저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
투자 성패는 시장이 아니라 투자자의 심리에서 갈린다는 주장. 초보 실수 5가지(목표 없는 투자, 위험 무시, 빠른 수익 욕심, 타이밍 시도, 학습 중단)를 계획 부재와 감정적 결정으로 분류. 군중심리와 손실회피 편향을 핵심 심리 함정으로 제시하고, 변동성과 영구적 자본 손실을 구분해야 한다고 설명. 50% 손실 회복에 100% 수익이 필요하다는 수학적 예시와 2차 사고, 역발상 투자 강조. Howard Marks의 시장 사이클론과 40년(1982~2020s) 금리 하락기가 끝나 새로운 환경에 들어섰다는 'Sea Change' 주장을 소개.
다듬은 글
There is a question that always keeps revolving in my mind. There is only one stock market. The rules are the same for everyone and nowadays you know information is also at almost everyone's fingertips. Then why is it that some people earn crores from this market? Whereas most people either lose money or just stay where they are.
What puzzle is this? This is perhaps the biggest question in the world of investment and its answer is not hidden in any formula or tip. Today we will try to solve this puzzle and the sources we have are very interesting. On one side is an article by Armony that lists the mistakes beginners make. Ok.
On the other hand, we have the essence of the thoughts of legendary investor like Howard Marks and amidst all this, there is the book of Parag Parikh which tells us that the real fight is not with the market but with our own mind. That means the real game is more about psychology than strategy. So let's first look at the seven symptoms that we call mistakes.
But remember, as you said, these are just symptoms. The real disease is hidden somewhere else and that is inside our minds. Of course, if we look at Armani's article, it mentions five common mistakes. We can divide them into two major categories. Good. The first category is unplanned planning, meaning just jumping in.
Yes. There are two mistakes in this. Investing without a goal. It is just like you have left home but don't know where to go. Meaning if you need money for a car in 3 years, the strategy will be different. Of course then you might want to look at liquid funds. But if you are investing for retirement after 20 years, the picture changes completely.
Correct. And the second mistake in this category is probably ignoring risk. Yes. And this is the most dangerous. People think they have found a hot stock and invest all their money in it. Exactly, people often misunderstand the meaning of diversification. Many people think they have diversified by buying 10 different tax stocks.
Whereas in reality they are in the same boat. Caught it right. If there is a storm in the tax sector, everyone will sink. The real diversification happens across asset classes. Some money in equities, some in bonds, some in gold to keep the boat balanced. Absolutely. Ok. So the first category is lack of planning and what is the second category?
The second category is decisions made based on emotions. We fit the remaining three mistakes here. Like the desire to make quick profits. People hear stories of becoming rich overnight and out of fear of being left behind, they buy any stock at any price. Yes. They forget that patience and compounding are what create real wealth.
And the other aspect of this is trying to time the market. We all think that he will buy at the lowest point. And will sell at the highest point which you know is almost impossible. Yes. I remember that famous statement of Warren Buffett. The stock market is a means of transferring money from impatient people to patient people.
That's correct. And finally, the fifth mistake is avoiding continuous learning. The market is like a flowing river. It always keeps changing. He who stops learning gets stuck on the sidelines. So these are the symptoms of lack of planning and emotional decisions. Now let's come to the real disease. Parag Parik says that the biggest enemy of an investor is himself.
This sounds a bit strange. But this is 100 percent true. It is our mental structure that forces us to make mistakes in investing. For example, take herd mentality. When we see everyone buying a particular stock, we think there must be something to it. Yes, I feel a sense of security that even if I drown, I will not drown alone.
That's exactly what psychological safety is. I remember this happening in the dot bubble of 2000 or some of the recent meme stock crazes. Everyone was buying just because others were buying. Yes, and the crowd often runs towards the rock. This is where Warren Buffett's theory of second level thinking comes into the picture.
We are second level thinking. This is the art of thinking differently from the crowd. Let's unpack this a little more. What is the real difference between first level and second level thinking? First level thinking is straightforward and superficial. Like this is a great company. Its business is growing.
Let's buy its stock. It's easy to think that. is very easy. And most people stop there. And what will a second level thinker think? A second-level thinker will go a step further. He will say yes this is a great company. But because it's so amazing, everyone is talking about it. Ok. The market has priced it in so high that all the good news of the future is already factored in.
There is no margin of safety in buying at this price. So he'll probably think about selling it. Exactly. It's about thinking not just about the company but about how the market thinks about the company. But this sounds very difficult. Meaning, how can a common investor who does not have time to watch the market all day develop this deep understanding?
This is a very good question. It is definitely difficult but not impossible. It starts with simple questions. When [sound of clearing throat] you're going to make an investment, ask yourself what I know about this stock that the market doesn't. In most cases the answer will be nothing. Yes, and it keeps you from becoming overconfident.
Second-level thinking is n't about always being right, but about understanding when you might be wrong. This is a huge mental shift. And are there any other mental traps that investors fall into ? Another very powerful trap is Lose a Version. Loss aversion tendency. Yes. Psychological studies show that a loss of ₹1000 gives us almost twice as much pain as a profit of ₹1000.
We hate loss. Too much and its impact on investment decisions can be devastating. How is that? Due to this fear, people keep postponing selling their loss-making shares. He hopes it will come back up one day. And they turn a small defeat into a big defeat. Absolutely. And on the other hand, as soon as a stock gives a little profit, they sell it quickly.
For fear that this profit may be lost. Yes, they sell their winning horses early and continue betting on the losing ones. So we talked about how our brain deceives us. Now let's talk about risk. We talked about risk management in the beginning. But most people consider the daily fluctuations of the market as risk.
Is this correct? No, this is a huge misunderstanding. This is explained very well in an article by NISM. Ok. We need to understand the difference between volatility and risk. And what is the difference between these two? Volatility means volatility is simply a measure of the daily fluctuations in prices.
This is the nature of the market. Like his breath. We're down 2% in the market today. It could be up 3% tomorrow. This is temporary. If you have a good company, volatility can be your friend. Gives you the opportunity to buy cheaply. Absolutely. So what is the real risk? If volatility is not a risk.
The real risk is the permanent loss of your capital. Permanent loss of capital. Good. This happens when the fundamentals of the company deteriorate. He has a lot of debt. Its management may be corrupt or its business model may become irrelevant. If the stock of such a company falls, it may never come back.
Never. This is real risk, not the everyday noise of the market. This means that our focus should be on avoiding this permanent loss rather than increasing profits. Absolutely. And the math behind it is very interesting. How is that? Suppose your investment of ₹100 falls by 50% to ₹50. Now you don't need a 50% return to bring it back to ₹100.
1 minute. Yes. 50% of ₹50 is just ₹25. That means you will reach only ₹75. Caught it right. You need a return of 100% to make ₹50 back to ₹100. Oh, he'll have to double it. Yes. Yes, if your investment falls by just 20% to ₹80, then only a 25% return is required to bring it back to ₹100. This is shocking mathematics.
Meaning, to cover a loss of 50%, a profit of 100% is required. This one thing alone can change your entire perspective towards investment. How important is downside protection? This is why great investors always think about avoiding losses first. And from this thinking comes the strategy of contrarian investing.
That means going against the crowd. We but be greedy when others are fearful. This is easy to say. Very difficult to do. Couldn't this strategy be like holding a knife while being scared? Great question. A true contrarian doesn't buy just because prices are falling. So then he buys because prices have gone way below the company's true value.
he does his homework. He looks at whether the fundamentals of the company are still strong? Is this fear just due to market sentiment or is there a real problem in the company? It is foolish to catch a falling knife. But if a gold coin is lying on the ground and people are not picking it up out of fear, then it is wise to pick it up.
Absolutely. So we controlled our thinking, understood the risks correctly and also gathered the courage to go against the crowd. What have we accomplished? Or is there a bigger picture that we are ignoring? There is a bigger picture and that is understanding market cycles. Market Cycles Yeah, Howard Marks says the market is like a pendulum that's always swinging between two extremes.
From extreme optimism i.e. greed to extreme pessimism i.e. fear. And he never stops for long in between. Never. And how do these cycles work? Can we identify which part of the cycle we are in? Marks has described three phases of a bull market. The first stage begins when only a few sensible people believe that things will improve.
While most people are still scared. Yes, the second stage comes when most investors start realizing that a correction is underway and start buying. And the third and most dangerous stage is when everyone becomes convinced that things will always get better and prices start skyrocketing. And the common investor probably invests the most money in this third stage.
Of course, when taxi drivers and your relatives start giving you stock tips, then understand that we are in the third stage. Yes, successful investors become most cautious at this stage. They try to understand where we are in this pendulum swing? And in this context, Howard Marks has recently talked about a revolutionary change i.e.
Sea Change. This seems like a very big statement. What does it mean? This is perhaps the most important memo of his career. He believes that the last 40 years, roughly from 1982 to 202, was an extraordinary and golden period for investors. Good. She compares it to the moving walkways at airports. Even if you just stand on it, you move forward.
And if you are walking, your speed doubles. Absolutely. This is a great analogy. And what was this moving walkway ? This was the continuously falling interest rates. Yes, in the early 1980s, interest rates in America were in double digits and from there they came down to almost zero. When interest rates fall , the price of every asset automatically looks higher on paper.
This made loans cheaper for companies. Increased their profits and sent share valuations skyrocketing. It was the wind that steered every investor's boat. Whether he is a good sailor or a bad one. And Marks is saying that now that moving walkway is closed. Not only has it stopped but it has probably started moving in the opposite direction.
We have entered a new era of rising inflation and high interest rates after decades. This means that the support which had increased everyone's returns for the last 40 years has now been removed. Yes. Yes, this means that strategies that have worked in the last 40 years, like buy the dip, may not necessarily work the same way in the future.
This is his biggest message. Now investors will not have to rely only on walkways. Now the real skills will be tested in second level thinking and risk management. Now just choosing good companies will not be enough. Choosing them at the right price and understanding the economic environment will become more important than ever before .
Absolutely. And this brings us back to our first point. How important it is to keep learning continuously. Wow! So where did today's discussion start and where did it reach? We looked at five superficial mistakes as symptoms and then understood the real disease, that is, our mental biases. Hmm. We learned the art of second-level thinking, understood the fine line between volatility and real risk, and saw how mathematically [musically] important it is to avoid losses.
And finally, we saw that understanding the larger market cycles and recognizing that we may be entering a completely new economic era. How important it is. The entire discussion is perhaps best summed up in the words of Parag Parikh. What? Before we can beat the market, we have to beat our own thinking.
Today's conversation leaves me with a thought to ponder. If we are truly in a new economic era, where the winds of the last 40 years are no longer blowing in our favor, what is one deeply held belief about investing that you formed in the previous environment that you now need to seriously question?
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