저자: DylanLoomis · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 2022년 EPS 추정치(약 11.99달러) 대비 과도하게 낮다는 주장, 1분기 실적 연환산 시 추정치 상향 가능성 제기. 테슬라 AI 칩(트립 칩) 및 GPT 유사 모델 운용 언급. 상하이 공장 3교대 정상화 가능성, 기가 베를린 노조 움직임, USPS 전기차 비중 확대, 포드 노조 임금 인상과 전기차 투자 계획 소개. 짐 파를리의 가격 전쟁·업계 통합·중국 업체 부상 전망과 딜러 모델 변화 언급.
다듬은 글
quick shout out to my newest patrons joachim h and michael l thank you guys for choosing to support the channel first up today absolutely love this chart from gary black and the future fund from their webinar the other day the white line is tesla stock price dating back to 2020 and the red line is going to be tesla's fiscal year 2022 earnings per share estimate over that same time frame as you can see at the most recent time it's currently sitting at 11.99 per share and just one year ago tesla's 2022 eps estimate was 6.47 or from where it stands today it's currently up 85 so being revised upward however i think you know where i'm going with this you see this discrepancy here between the current stock price and tesla's 2022 eps estimates huge gap where has that happened before looking back well it hasn't what does that mean opportunity just as always be patient but capitalize on these opportunities and remember if the bloomberg estimate is currently 11.99 if you take quarter one numbers and just annualize it whether gap or non-gaap that's going to already put you right in that 12 neighborhood and yes q2 might be a little lower but looking at q3 and q4 i think there's a decent amount of upside for tesla to beat these estimates now this is just an anecdote from i like piano black on twitter but they're showing their model 3 with 300 000 miles and all they had to replace was a suspension they do mention 20 battery degradation but don't really share where they're getting that are they just calculating the estimated range by the original epa estimate because we know that's not going to be the most accurate way to do it however point here is that yes there are some teslas out there with this type of mileage that haven't needed a new battery pack and have held up very well marco rp who follows new supercharger locations shared this new stack charge company apparently building this new facility with 32 superchargers and eight dc fast chargers so i did a little digging so clearly this is a brand new startup type of company and the website basically has no information effectively i wasn't able to find anything about tesla or superchargers so i'm not positive where marco got that information so a company to watch but this first location is set to be right between las vegas and los angeles right here this tweet from elon is crucial for us tesla investors to remember for the future he says i never wanted to be ceo running companies hurts my heart but i don't see any other way to bring technology and design to fruition so my personal belief is that if elon does step down from his official role at tesla sometime this decade he will then have a way for maybe the first time to actually work on these technologies and designs behind the scenes because tesla will be so elon eyes when it comes to the culture and by that time whenever it may come tesla will be such a beast of a company that elon can then focus on what he wants to focus on actual engineering here's elon with a subtle ai flex saying we're using more gpts or regenerative pre-trained transformers as they now run natively on tesla trip chip which is just a chip on tesla's hardware 3 fsd computer instead of needing to do a round trip to the gpu now the short takeaway here is what tesla is doing is going to reduce the latency and improve the efficiency and elon said yes to this comment the trip chip is the ai chip that eliminates the need for an external gpu the trip chip will perform ai computation cutting down the latency to and from the gpu and the trip chip is built for heavy duty ai workloads must be a huge improvement compared to nbsb on mb latency right elon this right here could either be northbridge southbridge on the motherboard dealing with communication or it could be narrow bandwidth switch port bandwidth dealing with latency so i can't confirm for sure either way and carpathi has mentioned this before saying a gpt like transformer is now predicting the lanes and their connectivity you may have heard of gpt-3 which is open ai's third generation of this gpt it's basically a neural network deep learning model that will encode and decode human text so you can feed in an article let's say and then it'll spit out a summary of that article or you can feed it part of a sentence and then it will predict the rest of that sentence now to be clear i'm very confident tesla is not actually using gpt-3 they're just using their own version of one of these generative pre-trained transformers and if any of you actual machine learning experts can translate this a bit better than i have do so in the comments i'll go through and pin one if people seem to agree that it is accurate so thank you in advance moving on calvin yang says tesla shanghai factory to end the closed loop production system and resume the normal three shifts of work soon we did see articles talking about june 10th for that date but kelvin didn't share a date for his update no surprises here as ig matal is looking to use this elon work at home situation to swoop in and try to win over more of the employees at giga berlin egamital's district leader says whoever does not agree with such one-sided demands and wants to stand against them has the power of unions behind them in germany as per law employees at giga berlin did elect 19 people to its first workers council back in february but remember a workers council is not the same thing as a union and in germany there are currently no laws enshrining a right to work from home but the labor ministry is working on policies that would increase flexibility for workers so once again just another thread to keep an eye on we get an update in the ongoing saga of usps trying to buy its next generation delivery vehicles what happened is in april there were 16 states four environmental groups and the uaw who filed a lawsuit against usps for basically looking to buy mostly gas vehicles for these new generation vehicles so now usps is looking to change its course based on the pushback alone basically now usps looking to buy at least 10 percent evs postal service is exploring accelerating production of that initial 10 000 bev order toward the front and anticipates taking advantage of the flexibility built into the contract with oshkosh to increase the number of bevs purchased in the initial delivery order usps expecting to receive about 5 000 next-gen vehicles in 2023 hopefully as they say most of these are evs and about 21 000 annually after that here we have ford making some moves and speaking the truth looking to add about 6 200 union jobs in the midwest as it revamps three factories to build new evs and yes some more gas powered models the 3.7 billion dollars will go toward a retooling plant and building a new commercial electric vehicle and all new versions of the gas powered mustang and ford ranger and of course for looking to increase production of the f-150 lightning no word on what this new commercial ev will be but production should begin mid-decade at an existing plant in ohio and in a big win for the union around 3 000 temporary factory employees will be made full-time hourly ahead of a scheduled negotiation with the uaw they will get pay raises and health care benefits immediately now this is out of the ordinary as most of the time these automakers don't give concessions until the renewal process comes up which for ford and the uaw isn't until september 2023 so maybe ford looking to build some goodwill with the uaw as there's been some fears that ford's new eevee factories in kentucky and tennessee will not be union plants and jim farley gave us some new insight saying he expects the cost of building evs to fall in the coming years low enough to sell some evs like now the bolt in the 25 000 range he noted the mustang monkey starts around 45k but the battery pack alone costs ford eighteen thousand 000 to build and perhaps most importantly he says there's going to be a huge price war and guess who has the most ammo in a price war like this the company with the highest margins and yes we already know who that is tesla and farley said he expects to see industry consolidation happen at nearly every level in the coming years and that chinese companies could be among the big winners no doubt about it we're going to see a very large consolidation he said i just don't see the addressable market these companies are going after being big enough to justify the capital they're spending i would guess he's referring to companies like rivian and lucid he said chinese eviemakers are poised to make big gains in the north american market many players in the chinese market have very low ed manufacturing costs and have not yet looked into exporting there's a shakeout coming he said i feel like that shakeout is going to favor many of the chinese new players and lastly this right here is going to be the massive war taking place over the next few years he says we've got to go to non-negotiated price we've got to go to 100 online no inventory at dealerships it goes directly to the customer 100 remote pickup and delivery i think our dealers can do it he says but the standards are going to be brutal they're going to be very different than they are today i personally think this is part of why ford is splitting up its divisions into the model e and ford blue model e being for evs this might give them a workaround saying that model e this new division can have a different type of relationship with the dealership network but you better believe there's going to be many lawsuits in the years to come and there's plenty of political money backing these lawsuits and dealerships ford estimates that its distribution model costs about two thousand dollars more per vehicle than tesla's non-dealer approach and he says if you ever see ford motor company doing a super bowl ad on our electric vehicles sell the stock he said our model is messed up we spend six or seven hundred dollars on the vehicle to promote it and we spend nothing post warranty on the customer experience so this is all great because farley clearly gets it he knows where ford needs to go the problem is can he take them there because there's so much entrenched bureaucracy and political money as i said behind the dealerships and in this legacy system it's going to be a wild ride and he said ford has to be radical on its quality and to reduce the prices of the batteries all of which will require that the company hire top talent from the likes of apple and tesla even if they make 10 times what i do so here you have it jim farley saying consolidation and shake-ups and price wars and dealership battles all are about to happen he said the focus will probably be more on mergers than joint ventures because he said partnerships are hard we've been in business for 118 years and we probably have one partnership that worked really well so all i have to say not glossing over all the job loss and pain that will ensue from this revolution and upcoming battles however things are definitely heating up and it's going to be incredibly exciting to watch and ultimately in the end once again the customer will win and there's going to be plenty of shake up in the next few years and not to get all in my feels here but i just have to say i'm so incredibly grateful to be here covering this revolution with you guys the community i'm truly so so grateful so on that note please take a second to
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