저자: BradKaellner · 외국인
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Brad Kaellner는 Li Lu의 강연에서 소개된 1990년대 러시아 석유주 투자 사례를 정리하며, 극단적 저평가(안전마진 99% 이상)가 위기 상황에서 나올 수 있다는 점을 강조한다. 핵심 사례: 소련 붕괴 후 러시아는 국영 기업을 급속 민영화했고, 일반 근로자에게 주식증서가 배포됐지만 거래소가 없고 증서의 의미를 몰라 헐값에 팔렸다. 이 상황에서 루크오일 등 석유 기업이 자산가치 대비 1센트 이하, 일부 0.5센트에 거래됐다. 가격 근거: 당시 5년 평균 유가는 배럴당 20달러였고, 이익이 아닌 대차대조표상 석유 자산만으로 평가해도 극단적 할인 상태였다. 매도 기준: Li Lu는 주당 약 20센트 수준(자산가치 대비)에서 손익분기 및 매도를 고려했다고 언급되며, 이는 여전히 큰 안전마진이다. 환율 리스크: 러시아는 1993~1998년 사이 통화를 약 90% 평가절하했지만, 1993년에 1센트에 매수했다면 5년간 약 10배 수익이 가능했다고 설명된다. 교훈: 시장 비효율이 극단적일 때 기회가 크며, 과거 사례 연구가 투자자 역량 향상에 중요하다는 주장이다. Brad는 최근 사례(예: 2020년 3월 빌 애크먼의 신용부도스왑 매입)와 최근 저평가 사례를 추가로 찾겠다고 밝힌다. 버크셔 해서웨이·페어팩스 관련 토론도 언급되며, 찰리 멍거의 테네코 투자(1,000만→8,000만 달러) 사례와 그 자금이 Li Lu에게 넘어가 큰 수익을 낸 사례도 함께 소개된다.
다듬은 글
hey what's up stock compounders brad here so i want to build a little bit on the video i did yesterday uh a talk from lee liu in that talk he mentioned one of his best investments that he's ever had it was an investment in russia and it was like a 99 margin of safety that he found there were a number of factors that kind of came together to produce that opportunity but first i want to give a shout out to investing with tom who made a video yesterday about one of charlie munger's picks teneco charlie munger invested 10 million in that company and walked away with 80 million just a few years later so i think that's a fantastic example and it's you know not not so dissimilar from from the example i'm going to share today of what lilu found and of course charlie munger and lilu are connected right charlie munger actually has about a third of his family assets invested with lilu which is a huge testament to lilu but yeah so let's let's go through uh this article kind of talking about this russian investment that lilu was able to find back in the 1990s but first so what started lilu's career was really meeting warren buffett buffett came as a guest lecturer to columbia business school where lilu was studying uh in 1993 it's funny he actually went to the stock because he thought his friend said there was a free lunch buffet not you know come meet warren buffett this fantastic investor so he showed up because he thought there was going to be a free lunch buffet along with an opportunity to learn how to make some money and it's a good thing he went because it really kind of paved the way for lilu's investing career so let's talk about this investment in russia so you know lilu was really looking for stocks that were very cheap relative to the assets that they owned um right the irrationality of the market is always providing opportunities if you know where to look and you're willing to do the work right so one example he's referred to many times is in the 1990s oil stocks in russia so deep value is often born in crisis right that that's obvious to us value investors when blood is running in the streets that's when the best deals can be found so the ussr had just fallen and the newly born russia was undergoing capitalist shock therapy quickly privatizing the previously government-owned conglomerates there wasn't a stock exchange regular citizens and workers of these huge state conglomerates received stock certificates essentially the problem is they had no idea what a stock certificate was so you know they're looking at these pieces of paper like they're worthless so you've got lack of liquidity you've got an absence of a marketplace right and general uncertainty around russia so those are the factors that all came together to produce this situation where these companies were trading at huge discounts so lilu recounts this experience forget about earnings just consider the assets on the balance sheet at the time the five year average for oil prices was twenty dollars per barrel and on a per share basis they were trading for as low as one cent on the dollar so a 99 margin of safety sometimes half a cent 99 and a half percent margin of safety and that's not even counting the earnings from the company this is just based on the assets these barrels of oil that the that the company has right nothing to do with future earnings um right what made these stocks very cheap yeah at the end of the day they were still huge companies right they had monopolies in the russian oil and gas sectors so this is uh luke oil was was the one of the companies that had a monopoly in the oil sector and that's the one that lilu invested in um right so you know when you can buy for a cent on the dollar lilu actually mentioned in the talk yesterday that you know he was buying for half a cent to a cent on the dollar and you know he was comfortable selling when it got to about 20 cents on the dollar right so you know that's a 20 to 40 x jump but still 20 cents on the dollar you know for a lot of people that that's still a huge margin of safety but of course lilu had to factor in you know what was happening in russia at the time so much uncertainty so kind of that 20 margin was where yeah that was his break even that's where he was no longer comfortable holding this investment opportunity but certainly if you can get in at uh one cent or half a cent still a very compelling opportunity uh right so russia devalued its currency by 90 from like 1993 to 1998 even if you had bought in in 1993 you know for a penny on the dollar you still had a 10x gain in those five years even with the currency being devalued by 90 so that's it's it's a crazy it's a crazy opportunity and there's another uh article i'll link to this one as well uh kind of you know it shares most of the same information but kind of a slightly y'all just read this this section from lilu here as some of you may know in the early 90s russia went through a shock therapy became a free market almost overnight in a short period of time they privatized some of the most prized state assets including luke oil and gazprom so oil and gas and major companies it was so short so short of a time that most people didn't even understand what was happening right a lot of the people who worked in those companies were given certificates that could be converted to stock ownership but most people didn't know what they were getting okay so somebody could come along with real cash say hey here i'm going to give you a cent on the dollar for this stock certificate i'm like sure i'd much rather have cash than this piece of paper that i have no idea i have no idea what it is or what it's worth so you've got assets trading at extraordinary discounts um yeah so point of this story is not to encourage you to travel to far-flung locations and buy physical stock certificates from unsuspecting locals this extreme example illustrates a number of basic truths about value investing markets can be extremely inefficient and those who do their homework can profit immensely in these circumstances so in the talk yesterday one of the biggest takeaways for me watching lilu's talk from 2012 at san francisco state university is if he were starting all over again right lilu said i would study all the great examples in the past in which markets went to the extreme in some small segment of securities that give you a tremendous margin of safety so study where those dislocations have happened in the past and then study what might be available today right so by studying past examples you're kind of building a framework for what has already happened right you know the things don't repeat in the markets but you know the future tends to rhyme with the past so if we can really drive in if we can learn from these things that have happened in the past ideally not the very distant past um you know it reminds me of what just happened in march with with bill ackman right buying credit default swaps on the bond market that's a very recent example now i'm not totally sure how you know a small investor would would you know try to try to benefit from a similar market dislocation but i'm sure there are ways so just studying past examples of where this has happened so yeah this is what i wanted to share guys i want to dive into more examples like this hopefully more recent examples hopefully some examples maybe in the us as well because you know i i don't love the idea of traveling to some country that you know went through something similar to what russia went through in the 1990s that doesn't seem very feasible but you know it's it's an example and there's a ton of examples like this so i'm really going to be trying to find more examples of these major market dislocations where you could have bought assets at a a real extreme margin of safety if you guys can think of any examples like that let me know in the comments i'd really appreciate you know any any info you can share and i think i'm going to pose this question as well on corner of berkshire and fairfax there was actually a pretty interesting dialogue happening after this lilu talk talking about the situation in russia on corner of berkshire and fairfax there were people kind of looking into these opportunities in real time back in 2012 and 2013 on corner of berkshire and fairfax so you know i'm going to pose the question you know trying to find these recent extreme examples of mispriced securities so i'll keep you guys posted on that i'm excited to see what comes of that but again if you can think of any examples if if any come to mind please let me know in the comments and i will highlight some of those stories for for all of you because this is one of the best ways to to become a better investor right is to learn from you know great investors who have hit these home runs in the past it's one of the most focused precise ways to become a better investor in my opinion and again check out that video yesterday from investing with tom that's exactly what he's doing in that video really laying out uh that example from charlie munger back in the early 2000s and what's interesting about that and tom mentions this after charlie munger got that you know 8x turned 10 million into 80 million charlie munger gave that 80 million to lilu and i think lilu turned it into like four or five hundred million so just an insane you know couple of home runs back to back can do incredible things to your portfolio so anyway guys just wanted to share that again i will link these two articles in the description
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