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Michael Saylor selling, many people saying, "Oh my gosh, you know, his debt-to-asset ratio or debt-to-market cap ratio, I think, is in the 40-45% range. He may be forced to sell more and more Bitcoin." Um we shall see. We shall see. Um as I said, we think gold will continue to come down. Um so, that will put upward pressure on this ratio.
And as far as Bitcoin, uh there are a few on-chain indicators that are saying the bearishness has reached an extreme. We shall see. We shall see. Maybe this is going to be a test. The digital asset ecosystem is undergoing a significant structural change, according to Cathie Wood, a trailblazing institutional investor who has supported Bitcoin since it was largely disregarded in 2015.
While Ethereum and decentralized finance, DeFi, are quickly developing into the fundamental infrastructure for intermediary-free financial services, Bitcoin is solidifying its position as the fundamental base layer of global money. Traditional financial institutions that previously rejected cryptocurrency are now actively building around it, using tokenization and stablecoins as crucial bridges to integrate legacy capital with on-chain markets.
This shift is more driven by a significant paradigm shift in institutional engagement than by changes in the underlying technology. Raoul Pal, a macro investor, builds on this idea by projecting an even more ambitious trajectory. He contends that as autonomous AI agents and machine-driven economic activities enter the ecosystem and necessitate native digital settlement layers, the total addressable market for cryptocurrency is set for exponential growth.
When taken as a whole, these complimentary viewpoints show that the cryptocurrency market has successfully moved into the dominant, highly interconnected financial infrastructure of the contemporary global economy, permanently outgrowing its niche status. Not a care in the world. And and you know what?
If we're going into a boom, uh that's right. These credit default swaps, bank credit default swaps, um should be well-behaved, as should junk bond yields. Or So, these are these are the high yield uh high yield yield high yields relative to Treasury yields uh the 10-year spread. And you can see very quiescent.
You can also see, and we always have to um be on guard, that you know, it they're quiescent until they're not, until there's a major shock. That's why everybody was worried about the private credit meltdown. We have not been worried about that. We think it's isolated. It's not uh hitting the banking system.
And uh so, we feel pretty good about that. Just two more charts here, uh courtesy of uh Kalshi. So, this is their new American power index. So, uh Kalshi uh wisely is starting an index business, uh and hoping that uh their index become important reference points for traders. Um and uh and you know, increase the liquidity of all of their markets.
So, this is uh the American power index. Now, given how much power is in the news uh around data centers, I don't think I would have named it this. Um but but it is the balance of power here that they're trying to get at, Republican versus Democrat. And I was astonished to see that this is flipped toward Republican.
It when the Iran war started, it went negative. And now it's come back, and I do think the stock market has had something to do with that. And a lowering or a lessening of the incredibly difficult rhetoric around the beginning of the war and an iteration towards hopefully some kind of deal. So so that's interesting, especially important in this midterm election year.
And this is uh um This is another chart market that we suggested Calci when will Compass Pathways submit an NDA for Comp 360 psilocybin for treatment-resistant depression. And what's interesting about this, this is where there inefficiencies in these markets. You know, there are so many positive signals here.
This started in March. Um This contracted before the FDA or before the president's executive order on April 18th, I believe, to expedite the approval process for psilocybin and other psychedelics for mental illness. And it also there was the FDA also um cooperated in in essence by taking the approval process or the length of time for from 10 months to 1 to 2 months.
So we thought all of these would go up you know, that that the odds of all of these would go up dramatically, but they've hardly changed. Uh and amusingly, uh the the before January of '27 is higher than the before April of '27. How can that be? Uh so, we're all getting used to these new markets. I'm enjoying it.
I think it's bringing back active management because we'll be focusing on the variables that are most important to stock moves. And hopefully, getting away from mindless algorithmic trading around macro variables and others. Let's just get down to business and what really matters in terms of um company-by-company.
Here you can see Bitcoin to gold. This This one isn't as clear-cut. Um there's been a lot of fear around quantum computing, around Michael Saylor selling, many people saying, "Oh my gosh, you know, his debt-to-asset ratio or debt-to-market cap ratio, I think, is in the 40-45% range. He may be forced to sell more and more Bitcoin." Um we shall see.
We shall see. Um as I said, we think gold will continue to come down. Um so, that will put upward pressure on this ratio. And as far as Bitcoin, uh there are a few on-chain indicators that are saying the bearishness has reached an extreme. We shall see. We shall see. Maybe this is going to be a test.
In 2015, when the mainstream market largely rejected Bitcoin as a short-lived experiment with no use cases or institutional viability, Cathie Wood considers how the cryptocurrency has evolved from a highly rejected fringe asset to a fundamental pillar of global finance. This illustrates a classic technological adoption cycle where intense early skepticism merely signaled an unprecedented investment opportunity.
Since then, this early stance has developed into a thorough institutional thesis that positions Ethereum and decentralized finance as the fundamental architecture of programmable financial systems and frames Bitcoin as the fundamental global monetary layer. Large capital allocators can now obtain long-term portfolio exposure through regulated vehicles like exchange-traded funds ETFs, which have hastened the paradigm shift from outright institutional rejection to systemic integration.
In the end, this structural shift indicates that the market has permanently passed the survival debate phase and entered a potent expansion era of early adoption, where the main focus is now on how deeply ingrained and pervasive these layers of digital assets will become within the global financial infrastructure.
Now, onto the rest of the economy. So, that's the consumer uh and housing and, you know, those two are very related in terms of sentiment. Um here's the um just in case just in case the Iran war happens, boom. Just in case we run into another supply shock, I'm going to build inventories. We think that's partly what's going on here.
And then, of course, the other uh big development, continuing development is the AI infrastructure boom. And it is creating a ripple effect throughout the manufacturing sector. Here's you can see uh we've broken out of, you know, in the tech and telecom bubble, we went to a high and we had trouble breaking through it until recently.
And now, we're out. If you this were a stock, you're you'd say we've broken out. We had a little cup and saucer or whatever that would be called technically. And we're on our way. We're on our way. Because, why? Because this investment is paying off amazingly. So, uh XAI, now SpaceXAI, has, to the best of our ability to discern this from SpaceX's S1, um Brett Winton has done incredible work on this as well along with uh Frank Downing and Joseph on our AI team.
Uh we believe that uh SpaceXAI SpaceXAI um built Colossus 1 uh and 2. I'm not going to get this exactly right, but for roughly $30 billion. And Anthropic is renting it out effectively for 1.25 billion per month. 15 billion a year. And uh the numbers may be even higher than that. So, think about that.
They invested 30 billion. And Anthropic is, you know, in 1 year going to return half of that investment. That's mind-blowing. Uh and so that's why I think that um SpaceXAI was willing to rent it out. Anthropic was willing to pay, and XAI is reorganizing and restructuring. Here you can see tech spending, comparing it to where we were in the tech and telecom bubble.
This is what scares a lot of people. We're almost there. Um and this is on a metric uh that we'll share who put together this chart. It's It's around very tech-specific categories, hardware, software, maybe R&D as well. So, we're we're up there and yet we think we have miles to go. In the Industrial Revolution, uh CapEx as a percent of GDP went to somewhere in the 5 to 6% range.
Um right now, we are in uh we're less than half of that, maybe the 2% range. And we think we could go into that 5 to 6% range. So, don't let the tech and telecom bubble and bust scare you. That was too much capital chasing too few opportunities too soon. We didn't have the cloud, we didn't have the breakthroughs in AI, and everything was way too costly.
That fiber laid stayed dark for decades. The GPUs today, as someone said, I don't know who said this, they're melting. They're in such short supply. Trade deficit, just to round out uh consumption, investment, uh inventories and trade, those that's what makes up GDP. Um you can see pretty much uh status quo.
At least it's not getting bigger. I think that would uh uh light a fire under uh President Trump's rhetoric on on this particular topic. Uh we would not be surprised to see uh deficits get worse. And as I've said, we don't worry about it because the other side of a trade deficit is a capital surplus.
It all works out. We see we see a lot of capital inflows into the US. Here, we're on to markets and fascinated by this chart still. Uh the gap that opened up, and I think this, when history is written and has enough hindsight, uh we'll look at the 22 2022 rate hikes as, you know, a massive mistake. It caused a lot of harm.
The metals to GDP I mean metals to gold ratio in the green there went straight down. It is now starting to recover. That's good news. It's consistent with the economy uh starting to recover. Um as you can see, interest rates have pretty much been range bound in the last few years despite some of uh the the charts I showed earlier in terms of the disgorgement of Treasury securities around the world.
Uh and they're buying gold. If we're right, that's going to be a major mistake because if you'll notice uh the day that Kevin Warsh was appointed that President Trump appointed Kevin Warsh, the gold price peaked. The gold price peaked. Uh and I do believe that Kevin Warsh, just like Greenspan, uh will keep a very close eye on gold as an important inflation gauge.
Here S&P to crude oil uh bouncing back. Uh this is very reassuring. You saw what happened in the '70s. It absolutely imploded. And that created a bear market that lasted from 1966 to 1982. And uh and uh you can see we're we're we're not continuing down. We're moving in the other direction. And we think that will continue, especially if we're right on oil prices.
Here is the S&P to gold. And again, I reference this because I respect Gavcal uh a research house out there. They they um tuned us into this many years ago. And you can see again in the '70s what a disaster. Um you can see we're stabilizing here. S&P picking up relative to gold because the S&P is going up and gold is going down.
Uh we do think that's going to continue today notwithstanding, if we've got Kevin Warsh right, and I think we do. When the biggest traditional asset managers in the world stopped ignoring blockchain technology and started actively developing tokenization and digital asset settlement systems, a significant paradigm shift in institutional perception took place.
This effectively redefined cryptocurrency from a speculative side project into fundamental market infrastructure. Cathy would support the shift by pointing out how the development of institutional frameworks has changed the focus from existential survival to real-time systemic integration. This process has been greatly accelerated by stablecoins' transformation from contentious crypto-native tools into frictionless institutional pipelines.
Stablecoins have significantly changed the dynamics of liquidity by acting as a vital link between decentralized finance and legacy banking systems. They have replaced speculative, erratic inflows with structured financial rails that are ideal for institutional payments, settlement, and steady trading activity.
As a result, this new structure creates a distinct hierarchy in which Ethereum is the programmable infrastructure layer, Bitcoin is the base monetary layer, and tokenization is the tissue that connects real-world assets to the blockchain. This marks the end of the adoption debate and the ongoing realization of deep institutional integration.
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