저자: StacyRaz · 외국인
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브로드컴은 AI 칩 설계(구글·메타 등 하이퍼스케일러 대상)와 AI 네트워킹, VMware 인수에 따른 소프트웨어 사업이 강점이며, 밸류에이션 대비 매력적이라고 평가. 올해 AI 가이던스(약 110억 달러)는 보수적이고 실적 상향 여지가 있다고 봄. 차트상으로는 반도체 전반 하락 압력 속 200일 지수이동평균 부근 반등 시도, 145달러(0.618 피보나치) 이탈 시 하락 우려, 163달러 돌파 시 상단 테스트 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
shares of Nvidia hitting a 3-week low to kick off the month this morning this comes amid broader pressure on the chip sector following those Nvidia earnings the next big test for semiconductors we've got broadcom earnings expected this Thursday after the close so can broadcom meet the moment and reunite the hype around the chips that power AI joining us to discuss we've got Stacy Raz gone he is a senior analyst over at Bernstein Stacy it's always a pleasure to speak with you so I know you've got an outperform here on broadcom what are you expecting as we head into those earning on Thursday yeah you bet so I I like broom brom's got a few pieces so they do have the AI story which I was classifi as the second best AI story in the space they make chips for the hyperscalers like Google and meta that are actually working working on their own chips broad come does that design work for them they've also got a big play in AI networking um couple things that I like about it going into the print so I feel like their AI guidance for the year has been reasonably conservative they're guiding 11 billion for the full year which is a run rate in the second half that's actually a little lower than where they were running in Q2 so that that feels like a decent setup on the AI front and while their core business has not been great this year this is they're not the only ones it's sically low I think they've cut it enough um Marvel's earnings last last week were a little supportive there some of their end customers have reported um I think that setup into next year looks good in the meantime the AI piece has been strong enough to bridge any issues with the core business so their numbers have still been going up rather than down they've also started um not even started they've also got a pretty sizable software story they just bought a company called VMware which does um uh virtualization um I feel like that there is probably upside as you look through expectations for the software business as we go into next year the numbers are are are very I think that are currently in the cide numbers very conservative I think there's good upside on the on the software and if just look more broadly I I would say it's it's got some of the best operating metrics margins and free cash and everything else in in the space by a by a mile and it's still very inexpensive it's did a pretty sharp discount to the to the broader semiconductor space um for a company with again it's almost half software great AI story um feels like the multiple um is is easily supported I think at current levels I actually really like broadcom chart analysis and leave your thoughts in the comment section below and today the main event risk will be uh the broadcom earnings that are released after the after the closing bell today so as we can see currently we are seeing a wave of downside selling pressure this has been roughly in place ever since the main Nvidia wave of declines has been in place so not totally surprising to see this type of activity here share price activity these companies are essentially operating in the same space broadcom remains one of the best AI plays in the market so not totally surprising to see that there would be some contagion effect from the major sell-off that we've been seeing in Nvidia recently however there is some potential here for the tide to turn as long as the company is able to surprise to the topside and it's in its most recent earnings report in this video we did we did hear mention of marll which is another company that that operates in this space um and their recent numbers were also positive so at this point it is clear that the overall trajectory here for companies that are operating in this space to be outperforming as far as expectations are concerned of course that does not necessarily mean that we will see the same type of activity here with broadcom uh but it does sort of support the expectation here and does make it much more likely that we that we will be seeing positive numbers from this company today so as things currently stand uh we're bouncing a bit off of is Rising blue line at the bottom of the price chart however there is a fair bit of negative momentum here that is still present within the share price itself so we are looking at a medium-term time frame here and if we pull out to the indicator reading we can see in the relative strength index that the dominant Trend in in share price momentum at the moment is still focused on the downside we did have some recent movements to the top side sort of an uh an attempt at generating some positive bullish momentum here but we can see that this action this price activity did start to slow just as the Invidia price declin share price declines were starting to gather speed and grow in intensity so as things currently stand here this this more recent uptrend has been broken and overall the the most recent Trend wave here is still showing that negative momentum is influencing this stock so these are a few factors that need to be kept in mind here currently to the downside what I would be watching for if we did see a negative number perhaps would be a potential break below the 145 level of course if we did break below here this would mean that the psychological region at 150 would also have to be broken but the reason that I would that I would be focusing on 14 145 specifically comes from the fact that this is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the price move from 12850 to 17242 so that would be the most recent price low which was generated during the August five trading session uh and then this is a price move that extended then to the recent price Highs coming in during the August 22 trading session so as things stand here overall broadcom has has fallen victim to the broader forces that are currently making their way through the market it's a little bit difficult to to sort of avoid these Trends completely given the fact that these companies are so closely related there are a lot of ETFs also that include both of these names uh Nvidia and broadcom so it it still remains to be seen whether or not the market will be happy enough with what it hears even in the event that we do see positive earnings from this company later today so to the downside if we did see a break here this would be the critical price break that I would be looking for uh break below 145 uh however if we do see a strong numbers and a favorable response initial resistance comes in right around 163 essentially this would Mark the price high from August 30th and if we do see a break here uh the ultimate suggestion would then be that we would be in store for another retest of the of these prior Highs at 14 uh at 17242 that's the August 22nd price high so overall this is the key Line in the Sand to the top side if we were able to see a break here there is a bit of resistance that is still found at 17710 this would be the price high from the July 11 trading session if anybody has been following this uh this sector closely uh you'll probably remember that July 11 is really the day uh that the tide started to turn for the technology space and we started to see kind kind of a rampant selloff uh within the technology space things started to become incredibly uncertain during that period of time so this is the main reason that I would be focusing on this area as the next potential region to the top side essentially this area does also Mark a triple top resistance Zone uh that does sort of stand in the way of the next upside retest of the stocks all-time highs which came in at 18516 this would be the price high from the middle of June 2024 so here are some of the price levels that I'm watching currently what we're contending with is a potential break below the exponential moving average at at the 200 period EMA uh so that would that would be a bit of a a bit of a problem heading into earnings if we do see that uh but currently what we're looking at here is a green candle so we're seeing we're seeing a bit of topside here uh so this does suggest that the market could continue to be supported into the release of these earnings numbers later to]
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