저자: DanielleShay,VPofOptionsSimplerTrading · 외국인
요약 보기
기술주 조정은 2월 하순 심화 가능성이 있으며, 과열과 높은 실적 기대치가 원인이라고 진단. 아마존은 $200 지지선 부근 장기 매수 관점이나 $200 이탈 시 강세 논리 훼손. 나스닥100(QQQ)은 $600 하회 후 $575 타깃으로 약세 헤지. 로블록스는 실적 후 하락 추세 지속으로 $50 목표의 약세 베팅. 중간선거 연도와 2월 특성상 변동성 확대 전망, 연말 QQQ는 현재보다 높을 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
Danielle Shay, VP of Options Simpler Trading, is joining me now here on set. Thank you so much for being here. So, you know, a pullback is a pullback. What do we think this is that's happening right now? I think that this could be the start of something bigger, especially because February we typically see a pullback, especially the second half of the month.
And so, I feel as though because this pullback started during earning season in January, it's most likely going to get deeper as February goes on. And so, is there a catalyst or just these names got too high? I think it got too high. I think everything got too high. It was a little bit too euphoric, too exuberant, and um expectations for earnings specifically were just too high this quarter.
I mean, most of the Mag 7 beat the street with their quarterly numbers. I mean, it wasn't like we got terrible numbers, but there's a lot of CapEx spend. We've heard from Alphabet Google yesterday. We're going to hear from Amazon today. Um and most of the names, with the exception of Nvidia, then will have reported of the Mag 7.
And they were beats for the most part. So, what do we say about that? I think that the market just expected much stronger growth to continue, and I think also the spending has become a little bit of an issue. Additionally, when we're looking at guidance, if guidance, like in the case of Microsoft, is slightly lower than what the market would like to see, that's when we're getting these big sell-offs.
Yeah, and look, Microsoft really, uh you know, there are folks who love Microsoft. I was saying how Amazon was down for 1 year, but Microsoft, folks who picked this one, I mean, they're seeing down year-to-date down 17%. I mean, it's just this year. It's only February 5th, you know? Um what are your thoughts on Amazon for today after the bell?
What are you watching for? So, Amazon has about a $19 expected move in the options market. And so, when we look at the post-earnings move, we have to keep that in mind. So, as long as it stays within that $19 range, I'm not concerned, especially if it pulls back. If it pulled back that $19 down into the 200 area of support, I think that would be a great spot to buy it on a long-term basis.
However, what we have to watch for is a 1 and 1/2 to 2x move because that's when that can really shift the trend. So, let's say tomorrow Amazon's down $30, $35, $40. In that case, that would break my bullish thesis because it would break that critical support zone. So, at this point now, are you buying on dips?
Would you say buy on dips? I mean, I know we're going to get to the triple Qs as well, but when you see techs pulling back, but you said you might see further selling. So, when do you choose to buy on a dip? So, it just depends if you're looking at a stock for a long-term buy and hold. Specifically, for me with Amazon, I am continuing to build a position in that name as a long-term buy and hold.
So, I would like to buy more around 200, and even if it did fall a little bit further, I would continue to buy it. But, I'm also a short-term options trader, and so specifically what I'm doing is on a short-term basis, I'm placing a lot of bearish trades to trade these downwards moves while continuing to dollar cost average on a long-term basis with names that I really like.
So, I mean, a lot of the analysts have price targets at 300. Yes. Um but you think that we might see a sell-off just because even when companies are beating, they sell off anyway? You feel like that just because this is the momentum of the market, we might see selling regardless of what Amazon tells us?
Yes, and that has been the case. I mean, we saw Google down after earnings as well. And so, this every every earning season is different. There's a different flavor each quarter, and this quarter it has been, "Hey, you beat your numbers, you're still selling off." So, I wouldn't be surprised if Amazon did pull back a little bit further.
Though, I will say that because it pulled back before the earnings report, it's in a better position than some of these others that went into earnings on the high. So, let's talk about some other opportunities. So, Amazon, you're buying on a pullback. What about the triple Qs, which have been hit pretty hard?
I mean, let me give folks so they have an understanding of just how dramatic this has been. Uh you know, look, just this week we're down almost 4 3.7%. So, when do you buy into the triple Qs? The high was 637, we're at 598 now. Where's the opportunity? So, right now, I'm actually using the Qs to hedge.
So, I placed some bearish butterflies. I was targeting the $600 price point. I was taking profits on those this morning. And because we have broken through that $600 price point, now I'm targeting 575. So, I'm going to add some additional bearish trades targeting that zone. Oh, that's really interesting.
And what about Roblox? I mean, what's the fascination with Roblox in the first place? Why did everybody love Roblox? And where do you stand now on this? So, this one I've been back and forth on because I use it for trading. So, it hasn't been a long-term buy and hold for me, but the initial excitement around Roblox was just that it's a unique business model, and the kids are absolutely addicted to it.
So, there is that. However, what happened was last quarter that trend broke and it changed. After earnings, it gapped down and it shifted into a bearish trend, and it stayed in a bearish trend all quarter. So, what can happen when you have a strong stock like that that shifts on earnings, if it has a second quarter in a row of disappointment, it can just roll over and die, especially once you get to the third quarter in a row.
Uh that's when it your bet on this? You're betting it's going lower here on this one? To continue the bearish trend after that gap down on the last earnings report, which I mean, the high was 150 on the last earnings report. If you see that, you can see uh you know, 3 months ago that there was that gap down.
So, let's say 3 months ago we're down 41%, 6 months down 54%. So, you think it continues to the downside. So, at $60.87, you're betting that it's going lower to what kind of levels? Uh, well, so right now the expected move over the earnings report is about $9. So, I think targeting 50 is completely reasonable.
Right. Um, and then also, you know, some people they don't like to trade the actual earnings report, which I can understand because it's really volatile. So, another strategy that I will do is wait until after the earnings report, and let's say it just Let's say it trades higher by a little bit, maybe $5, maybe $10, not $20 because that would be twice the expected move.
But, if it did that, it would rally directly into support, and that would be a spot where traders could come in and short it, and then trade it down into 50, and it would give you a little bit better of an entry with an edge that's not over the actual report itself. So, by the end of the year, I mean, let's look more big picture.
It's evident that we're seeing some selling and that you think some selling continues through February. It's the midterm elections. At the end of this year, do you expect the triple Qs to be higher than where we are now, for example? Yes, but that doesn't mean we can't see some pretty substantial volatility in between, right?
And so, this is historically midterms, plus February, then you have the fact that the January rally didn't come through as well as I would have liked to have seen. So, it seems to me the volatility is really picking up. Danielle Shay, VP of Options Simpler Trading. Thank you so much for being with us. Great to see you, Danielle. Thank you.
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