저자: Daniel · 외국인
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결론: 현 시점은 불확실성이 커서 안전마진(margin of safety)을 중시해야 하며, 마이클 버리는 매도 신호, 레이 달리오는 현금이 주식·채권보다 매력적이라고 봄. 금리·연준: 파월 연준이 0.25%p 인상(4.5~4.75%)했고 추가 인상 여부는 불확실. 인플레이션, 특히 노동시장과 연결된 서비스 물가가 관건. 금융여건은 작년 대비 상당히 긴축적이라는 평가. 시장 반응: 버리의 매도 트윗 직후에도 위험자산이 급등하고 채권시장도 랠리했으나, 진행자는 연준이 우호적이지 않아 상승 추세가 지속되기 어렵다고 봄. 개인 투자자 거래량 급증, 재무 부실 종목까지 100% 이상 급등. 경제지표: 실업률 3.4%, 비농업고용 50만명 이상 증가 등 강한 고용. 반면 애플 아이폰 매출 9% 감소, 메타 매출 감소 가이던스(-7%) 등 대형 기술주 실적은 약세. 래리 서머스: 경제 예측이 역대급으로 어렵다고 언급, 제조업 선행지표 반등 등 엇갈린 신호. 투자 전략: 세 가지 안전마진 유형 제시 — (1) 청산가치 대비 할인 종목(예: 30% 할인), (2) 경기에 덜 민감한 안정적 잉여현금흐름 기업(금융 통행료형), (3) 고성장 고품질 기업이나 고평가 시 조정 위험 경고. 경기민감주(테슬라 등)는 주의 대상. 리스크: 연준 과도 긴축 시 실적 하락과 밸류에이션 축소가 동시에 올 수 있음. 고성장주도 성장률 둔화 시 큰 폭 하락 가능. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 현 환경을 위험선호(risk-on)에 우호적이지 않다고 보고 안전마진 확보를 강조. 구체적 종목 가격 목표 제시는 없음.
다듬은 글
if you're confused about the stock market or wondering how you should be investing right now I'm making this video for you if this your first time tuning in my name is Daniel you're watching unrivaled investing it is a very very confusing time you have one of the world's greatest investors Michael burry he tweeted at the start of this week's sell always the sunshine and rainbow sort and you have a lot of folks are saying oh you know it goes by Cassandra you know he yes he nailed the big short and yes he nailed the.com implosion um but yeah he's always this sort of Perma Bearer at least that's the perception he's actually called a lot of great stocks long and then the next day you get crazy volatility with major U.S indices as Jerome Powell raises interest rates by a quarter percent four and a half four and three quarters and this is because he goes look it's uncertain he talks about the uncertainty of how much further he's going to have to raise rates to tackle inflation because he really wants to make sure that inflation is crushed he wants to make sure we have price stability because if he doesn't do it now it's going to be even more painful over the next decade he sees price getting to price stability with housing and goods but he's not sure about Services which is in large part driven by a distortion in the labor market so if the labor Market's really hot it's very possible you have higher inflation for longer with services and so that gets Wall Street a little bit nervous but then he said you know someone asked well what do you think about financial conditions you know have they tightened have they eased up and he said ah you know it it really it it's it's super tight that effectively he was saying it's well it's tightened significantly over the past year and that is not what Wall Street was expecting because the reality is markets have gotten bid up significantly including the debt markets in the last few weeks and so Wall Street was like hey Ray this is great he thinks things are tight you know this means there's there's not a lot more going on this is great and so risk assets bid up significantly immediately after Michael Murray you know pretty much tweeted cells and then Michael Berry do we you know deletes his account he goes back on Twitter a few days later but a lot of people are dogging on him oh Michael Berry this guy worth a couple hundred million dollars you know what what's he know you know one of the greatest analysts ever uh what's he know because he clearly didn't get the short term right and then you get a lot of retail investors every day Mom and PAW investors they get reached effectively a record volume in terms of Market volume they're excited to get in on this and you see a lot of really I think there's the the I think the formal correct technical term is crappy stocks I think someone actually calls them uh hmm I I don't know if I want to use the proper the technical term here yet I think that I think the Techno if you have young children around cover the years I think they call them codes I think that's the technical uh term that we've heard so I apologize for the language and so you know you see some of these companies just rallying like crazy up like 100 year to date and some folks are saying well wait a second aren't these companies also reporting some terrible results but anyways you know a lot of the retail investors they don't care about the fundamentals they're just excited to the moon so then you get another very sober investor Ray dalio he's going look I previously said cash is trash stocks are even trash here now he's saying cash isn't trash it's certainly more attractive than stocks and bonds which is really interesting for him to say he's seeing the rally in stocks and bonds and he's saying you know what for the risk that you're taking it's just not worth it because you're still in this part of the market cycle where the FED is tightening eventually you you're sort of balancing these risks of hey if the FED really wants to make sure they get price stability there's a good chance they overshoot resulting in lower earnings in which case the risk that you're looking at from a stock and bond perspective probably you're not being compensated for relative to holding cash and cash is currently yielding you know a favorable rate I personally keep my cash at interactive brokers you know that's where I keep my investment accounts there's a link below currently cash is now yielding over four percent four point zero eight percent uh at interactive brokers which is one of the highest rates that I think you can get out there especially relative to a lot of the major Banks and so then you continue to see a weird investment environment you have folks like Ray dalio saying cash is you know that's actually what you want to hold relative to stocks and bonds you see Michael burry saying sell you see the stock market ripping higher for a few days is as Powell sort of says you know I'm not quite sure you know I'm uncertain but I think Financial conditions aren't you know are are tight even though stock prices and bond prices have rallied you know over the last few weeks and then you have a really strong jobs number where unemployment now reaches effectively a record low for several decades now 3.4 unemployment payrolls Rise by over half million these are just incredible figures where you go wow the economy is red hot when you see this and then you see just weird economic data as well you see that some of the major tech companies the Apple Amazon Google you know Facebook's of the world a lot of them my reporting I gotta say really mediocre results at best you know like flat or down and you know you're you're looking at Apple reporting a nine percent drop in iPhone sales partially attributable to weaker economic environment partially attributable to a strong US dollar but a weak economic environment is clearly part of the picture stock rips higher stock bricks higher because people just go hey you know to the Moon that you used you're starting to get this animal spirits again when you have a more sober investors saying well hold on a second like Ray dalio's Michael burries of the world saying you know what you're not thinking about the risk award here you do not have the Federal Reserve as your friend this is very different than past parts of the market cycle where Federal Reserve is saying hey we're cutting rates or we're printing you know unlimited money this is not where we are in the market cycle and it's very weird to see this to see apple jump you know a couple percent following what I'd argue is actually very weak earnings from them okay so what's all this mean you know how should you think about investing in this environment first of all quick plug unrivalinvesting.com is dedicated to helping everyday Savers become better investors subscribers receive investment insights compelling ideas and my personal real-time portfolio updates we also have an active community on our exclusive Discord server available only for our annual subscribers I personally let in every single member there I also recently launched two new investment courses for enterprising investors for the folks that want to learn how to read financial statements and also want to be able to size up as a stock that they own is that a promising or perilous valuation you know a lot of folks were burned by paying overpaying in the last few years so I thought it was important to have a valuation course at an affordable price and one quick comment is Larry Summers one of the greatest economists around formerly formerly treasury secretary under the Clinton Administration you know he is and he nailed it he nailed it folks he called out you know before the inflation started picking up he said this is gonna be a problem they should be raising rates you know he called it out he nailed full credit there and he's effectively saying like hey I think I thought there was gonna be a recession 2023 this is a really he's effectively said this is one of the hardest economies to forecast that he's ever seen now part of it's because you know how how much data points do you have how many data points do you have about you know pandemic post cycles where you have tremendous Treasury and monetary stimulus and so he's saying look it's it's really unclear you're still looking incredibly favorable numbers and you see like last at the end at the end of the year you saw manufacturing and production industrial production leading indicators start falling and now in the last week you've seen it all of a sudden expand back into expansionary you know so it goes from contraction to expansion so he he himself is saying look I'm not sure and when you see an economist Like Larry Summers who in my opinion is one of the best say you know what I'm just not sure you see Jerome Powell say I'm not sure and you see you know in very intelligent investors like Michael burry radar you might you might not like Michael bird a lot of folks don't like him I personally do a lot of folks don't like him because he has this constant sort of perm he's he's often negative but I I think his analysis is very very good I think it's important to recognize a lot of these folks are either saying it's really uncertain right now or the risk reward isn't that compelling so this should make you think in my opinion that you're dealing with greater uncertainty that greater uncertainty means not only like hey there's a downside but it's a wider range of possibilities it's possible you have a hotter economy for longer but it's also possible that the Federal Reserve overshoots because look Powell has made it very clear he's gonna do what it takes to get the job done uh you know he's even called out the the the autobiography of Paul volcker the prior Fed chair who is effectively saying like keeping at it he's saying yeah I'm Gonna Keep at it until the job gets done I'm going to make sure there's price stability he's gonna keep raising rates and so there is all these you know data points I don't view this as a very favorable risk-on environment despite the fact that we have had a significant rally you know 10 plus in the last few weeks I given this sort of backdrop I don't think that you you have this sort of tailwind and so I think that's very important to understand you know I don't look at Apple I don't look at Google I don't look at Amazon all of which you know I I I when I say I don't look them I'm saying I don't see them saying there's favorable economic data that's that's none of them are saying oh yeah the economy is just great all of them are saying yeah it's it's tough times you know like all of them are saying yeah we need to do layoffs because things aren't growing as much as we expected or there's challenges same same thing with meta I mean meta ripped hard despite the fact they're talking about declining Revenue you know their guidance included a negative seven percent outlook for the quarter ahead that was the downside the upside was two percent growth so you're looking at these things like none of these guys are looking none of these companies I should say excuse me none of these companies are talking about oh yeah super robust economy despite the fact that the unemployment picture looks great so this is incredibly the uncertainty and the potential range of outcomes I'd say is really wide here and some of the best economists don't know how it's going to play out and some of the best investors are saying look given these Dynamics I it's better to be safe than sorry so how do how can you apply that to yourself as an investor well there's a concept that you know Warren Buffett has taken to heart he learned it from Ben Graham and then countless other value investors like Seth clarman have applied it over and over again you see it you know the name over my shoulder which is that it's important to find a margin of safety you know Ben Graham talked about you know you don't drive over you know a bridge that can support let's say you know a million pounds or something like that with a with a with a truck that has a million pounds worth of stuff you need to make sure there's a margin of safety uh so that way the bridge doesn't collapse you should look for things that are obvious you should look for differentials where you say oh this is you know like I the there's there's so much safety either in the quality of the business or in the valuation that I'm comfortable buying and holding in this environment so when you see Michael burry saying sell you should be able to say well these are the reasons why I'm not going to sell and have very strong reasons and if you can't then I would say you should check yourself check yourself before you wreck yourself because when you think about margin safety I think there's three different you know types of margin of safety that you can think about feel free to add comments below if you you think there's more but I think the first one is sort of a deep value margin of safety where it's based on some sort of liquidation value where you're saying hey this company trades with a liquidation value and therefore you know it might be a portfolio of asset might be a portfolio of companies you know this this business owns a portfolio of companies and some of these companies are publicly traded you know if you have something like that and it trades let's say a 30 discount to that that can be kind of compelling if you find some sort of liquidation play like that because then you're saying well even if Michael burry's right you know there's there's this huge margin of safety you know a significant upside just to getting to some sort of liquidation value so that's the first thought another thought in terms of getting that margin of safety is if you have a business with just tremendously you know stay stable free cash flow no matter what the economic picture is I'm not talking about the Teslas of the world the Teslas of the world are more cyclical I suspect when a consumer you know is is pulling back you know that's going to impact their free cash flows I'm talking about the businesses that are like Financial toll booths on the economy where no matter what they're collecting sort of cash free cash flow coming in businesses that are incredibly stable and you can always check it against let's say the great financial crisis or the.com implosion to see how did these business type of do and are you paying a good multiple to that free cash flow so that's the second type of margin of safety is like hey I'm getting a great free cash flow yield so even if the stock fell off this you know the stock price Falls there's going to be some sort of buyback or something like that so that's that's stable free cash flow that's what I like to see the third in terms of margin of safety is when you find something that's just so compelling it's such a high quality business it's a disrupter it has hyper growth we're saying hey the thesis here with this business is that even if there's a recession because they have this product that's so good and so disruptive and they're selling these new services that I can still pencil out hyper growth 20 30 40 growth I that's the reason why I'm going to own it that is in my opinion those are the rarest and best stocks to find I you know it's it's very very hard to find those types of things but that's ideally something you want to own ideally that's what you sort of concentrate your portfolio around because that drives most of the value over a multi-decade period that that sort of strong growth The Challenge and a lot of folks have woken up to it in the last few years is that it's very easy to overpay for these things and in periods where investors sort of wake up and say Hey you know growth might come in a little bit lower than you expect then in that case the valuations really come under pressure and that's the challenge is like hey even if you have a hyper Growth Company it goes from 30 growth to 20 percent growth really strong growth otherwise you know you might have a even greater drop in valuation so that's why in this environment it's so important to be aware of in my opinion the valuation in which you're paying for all these types of things I personally try to have you know one of each of these at least in my own personal portfolio I call them out to my subscribers at unravelinvesting.com you know the the type of company trading below liquidation value they could try to type a company with like 80 plus recurring Revenue trading and a great multiple free cash flow and then the hyper growth businesses where it's like hey you know it's it will be more volatile but I think the thesis is here for strong 20 30 percent and annual growth in the years ahead so it's important to have a diversified portfolio at least you know that's how I personally look at is each of these different buckets um but every investor has their own journey I just think in this environment you want to be really mindful is what is that margin of safety because you want to make sure that you know if if you don't have that margin of safety in this environment just check yourself you don't want to end up in a world of pain where you're saying oh man I actually ended up paying up for this cyclical business and I get hurt two ways I get hurt both let's say the potentially you know economic downturn as well as lower valuation that could be really painful but we'll see that's just one of the possibilities it's a wider range of possibilities right now because even some of the greatest economists in the world they're not quite sure how it's going to play out and that's why it's so important in my opinion to have that margin of safety if this video has been helpful for you
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