 레버리지와 AI 관련주 과열이 근거. 배리는 추가 상승 후 급락을 예상하며 AI 관련 기업·ETF에 숏 포지션 보유. 미 급락 시 인도 증시·루피·IT·금융주 영향 우려는 진행자의 해설.
다듬은 글
If you have invested in the stock market, mutual funds, or SIPs, this news is extremely important for you because the investor who warned the world before the 2008 global economic recession has now again predicted a major market crash. Michael Burry says that the situation in the US stock market is becoming like Black Monday of 1987.
Why did he say this? Has a big bubble really formed in the market and how much impact can it have on Indian investors ? Let us know in this report. Hello, you are watching Mani and I am Vishal Sharma with you. First of all, who is Michael Burry? Let's start the story with this. Look, Michael Burry is an American fund manager.
He is a famous investor. She had already predicted the 2008 financial crisis. At that time, the US housing market had collapsed badly and its impact was felt on stock markets around the world. The famous Hollywood film The Big Shot is also based on the story of Michael Burry. Now let us understand what warning Michael Burry has given this time.
Michael Burry says that there could be a huge decline in the US stock market. He believes that this decline could be like the Black Monday of 1987. According to him, the current boom seen in the market may lead to a major fall in the future. Let us understand what is happening in the US market right now.
Look, America's major indices SNP 500 and NASDC are continuously making new records. If we talk about August 4, SNP500 had closed with a rise of about 1.9%. NASDC jumped nearly 3%. That means the markets are currently around their all-time high. Now why are you assuming that the danger has increased?
Let us understand this. See Michael Burry says the market is continuing to rise. Investor confidence has increased significantly. Seeing the boom, people are continuously investing money. But in such a situation, the market often falls suddenly after reaching its peak. He believes that the market may go up a little more first.
After that, a sudden big fall can be seen. Now let us understand why money is increasing in the market. According to Badi, there is less volatility in the market at this time. When the market is calm, big funds start investing more. This further increases the buying of shares. But as soon as the environment changes, these same investors start selling rapidly and due to this a big fall can occur.
Now in this story, the year 1987 is being mentioned again and again. Black Monday is being mentioned. Let us also understand what that matter was. See, on October 19, 1987, the US stock market experienced the biggest single-day drop in history. It is said that the Dow Jones Index fell by approximately 22% in a single day.
The value of approximately $500 billion of the New York Stock Exchange was wiped out in a single day and this incident is called Black Monday. Now let us understand what is the concern regarding leverage. Badi says that investment by borrowing in the market, i.e. leverage, is increasing. When the leverage is high, the losses increase manifold in case of a fall and this is the reason why they have expressed fear of a situation like 1987.
Now what has he said about Artificial Intelligence? Is. Michael Burry believes that the shares of AI-related companies have risen significantly. But this momentum cannot last forever. The huge expenditure on AI infrastructure is not sustainable in the long run. If investor confidence weakens, artificial intelligence stocks could also fall sharply.
Now in this story, we are hearing the prophecy of Michael Burry. So the next question that might be coming to your mind is did Michael Burry also place the bet himself? So the answer is yes, Michael Burry himself has also placed a bet. He has taken short positions in some companies and ETFs related to artificial intelligence.
That means they hope that the price of these shares may fall. However, he has also said that if the market trend changes then he will close his short position. Now in this story we tried to understand the American angle that a prediction was made about the American stock market. But the question that might be coming to your mind is that if there is a fall in the American stock market, will it have an impact on the Indian stock market as well ?
So let's get the answer to this also. So yes, you understood it absolutely right. Selling may also increase in the Indian stock market. If such a crisis occurs in America, then look, America has the largest stock market in the world. When there is a big fall there, foreign investors often start withdrawing money from emerging markets like India to reduce risk.
Due to this, a sharp decline may be seen in Sussex and Nifty. Apart from this, FIIs can withdraw their money. The pressure on the rupee may increase as foreign investors buy dollars and take money out, which increases the demand for the dollar and weakens the rupee. Because of this it is being said that pressure on the rupee may increase.
It is being said that IT companies may be affected the most because a major part of the income of big Indian IT companies like TCS, Infosys, HCL, Tech, WPRO comes from America. So if there is some problem in America then it can also affect the IT companies here. Pressure may also be seen on banking and financial shares.
Apart from this, before leaving, let us also give you information on commodities. The price of gold may also increase. So here is the latest update regarding the Indian stock market. Please do let us know by commenting how you liked our detailed report. Similarly, stay with us for all the latest news related to the country, world and business world and keep watching Man.
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