Chamath Palihapitiya on Rewiring Our Brains for Long-Term Investing

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장기 복리 투자의 중요성을 강조한 영상이다. 핵심 주장: 빠른 부 축적보다 느리고 신중한 복리 투자가 중요하며, 사업과 자산 모두 장기적 관점이 필요하다고 주장. 근거 사례: Chamath는 사업의 '반감기'(성장 후 파괴까지 걸리는 기간)가 짧다는 점을 언급하며, 해자를 쌓는 느린 구축이 생존에 유리하다고 설명. 복리 예시로 2,000달러를 0세에 투자해 65세까지 연 10%면 약 100만 달러, 연 15%면 약 1,700만 달러라는 계산을 제시. 행동 지침: 소셜미디어 알림이 즉각적 보상(도파민)에 뇌를 길들이므로 소셜앱을 끄고 내적 동기를 찾으라고 권고. 기대수익률: 연 8~10%는 다소 약하며, 연 15~25% 정도가 현실적이면서도 달성 가능한 목표라고 봄(Monish Pabrai의 연 26% 언급). 리스크: 기술주 섹터는 기회가 많지만 투자자 손실 가능성이 높은 기업도 많아 옥석 가리기가 어렵다고 경고. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 예측이나 목표가는 제시되지 않음. 진행자는 Chamath 관련 추가 영상을 시청자에게 추천.

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01. hey what's up stock compounders brad here so today i watched a video by chamath i'm not even going to try to say his last name he's the ceo of a company called social capital and he's really trying to put together something similar to what warren buffett built with with berkshire hathaway and he's trying to do it more with technology companies which is something that obviously warren buffett didn't really venture into for the vast majority of berkshire hathaway but chamath did a talk last year and he had some awesome points in the talk that i wanted to cover in the video today he really talks about the power of slow compounding okay which is such a powerful concept particularly today when it's very easy to think it's easy to lose sight of kind of getting rich slow when there's just so much there's so much fomo there's so much impatience to a mass wealth so i just want to talk about some of the points that chamath made in this talk here so the question he got today what is one of the best ways to amass capital okay that's what he was asked he said if you ask me who's building the most important indelible company in the world it's jeff bezos with amazon part of what he realized is the value of slow compounding the faster you build a business so the the half-life is basically how long it takes to build the business so you know it's going to get destroyed in that same amount of time so if you you know if you push on all cylinders and you build a great business in five years that's about how long it's going to take to get destroyed uh and it's it's counter intuitive thinking that way um but you know part of the resilience of a business is building it slowly and thoughtfully and you know really putting all of the pieces in place to you know give that business a moat to give it some competitive advantage to allow it to endure for many years and i really like that way of thinking about you know not just growing a business but growing wealth right he says amassing capital to me is about finding a smart useful solution to a very hard practical problem and being slow and methodical okay you have to rewire your brain for that to be okay uh particularly he talks about social media and how you know when when we post on social media we want that quick hit we want that immediate feedback that people are liking what we're putting out on social media and that behavior wires our brains to really seek those immediate feedbacks and if we don't get them it's very difficult to stay the course and build something slowly not knowing how it's going to work out so uh he said fast money returns can completely decay long-term thinking and sound judgment right so chasing that quick buck uh it's just it really works against our psychology of being successful long-term investors uh and i thought this was interesting he says i would really love to compound at 15 per year because if i could do that for 50 years and he threw out a figure that's 250 billion dollars i'm imagining you know he's basing that on on what he's starting with today but do the math yourself in the video i made the last video i made i talked about you know if you invest two thousand dollars or if someone invested on your behalf when you're born okay age zero by the time you're 65 you know if you grow it at 10 percent per year you've got a million dollars so 2 000 to a million in 65 years now if you take that rate of return from 10 to 15 percent the difference is is quite shocking i think it was something like 17 million instead of 1 million just by going from a 10 rate of return to a 15 rate of return and chamath here is saying you know if you can do 15 it doesn't seem necessarily like that much more than 10 percent which is kind of the market average the u.s stock market average over decades but 15 over a long enough period of time i mean it is it is magic um in terms of compounding wealth uh so you know slow and steady against hard problems that's the key uh start by turning off your social apps he is so against uh allowing these social media apps to subconsciously wire our brains for that that fast benefit that quick that quick hit of dopamine right start by turning off your social apps and giving your brain a break discover your own motivation instead of chasing likes what is it that i really want to build right uh rather than just throwing things out there and seeing you know what what people initially like right and i mean do they even really like it how hard is it to push the like button right it's not it's not substantial it's it's not something that will endure so i like that discover your own motivation social media wires your brain for super fast feedback right this is not the way to build a company but it's the same brain right we use the same brain to you know post on social and get this feedback that we use to build a company that we use to invest right that we use to build our investment portfolio over time it's the same brain so even though it's it might be compelling to think all right you know i'm doing this stuff on social right it's harmless it's not going to impact these other areas of my life am i investing my entrepreneurship they're separate well they're not separate because it's the same brain and what impacts it in one area of life you know it's it's it's gonna wire it in a specific way and it's really important to understand how you know the things we're exposed to every day are shaping our psychology um and then lastly we must do everything we can to rewire our brain chemistry to not be short-term focused the reason people chase fast money in the short term is because we think that's the only way to make it we think that's the only way to become financially free become financially independent is to you know run full speed ahead at making as much money money as possible as quickly as possible but you know for those of us who understand the power of compounding we don't need to hit home runs every week every month or even every year we need to stay in the game which means we have to make bets that have high reward to risk right low risk of losing money but we also have to have reasonable return expectations or um you know return ambitions and you know to me eight to ten percent yeah it's a little weak it's it's very difficult to get to the promised land with eight to ten percent annual returns at the same time trying to double my money in a month you know that's probably going to get me into trouble there's probably not a lot of safe opportunities to do something like that um but 15 percent per year or even you know monish pabrai talks about 26 per year which is you know doubling every three years okay so somewhere between that 15 25 you know those those seem much more reasonable to me uh and you know achievable they're a great combination of achievable and realistic right um so yeah really good talk i'm going to link to this snippet it was basically just a question that he answered in one of his talks from 2019.

02. um it's it's just like four and a half minutes and it's there's just so much good stuff in there so highly recommend checking that out i am getting much more interested as i learn more about chamath ceo of social capital what the guy is all about he has some very smart things that he talks about in some of the videos the content that i've consumed from him on youtube so if you guys have any clips any videos that you've seen with chamath that you highly recommend let me know i want to learn more about him i want to learn more about these specs that he's creating that he's building it's possible that he's kind of the modern day warren buffett you know i don't know enough nearly enough about him to say that with any degree of confidence but clearly he has some great experience in the tech world he was an early leader at facebook um and he just you know i i really resonate with the messages that he puts out when he does q and a's or when he does interviews when he does talks because the his goals seem very grounded in reality um but he's also a very smart guy and he's not going to sell himself short or his ambitions short so it's a really interesting combination there and of course the tech sector is um there's so much opportunity uh it's just it's really hard to spot which opportunities are you know worth swinging at versus you know likelihood of of losing money there's a lot of opportunities that are probably going to end up very poorly for investors in the tech sector um but he seems to have a pretty good track record and uh yeah i want to learn more about them so let me know what you guys know i know i'm sure many of you follow chamath so anyway guys that's all i wanted to share for today i hope you enjoyed this again i will link to that that clip from chamath in the description all right guys take care i will see you in the next video