저자: AngeloZeno · 외국인
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엔비디아 2분기 실적이 매출 135억 달러(예상 110억 대비 상회), 데이터센터 매출 103.2억 달러(전년比 171%)로 호조. 3분기 가이던스 160억 달러(±2%)는 예상 125억 대비 크게 상회. 자사주 매입 250억 달러 승인. 애널리스트는 AI 가속기 시장이 2026~2027년 1300억 달러 이상으로 성장할 수 있다고 전망하며 장기 상승 여력을 강조. 공급 제약은 있으나 수요가 공급을 초과하고 있다고 평가. 경쟁 및 중국 규제, 가격 하락 등 순환적 리스크는 존재한다고 언급.
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in video with its second quarter results and look at that we're looking at gains of just about six and a half percent here in extended trading another huge report here from the chip maker a lot of this game that we're seeing in after hours is because of that massive forecast that they're giving here for third quarter Revenue 16 billion plus or minus two percent the S man was for 12 and a half billion we take a look at the numbers for its second quarter Revenue coming in better than expected 13 and a half billion estimate was for just over 11 billion that's up 101 on a year-over-year basis record data center revenue of 10.32 billion the estimate was for 7.98 billion that's up 171 from a year ago Gaming revenue two and a half billion beating the streets expectations adjusted EPS also coming in better than expected 2.70 Nvidia also approving an additional 25 billion in share BuyBacks let's break it all down for that we want to Angelo Zeno cfra research senior Equity analyst Angelo good to see you here an extremely strong report from Nvidia what do you think of it your first take another fantastic I mean you know you know clearly as far as the quarter is concerned it was all about the data center side of things you kind of broke down the numbers extremely well and you kind of look at where data center landed at about 10.3 billion um that compares to about 4.3 billion just in the prior quarter and um you know to your point I grew north of 100 170 percent our view was it was it would come in at around 8 billion so you know north of 25 higher than what we anticipated on that side I think I think also you know on the gaming side of things it also looked really good grew about 22 year of the year uh we were looking for growth of about 15 that was the first quarter gaming actually saw it grow um in in the five quarters so I mean it was good to see kind of a return to year over year uh growth on that side of things so clearly due to some easy comps on that side and then of course some term in terms of the guidance I mean absolutely fantastic looking at a 16 billion dollar run rate now you're talking about a company you that's now annualized kind of running at a revenue clip of North of 60 billion right so um it's just absolutely astonishing how quickly the revenue trajectory of this company has grown here over the last two to three quarters so Angelo when you think about Nvidia it's kind of like the I keep thinking kind of these Olympic analogy it's like the Usain Bolt in this space you've had a 500 price Target on this it's clearly going to Eclipse that based on where it is and after hours trading uh how much further do you see this stock running I think that's a good that's a good thing I mean I think kind of what everyone's kind of thinking about these days is uh you know Nvidia is clearly kind of entrenched in a highly cyclical industry I I will say this there are parts of nvidia's kind of guidance and revenue trajectory right now that it's cyclically oriented and then there are parts that are uh where you've kind of got a real structural shift and change taking place and um you know just kind of looking in terms of their GPU business right I mean you look at an AI server today you've got about um you know hepu sockets but that you can kind of attach to an AI server where some of those traditional servers you're talking about two gpus so their addressable Market is really growing exponentially here not only here in 2023 but over the next couple of years we think that Trend will continue as a bigger percentage of the server Market becomes AI driven in nature we've kind of seen some of the forecasts that have been driven out there by the likes of Lisa Stu and Jensen Wong in terms of how big the Excel rate of Market can be which is really kind of the key kind of you know driver here on the the um as we kind of shift towards you know this more AI enabled market and you know our view is this grows from a mid-30s um Revenue run rate in terms of accelerators to one that that's going to grow north of 130 billion by 2026 2027 so we think there's kind of a real Runway here to continue not only into 2024 but even Beyond there so Angela massive runway for growth but one of the limits and one of the things that we've been talking about over the last couple weeks that's been brought up a number of times by analysts has been this expectation or question about whether or not Nvidia is going to be able to have enough Supply to meet that demand is that an issue how big of a realistic issue do you see that being because it doesn't doesn't okay yeah you look at the guys out there right I mean it definitely seems like uh Taiwan sent me out there is throwing some uh preferential treatment out there to uh to Nvidia so as far as kind of being able to kind of um get access to that Supply it doesn't seem like it's an enormous issue here right now we do think that demand continues to outstrip supply so their numbers could probably be even better than some of the the numbers there they are guiding to but you know that's that's a great problem to have if you're Nvidia and um you know in in many respects it's probably a good problem to have because you don't want to overheat in this market right you know the fear clearly is on a double ordering side of things but when you kind of think about some of the big cloud providers out there and what they need to do to kind of um you know upgrade their infrastructure um again if this isn't going to be a one or two quarter thing this is going to be a multi-year process in terms of our review so um it is somewhat Supply constrained but we don't think it's much of an issue when you kind of look at the guidance that they've been given out there and so to your point about Jensen Wang talking about just this transition that companies are making he said in uh the earnings report quote a new Computing era has begun companies worldwide are transitioning from general purpose to accelerate a Computing and generative AI so when you think about Nvidia and you kind of draw parallels to say the.com era and you know who the leaders were then who would you like in Nvidia to and how much like how long do we think this Runway is going to last especially when we're starting to see a little bit of cracks when it comes to kind of some economic headwinds happening yeah so you know you know when video active to compare them more on the life of some of the the bigger trillion dollar companies you have out there whether it be kind of an apple and what they've done to the mobility error what it what Amazon has kind of done to the e-commerce kind of error out there and we have you know previously stated that Nvidia probably going to be the most important company to civilization here we think over the next five to ten years not necessarily the biggest market cap company but the most important one out there because they are going to drive essentially I mean essentially every single Enterprise company out there on the planet whether directly or indirectly will be exposed to Nvidia here over the uh the next five to ten years it will significantly rely on Nvidia to an extent so um to that extent we would kind of compare them to the likes of an apple uh and Amazon maybe a Netflix position to what they've done on the streaming side of things so that's how I would kind of compare Nvidia relative to some others out there Angela do you see anything stopping this massive boom in spending that we've seen in AI in the hype around it Nvidia being the leader and the fact that given the forecast they're not seeing it slow down anytime soon yeah listen I I think as far as kind of the risks out there for NVIDIA I mean we competitive pressures are not something that that we think is is a major risk out there clearly A and J is coming out with their kind of offering out there and we do love kind of what AMD has the potential to do in 2024 and Beyond with their Mi 300 chip uh let's let's go into roll out here over the next couple of quarters um Intel's got you know some potential out there but nothing we're concerned about as far as kind of the Nvidia story is concerned but you know clearly there is a cyclical risk that you always have to take into account here there is there is kind of uncertainty on the China side of things is there some sort of ban that's that's on the horizon that could have a bigger impact uh nvidia's business over time that does kind of have a potential impact to the addressable Market out there for NVIDIA and then also you know as things eventually start to kind of level off here is there some sort of pricing risk out there in terms of their business clearly they are pricing their gpus at a significant premium right now yeah so there there is going to be at some point some sort of rep down draft for NVIDIA given some of the cyclical nature of this business but that said I mean if you have if you are a true long-term investor kind of looking out over the next three to five years we think there is considerable upside um to the environment trajectory of this company all right Angelo Zeno great to get your perspective cfra research senior Equity analyst thanks thank them
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