저자: UnrivaledInvesting채널운영자 · 외국인
요약 보기
Michael Burry의 최신 포트폴리오 변화를 분석한 영상으로, 그는 대규모 매수보다는 소규모 단기 매매를 반복하며 현금을 대부분 보유한 채 시장을 관망하는 것으로 보인다는 결론이다. 포트폴리오 구성 변화 그는 기존 보유 종목 대부분을 매도하거나 크게 줄였고, 이후 Black Knight(합병 차익거래), 알리바바·JD(중국 이커머스), Wolverine Worldwide, MGM Resorts, SkyWest 등을 새로 매수했다. 다만 Black Knight는 인수가 약 85 대비 주가 약 65로 합병 성사 시 수익 여지가 있다고 평가했다. 중국 주식은 4분기 급락 시기(하루 약 20% 하락 사례)에 매수했을 가능성을 언급했다. 포트폴리오 규모와 의미 보유 종목 합계는 약 5,000만 달러 수준으로 추정되며 개인 순자산(약 3억 달러 추정)과 운용 자산(5억~10억 달러 추정) 대비 매우 작다. 이 매수들은 대형 확신 베팅이 아니라 소규모 단기 거래로 해석된다. 현금 보유와 시장 전망 연준의 금리 인상이 지속되고 밸류에이션이 매력적이지 않다고 보며, 그는 여전히 약세 관점이고 현금이 가장 큰 포지션일 것이라고 추정했다. 투자 시사점 포트폴리오 회전율이 높아 바로 따라 할 실행 가능한 정보는 제한적이며, 그의 투자 여정은 발언자와 다를 수 있다고 강조했다. 다만 그가 발굴한 종목을 참고 아이디어로 검토할 수 있다는 입장이다. 발언자 본인 사례 McKesson을 과거 분석한 후 Burry의 매수를 계기로 재검토해 매수했고, 이후 실적이 좋았다고 언급했다.
다듬은 글
it might seem strange to go over Michael burry's latest portfolio to discuss what he's been buying especially given that just a few weeks ago he had tweeted to sell is he just talking out of both sides of his mouth or as I think there's usually more to Michael burry than meets the eye if this let's dive into what did Michael burry buy what does his portfolio look like now what does this mean are there any lessons or insights potentially actionable thoughts that you can consider for your own investment journey et's understand well what Michael burry was buying and selling well when you look at what he was buying and selling there was a lot of turnover most of his Holdings he either sold out of completely or he reduced significantly now he did see rallies with significant with with most of these positions and then he proceeded to buy a bunch of new positions you know by Black Knight for example which is a merger Arbitrage play with ice stock or InterContinental they do Morgan servicing software and consumer loan software and there might be an opportunity there because the the deal price is around 85 versus the stock trading at 65 so if you have high conviction that the deal will go through that might be compelling coherent you know just went through a transformative acquisition multi-billion dollar acquisition they do something in lasers for a lot of different things like part partly making helping the lasers that are used to make battery packs and stuff like that so there's you know this is a levered industrial play he was buying two of the Chinese e-commerce companies Alibaba and JD personally in full disclosure I do own positions in both of those uh and when I look at them you know it it's interesting to see that he was buying during the fourth quarter it wouldn't surprise me if he was buying during the capitulation where things were just dropping you know around 20 in a day due to some of the news that was going on at the time Wolverine worldwide this is a levered you know shoe brand business where it's been selling off some of its Brands to paid down some of their debt MGM Resorts another interesting setup you know I this is you know effectively a company trading around its pre-coveted levels despite buying back something like 20 plus of their shares outstanding Sky West is a you know what could be a cheap you know small Airline provider and so you're looking at this and there's like a lot of different stocks he's buying and at the same time he's you know selling out of stuff that he was just buying in the last quarter so when you see this type of high turnover for one it means it's it's going to be hard for you to have some sort of actionable insight for you to say oh I'm gonna make this part of my portfolio I think what this is is sort of saying he found value in these things but he he often has higher turnover portfolio does that mean he's not a great investor not necessarily I think he's actually a very very good investor but what you can look at some of these names and I'm going to do a little bit of a deeper dive on some of them myself if I find something interesting I'll call it out to my subscribers at unrivaled investing I might look at Black Knight in in more detail and so you look at that and you say okay could this be part of my journey would I want to be interested in holding this for longer that type of thing like is there value here but recognize he's probably on a very different Journey than you and it's also a very different portfolio and that's that's why it's a really important point to understand is he's doing these things that are much much smaller bets as a percentage of his portfolio I mean you might think wow he's a nine million dollar bet to buy you know Black Knight or you know a couple million dollars on all these other things but the reality is this is a really small position this is not the next big long for Michael burry you know he he got the big short right he these are not the big long positions these are I think I think his largest holding like by when you add it all together it's around 50 million dollars I believe in in Holdings give or take this is in contrast to his personal net worth that's estimated to be around 300 million throw in a couple hundred million from having friends and family that you know want to invest with you so he's probably managing somewhere between 500 million and a billion dollars would be my guess maybe more and you know you look at this portfolio of 50 million dollars so either has a lot of stocks internationally or two he's still sitting out and sitting out I mean increasingly makes sense to me as I see a lot of things just rip higher and I'm thinking the valuations aren't that compelling and by the way the Federal Reserve keeps hiking rates and you're currently getting you know over four percent on your cash you know I personally keep my cash at interactive brokers link below you know for that four percent on their cash balances and so I look at this and I think he is eager to do a big long but he's not seeing it so he's doing all these little small things just to sort of you know deal with his you know ants in the pants type of thing like look at looking for something compelling like oh uh Chinese stocks sold off 20 in a day I guess you know they are kind of interesting I guess I'm gonna buy a little like that's that's what I think he's doing because at the end of the day you know buying let's say eight million dollars worth of Chinese stocks which is what he did um that's not really gonna change anything for him that's not a game changer that's I think some small you know these These are small bets for him this isn't going all in on a high conviction idea I think throughout this Market cycle you will I I expect to see a large bed and much more Capital allocated but I still think looking at Michael burry's portfolio that he's largely sitting out he's largely saying at least with U.S stocks he's largely saying I'm not finding these super compelling things that trade at the 10 to lower free cash flow multiples and he's he's a deep free deep you know value-free cash flow guy and so in in turn he's just making sort of these you know short-term trades that he can get in and out of and and for the record I mean if you look at what he's done you know his his performance with a lot of these things has worked out I mean a lot of them ripped higher 20 30 50 percent just this few months so I it's not like he's losing money I would suspect on these things I just think he's he's just sort of hands in the pants he's not making a big bet and he's saying you know it's kind of ridiculous what's going on with the market because you know the fed's still tightening he's he's over you know he's still bearish that's still the view uh and so I think cash is probably his largest position by far would be my guess based on based on this uh because the reality is he add up these Holdings and it's really not a lot unless there's some foreign stock that he owns just in size but I'm just not seeing that if you have a different view I'd love to hear it I mean I personally this isn't about worshiping an individual I don't worship him but for me it's always constantly looking for new ideas and you know for example you know over in the last year or so I saw that he bought McKesson and I had done work on those players years ago and so when I saw I said oh I should really refresh my notes and I said oh okay that's that's great and then I looked at I said holy smokes this has gotten really cheap and it was trading at like nine times three cash flow and so I bought it for myself and I so then I saw like the next quarter they sold and I said okay I I don't care that he sold like he put on he put it back on my radar that I should focus on it and it performed extremely well over the last couple years it's I think it's around a double in the last few years I did call it out to my subscribers at unravelinvesting.com at the time and I had made a sizeable percentage you know for myself so for me personally I look at this as you know just sort of scouting for new ideas where did he potentially find Value and does it align with my own values my own investment Journey for something I that I want to hold for longer term because that's my focus my focus is you know let's find these things for a multi-year perspective but he you know he's turning over rocks seeing things that you know fit him but clearly you know he's still not finding you know super deep value and sitting tight because uh I think he still has that bearish Outlook if you enjoyed this video please make one
Comments 0