저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
AVGO가 200일 지수이동평균 지지 후 128.5→172.42 급등. 13.025 하회 후 반등해 저점 돌파가 허위 돌파로 해석. RSI 약 58로 과매수 전 추가 상승 여지 있으나 거래량 감소와 약세 다이버전스 존재. 다음 주 엔비디아 실적이 변동성 요인. 하락 시 100일선, 150 심리선 재테스트 가능성 언급. 가입 유도 광고 포함.
다듬은 글
here we have the dai has seen a fairly impressive run higher over recent trading sessions essentially we we rallied from just just around 12850 and the the test of the Stock's 200 day exponential moving average all the way to share prices that reached highs of 17242 so this is a very significant move higher in a very short period of time and this does raise some key questions about whether or not current share price action is sustainable at current levels so in this video we will be watching some of these um strategies that I'll be using going forward and we will identify some very specific price zones which can be used to execute profitable trading strategies for this stock so as we can currently see here uh the share price did see a massive run higher after testing this this 200 day exponential moving average at the bottom of this chart that would be this Rising blue line at the bottom of the chart overall this was very significant because previously the main the main support Zone that came in for broadcom uh posted at 13025 this would essentially be the price low from the from the June 3rd trading session and as we can see here this recent price move lower did actually break that low So for anybody that was implementing any sort of you know breakout type strategy uh possibly entered into some sort of short position uh likely got stopped out here very quickly because this this share price here just completely reversed higher even after breaking to new lows so this was very significant but as you can see here the 200 day exponential moving average was really sort of the Savior for this stock and this did prevent prevent share prices from from continuing to move lower so in some sense this was actually a false breakout to the downside if you compare this 13025 low to this 12850 low it wouldn't be it wouldn't be surprising to see some people enter into short positions at that point in anticipation of a further move lower possibly toward a retest of the April 19 low which came in at 11976 so there there could have been some some extension here to the downside however we really did not see that we really did see a bounce off of this 200 day need to sort of re reassess this this share price action given the fact that a lot of these analysis structures and trend lines and things like that would need to be redrawn after uh after a false price breakout like that so what we can see here currently is the fact that share prices did significantly move higher uh we have seen share prices move uh higher also in the relative strength index as we can see at the bottom of this chart however the share price itself has not moved into overbought territory just yet we're actually seeing a little bit of a bearish Divergence here in terms of uh share price action because share prices are moving higher but a lot of the same activity is not being confirmed in the indicator reading in addition to this we do have some very important event risks that are coming next week specifically what I'm talking about here is the Nvidia earnings release this is going to be very important for the market as a whole not just the technology space so this is an event that is very likely to create volatility here for for all technology stocks and for anybody that's sort of risk averse or uh not not really interested in trading in uncertain markets or volatile markets next week might not be the best week to be trading because as as you as you know we're still in a summer trading period here uh liquidity levels are really decreasing at the moment we can even see that in this price chart specifically if we look at the trading volumes that have been associated with broadcom recently we can see a very significant decline here in trading volume so as the stock was posting its all-time highs we did see major spikes here but then that started to reverse and then you know people started people started to take profits here at these higher levels uh this was also a very volatile trading time because as you might remember if you trade the stock there was a very significant price Gap that preceded this movement higher so you know this was this was a volatile uncertain trading environment and it does look as though many people wanted to take profits after the stock reached these elevated levels above 85 so ultimately what this resulted in was a major decline in trading volumes so you know this is this is worrisome for a few different reasons you know because this this increases uncertainty and it increases the potential for volatility in other words it really doesn't take much as much money to move to push around share prices and to move stock prices um you know much much smaller amounts of money can can send send prices higher or lower so you know this is a volatile trading environment where're still in the summer trading period and then next week we also have this uh this major Mega earnings release coming from Nvidia so we do have to sort of look at this indicator reading here and make an assessment of whether or not uh share prices really can continue moving much higher as we can see currently the RSI the relative strength index is sort of bouncing off of its own exponential moving average we really didn't get much of a test here but it is starting to point in the upper Direction after moving closer to its EMA which would be the yellow line the RSI is the purple line and the the yellow line is the moving average of the relative strength index so as we can see here the the RSI itself is starting to point higher and currently we're looking at levels right around 58 so what this does mean is that we could see an extension higher here before the share price itself starts to become over overbought however uh you know we're looking at about 12 points in the RSI whereas movements to the downside would have much more room to extend so if we do see an uncertain Market uh possibly an earnings disappointment from Nvidia uh you know this is something that could definitely send share prices lower and we could start to retest support levels right around the 100 period uh this would be the 100 day exponential moving average because this is the daily chart that we're looking at here this this Rising purple line here is the is the 100 day exponential moving average let's draw a price Arrow here so as we can see here you know a downside retest could send share prices back through the 150 level which would be important because uh 150 is is a closely watched psychological level uh you know this is this is a level that's going to be watched by significant portions of the market and if we do start to see share prices move through there it could also Inspire some Panic selling for this stock now we have to remember all of this is not going to be you know related to an issue that's that's directly impacting broadcom itself if we do see sell-offs in the broader Market or disappointments with Nvidia you know this doesn't necessarily mean that the fundamental backdrop for NVIDIA for sorry for broadcom has actually changed so you know if we do see major dips lower here this could actually create some interesting buying opportunities for the stock depending on how how price structures actually actually shake out and it is going to depend largely on on broader Market Behavior within within the technology space and within the S&P 500 and NASDAQ as a whole so here the current ]
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