저자: Kevin · 외국인
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부동산 시장 점검. 압류 우려는 과장이며 2020년 대비 압류 개시 50% 감소. 목재 가격 급등과 매물 감소로 단기엔 공급 부족에 따른 가격 지지. 모기지 금리가 급등(2.8%→3.9%)하며 장기적으로 구매자 감소 및 가격 하락 압력 우려. 2018년 금리 충격 사례 기준 최대 12~22% 하락 위험을 언급하나 가격 하락 확정은 아님. 인플레이션 지속 여부가 핵심 변수.
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housing market i haven't done a housing market update in a while and y'all know real estate is my favorite pastime i've got over 20 million dollars in real estate personally invested so i got a lot riding on what happens in the real estate market i've also got amazing programs on building your wealth through real estate investing finding deals below market value and professional property management advice so that you can save lots of money renovating homes and even have partnerships with low so check that out link down below so you get special discounts there pays for the program pretty much anyway check that out link down below let's not talk about the housing market okay so a few things we got to talk about all right so housing headwinds we want to talk about positives and negatives and how these things might affect the market so first of all there's a lot of doom and gloom about the repo market about how oh once mortgage forbearance is up everybody's going to get foreclosed on look i called this nonsense during the pandemic because quite frankly it is nonsense most people going through mortgage forbearance aren't getting foreclosed on afterwards they're adding to the loan they're they're forbeared money basically to the back of their loan and potentially they're even refinancing from 30-year fixed rate debt to 40-year fixed rate debt effectively lowering their monthly payment it's kind of like having a let's say a seven year car loan versus a three-year car loan your payment's a lot less right sam and you pay more interest over the life of loan but your payment goes down so really we're not expecting like a boom in foreclosures from the pandemic and quite frankly the data is showing that right now we've had uh 23 203 foreclosure starts in january those don't necessarily mean that they will translate into foreclosures but those have started the legal proceedings oftentimes when people see foreclosure they start paying their mortgage so this doesn't necessarily mean you're going to get this kind of inventory on the market but uh this is this seems like it's up a lot in fact a lot of the sort of fear mongers like to say oh my gosh foreclosure starts are at 23 000 they're up from 10 000 foreclosure starts have doubled since you know and then they'll pick some date during the pandemic like june or july 2020 when we had foreclosure bans right i mean you could say oh my gosh we're up 400 from certain periods of time during the pandemic but this is stupid we should be comparing two before the pandemic and we actually have 50 percent fewer foreclosure starts today in this january uh of 2022 than we had in 2020 so way way fewer repos now we are starting to see some headwinds for housing starts a lot of this in my opinion has to do with lumber so for example the canadian housing market had uh housing starts fall about three percent in december and uh we have a lot of numbers coming out this friday in the united states we're expecting housing starts to actually fall as much as 7.2 in january in the united states and existing home sales to come in 1.3 percent on a month over month decline we're expecting this decline here so existing home sales likely to decline this friday and uh housing starts expected decline quite a bit part of this has to do with the fact that lumber's been skyrocketing we just saw lumber skyrocket 10 in just the last two weeks alone a cnbc released an article today talking about how this is adding about nineteen thousand dollars to the cost of a home which keep in mind the median home price in america is about three hundred fifty thousand dollars so that's a that's a pretty pretty penny there i mean that's that's a big part of the profit margin for a lot of these companies and lumber prices have just gone to the moon uh so so here are some things to consider here are some other things to consider over here though is that right now we have 11.3 fewer listings year over year which when you have less inventory it well less supply means more demand right and prices actually get driven up so even though we're seeing a little bit of a slowdown in new builds we're not seeing new inventory from foreclosures and we're actually selling we're listing fewer homes compared to 2021 so in other words that's supportive to home prices still going up i mean less inventory it's more expensive to build homes it's gotten so expensive to build homes we're actually building less of them so less inventory again less inventory actually coming on the market uh and so of course prices are right now trending nowhere but up uh we've also we're flat on the pending sales territory which means we haven't seen pending sales fall because of prices going up this would mean well if we saw pending sales fall it would mean that buyers are starting to say you know what it's getting too pricey to buy we can't keep buying you start seeing pending sales fall that's a little bit of a red flag of a market starting to cool now we did have eight point nine percent fewer sales in january though that is uh also just like this flat pending sales here this is a little bit of a sign of potentially a little bit of relaxation from buyers but it could be because our supply is lower and that's a little bit of a problem because not only is our supply lower but prices are up about almost 14 year over year so we're not seeing much movement in pending sales coming down price is up 14 as a result we've had about nine percent fewer sales and we're listing fewer properties and all of this together this entire little section here together along with less repos and less starts and higher lumber prices all of this means bottom line less supply and the assumption here is that this is going to increase prices but there's a problem and we're always going to talk about problems okay what makes prices go down well mortgage rates so when mortgage rates go up they put downward pressure on prices and we've got a little bit of an issue here okay so what we're gonna do is we're gonna look at the brown here the brown shows us what's happened with mortgage rates just since december 31st we've gone from a 30-year fixed at about 2.8 to a 30-year fixed at 3.9 percent and we don't expect this pace to slow down this has already slowed down the number of people refinancing homes less refinances might potentially lead some folks to sell but we don't really have a good correlation there less refinances usually just means people have less cash to buy other things like potentially rental properties which could help reduce some of the crazy demand we've seen but could also mean people just have less money to spend on boats or cars or clothing or on stocks so we're seeing refinances decline and this makes sense there might be a brief surge of refinances as some remaining people were like crap i forgot to refinance at 2.8 let me quickly refinance at 3.9 before we go up to 5 that could happen so there could be a little brief surge in refinances but like i mentioned here we're already seeing mortgage applications fall about 8.1 percent so this is going to give us even though we've still got this tight supply this is potentially going to lower our buyer pool so potentially fewer buyers here as these mortgage applications are declining which makes sense because rates are going up when rates go up fewer people can afford to buy now you do still have a lot of buyers in the process in fact some buyers who are pre-approved right now are saying you know what i need to hurry up and get in before rates go up even more and this makes a lot of sense so in the longer term i'm going to put lt here longer term you're going to see less buyers but actually in the short term you're going to see more buyers so you're going to have this really weird thing happen in the short term i expect to see more buyers with less supply so higher prices so prices in the short term because of these things probably up like if somebody's wanting to sell a house now they could probably still do quite well in the longer term if we get less buyers well then we get a question mark what do prices do well it depends less buyers but still increasingly less supply maybe those balance each other out but let's talk a little bit about rate trajectory so for us to try to figure out where rates could go we got to look back at this chart and try to overlay it to what happened in 2018.
in 2018 the 10-year treasury went from 1.5 all the way up to about 3 right now the 10-year treasury sits right here and mortgage rates 30-year mortgage rates tend to trend with the 10-year treasury so if we assume that we follow the same pattern of what happened in 2018 and the 10-year treasury rate goes from 2 which remember it was just 1.5 december 31st it skyrocketed to 2.04 today and if this goes all the way to 3 then we could reasonably expect mortgage rates to go to about 5 this is what happened in 2018.
now what implication did this have on pricing remember in 2018 we didn't have high inflation we didn't have recessionary fears right now markets are pricing in the potential for a 50 chance of recession over the next year that's quite substantial we didn't actually have those fears in 2018 and we had rates rising in a non-inflationary time and inflation was like one and a half percent no big deal it was just a matter of trying to get back to a normal policy stance now if we looked at 2018 as the most recent example of hikes in the 10-year treasury when we last went to about a three percent 10-year treasury we know that mortgage rates ran to about five percent got it so what did that do in the real estate market well in the very very short term in the span of two months real estate prices lost about 12 from their peak in about two months but that was very very very short term that was for about six to ten weeks and we started seeing a rebound so this was actually really neat because by the end of 2018 real estate prices ended up three percent so even though we went through this this maddening rise in interest rates there was still so much demand and enthusiasm and euphoria for real estate the real estate still ended the year up three percent and we did actually start seeing rates normalized closer to 4.25 to 4.5 now why is it that you could see such a dramatic move in real estate prices well because of a rule of 10x see when interest rates go up about one percent we expect that purchasing power tends to go down about 10 so for every one percentage point increase in rates purchasing power based on individuals mortgage their principal interest taxes insurance and hoa dues their purchasing power there for all that together tends to go down about 10 so it made sense that when we saw this 1.2 percent skyrocket in rates that real estate prices lost instantly about 12 percent so active listings had their deals canceled active listings had to quickly reduce their prices and so we saw some drama in the real estate market and a lot of this unfolded really between may and september of 2018 and every area reacted differently but as an active real estate broker at the time this was a very difficult summer flips were difficult to sell it was very difficult to sell anything at what previous properties were selling for because people just couldn't afford it anymore but again we still ended the year up three percent so the question now is uh what kind of headwind could we potentially face and how is that going to affect real estate for all of 2022 so what's wild here is this was a move from 3.8 to 5 in 2018 but look at the move we have right now this delta right here that's this line right here this difference this line right here is a change of not 1.2 percent it's actually a change in rates potentially of 2.2 percent we've already had the jump from 2.8 to almost four so we've almost had this 1.2 percent bump in the span of six weeks if we go to a three percent treasury over the next two months as the federal reserve starts hiking rates and maybe potentially more rate hikes get priced in we don't know if we're gonna hit that three percent treasury but if we hit a three percent treasury that would be a two point two percent mortgage rate shock uh and that could create a potential negative twenty two percent headwind to real estate and so now we got to come back up here and say all right in the short term we might see a lot of buyer demand but in the long term we might see less buyers in the market we combine less buyers with less supply maybe those balance out but do they balance out to the tune of negative 22 if rates went this high maybe rates maybe we'll only have that negative uh that negative 12 percent uh you know effect to pricing because interest rates end up staying stable at about 3.9 to 4 percent where they are now that's possible but if rates keep rising which folks do expect that they will this this is the range of our potential real estate headwind now this doesn't necessarily mean that prices are going to end down 12 to 22 percent this year because look at 2018 2018 we had this 12 temporary shock and then we still ended the year positive in real estate prices so this does not necessarily mean real estate prices are going to fall but this right here is a huge headwind to real estate and we will likely this year see a headwind of between negative 12 to negative 22 offset again by the fact that lumber's more expensive and we have less supply and fewer people are listing homes so we've got some good news helping offset this which is not such good news but we've got some more problems the fact that right now we have an inflation issue in our country and a wage price spiral that has started which these issues could lead to a lot of fear unfortunately in in our economy in general if we get fear and spending starts going down it's likely that fearful folks will also not turn out to be home buyers even with slightly higher rates and if we start seeing buyer demands soften because folks fear that we are going to go into a recession you could potentially see a little bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy here where people think we're going into a recession they think oh maybe now's not a time to buy a house you see less buyers and then you actually see these price drops come to fruition and where the real fear and panic comes is not from my video here the real fear and panic comes from tucker carlson telling you home prices just went down three percent in one month and that starts leading people to wonder oh what's next but i think that is only in the confl i'm calling it the confluence of recession scenario right now the economy's killing it i mean q4 earnings for companies were amazing people are spending money like crazy they're traveling like crazy disney airbnb they're killing it sure there are some signs that things might be settling down and slowing down a little bit but the economy is doing very very well the question is will the economy continue to do well if the federal reserve gets really really aggressive against inflation so bottom line out of all of this you want to know the one thing to pay attention to in terms of what the real estate market's going to do it's this right here that word inflation if inflation continues to soar the fed has to get more aggressive if the fed has to get more aggressive this three percent treasury becomes more of a reality and when we get to three percent treasury in a five percent over here we have a higher likelihood of tucker carlson telling you the bad news about real estate prices and then potentially these numbers here becoming a reality but these will only become a reality in the event that inflation ends up not being transitory so if the federal reserve can get inflation down by playing the wait and see game supply chains catch up everybody chills out about inflation okay prices went up and we're good then maybe things are okay because remember this about inflation folks if i sell you this pen for ten dollars today and next year i sell you this pen for eleven dollars then we had ten percent inflation right this was ten percent inflation well if the year after that i'm still selling the pen for eleven dollars we actually had zero percent inflation so you really have to have increasing prices on top of increasing prices for this real this inflation to continue the problem is right now we we are seeing this so we'll see where things go we're hoping inflation starts peaking maybe in february maybe in march maybe in april if we still have high inflation by then these things are going to become an issue especially those on real estate building your wealth they come with course member live streams where you can ask me questions directly every single day the market is open i will gladly look at your real estate deals as well and folks we'll see the next one thanks bye
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