저자: 누리엘루비니 · 외국인
요약 보기
루비니는 은행 위기가 아직 끝나지 않았고 신용 경색이 올해 미국 경기침체를 촉발할 것이라고 주장한다. 은행 위기: 지역은행의 예금 기반이 좁고 비보험 예금이 많으며, 증권 평가손과 상업용 부동산 익스포저로 인해 금리 기준 일부는 사실상 지급불능 상태라고 진단. 가장 심한 은행 스트레스는 아직 남아 있다고 봄. 경기 전망: 신용 경색이 중소기업·가계·상업용/주거용 부동산 대출을 위축시켜 올해 미국이 경기침체에 들어갈 것. 반면 제이미 다이먼의 서한은 2008년과 달리 금융 위기 규모가 제한적이라 본다고 소개되며 이에 대해 루비니는 인플레이션이라는 차이를 지적. 통화정책 딜레마: 연준은 물가안정·성장·금융안정이라는 3중 딜레마에 빠져 있음. 근원 인플레이션이 여전히 높아(5.6% 언급) 금리를 더 올리면 경기침체와 부실이 커지고, 멈추면 인플레 기대 이탈과 임금-물가 악순환 위험. 가계: 하위 50% 가계는 월급에 의존하며 유동성이 매우 적고, 실질임금 하락과 대출 이자 부담 증가로 취약성이 쌓이고 있음. 스태그플레이션 우려: 공급 충격과 정부·민간 부채 비율(미국 공공부채 GDP 대비 약 120%, 일부 언급은 420%로 자막 오인식 가능성) 때문에 1970년대식 스태그플레이션과 금융불안이 겹칠 위험을 경고. 지정학: 우크라이나 전쟁, 이스라엘-이란 충돌 가능성(유가 급등 우려), 미중 경쟁에 따른 경제 블록화(디글로벌라이제이션, 프렌드쇼어링)가 성장과 생산비용을 높인다고 봄. 달러 체제: 단극 체제에서 양극 체제로 이행 중이며, 중국이 위안화 결제(특히 석유)와 준비통화화를 추진. 이는 미국 쌍둥이 적자 재원 조달과 민간·공공 부채 금융비용을 높일 수 있다고 경고. 투자자에게 복잡한 역학을 인지할 것을 권고하며 마무리.
다듬은 글
right we're turning now to our top story cooling inflation raising hopes the third could hold or even bring down rates that optimism shared by Gary Cohn former NEC director who says the worst of the trouble with the banks may already be behind us take a listen we're more acutely aware of what's going now and now because we've seen larger Banks much larger Banks run into financial trouble and we've seen larger Banks go out of business um I don't think we have seen the end of this banking situation I won't call it a crisis because I don't feel like we're in a crisis our next guest however says increased spending the Fallout from recent bank collapses and yes still high inflation are creating storm clouds on the horizon joining us now nuriel rabini Stern School of Business New York University professor emeritus thank you for joining me this morning so I first want to get your reaction to where we are in this banking crisis and the repercussions I think there was this still ahead of us the business model of many Regional Banks is broken they have a narrow deposit base they have a large amount of uninsured deposits that massive losses on their Securities even the value of their loans is falling they've exposure to commercial real estate and many of them if you measure it correctly given the changes the interest rates are now insolvent if they have to raise money not that 50 business funds on the deposits because people can get four or five percent on Safe Money Market T bills then you have a problem in terms of cost of funding and value of their assets so I think that the worst in terms of severe banking stress is still ahead of us and of course this credit crimes is going to reduce significantly economic growth they land to smes the land of households the lento commercial and residential real estate that credit crunch is going to take the the U.S economy into a recession later this year I mean we still don't know exactly how long these rooms will last but some not quite as pessimistic in Jamie Diamond shareholder letter he noted that there would still be repercussions from the banking crisis for years to come it does raise recession risks but he said nothing like what we saw in 2008 because it involved far fewer Financial players and fewer issues that need to be resolved is there something missing there from this picture well compared to 2008 now we have inflation at that time we didn't have inflation we've had a number of negative aggregate Splash shocks that reduce economic growth and increase the cost of production so at that time where the demand shock a credit crunch deflation you could do massive monetary fiscal and credit using now entering economic contraction when inflation is too high and the fat is to keep on hiking even before these banking stresses the Fed was facing a dilemma because either you raise rates to fight inflation and you cause a recession or if you care about job growth and you don't raise rates enough then you have a danker expectation now that dilemma has become a trilemma in addition to price stability maintaining growth we also need financial stability and as you raise the rates you create more stresses for both creditors and for borrowers and therefore you have only one policy instrument in this case the FED funds rate to eat three Target price stability growth and financial stability to me that looks like Mission Impossible and you mentioned this trilemma there so you have the looming insolvency crisis recession risks inflation as well but you also do have a much stronger consumer now than you did in 2008 but you say that a doom Loop is coming is it not avoidable then well in among the households there are those who are doing better off but the bottom 50 of the household sector leads from paycheck to paycheck the average household is only a few hundred dollars of liquid cash spared that savings during covid but they spent a lot of it real wages have been falling because wages were growing uh less than inflation and if there's some meaningful amount of financial fragility anybody who has a consumer loan a credit card an auto loan student loan or mortgage of the viable rate now is facing my child debt servicing costs so we're starting to see the build up of fragilities for at least half of the household sector as well so what can central banks do at this point I mean we saw the IMF raising risks as well about even the vulnerabilities of non-bank financial institutions as well and talking about how much their the Global Financial stability hinges on that as well what can central banks do well right now they're in a trap because either they raise rates even more and even today's inflation report suggests that core inflation is still at 5.6 well above two if you raise more in order to fight inflation you cause an economic downturn this is going to lead to more non-performing loans and more financial stresses and more financial stresses in financial markets Banks and on banks going to imply a more severe economic downturn so economic and financial crash or if you care about growth and about maintaining Financial stability you stop raising rates when inflation is still too high and then over time you get a de-anchoring of inflation and inflation expectation and you get the wage price spiral and then you end up like the 70s with inflation of remaining High eventually recession but you know in the 70s we had stagflationary shock but that ratio were low 100 of GDP rather than public today there are 420 percent of GDP after after the GFC whether that problem household housing mortgages Banks but where the negative demand shock that was deflationary today we have the worst of the sovereignties in terms of negative Supply shocks and that ratio that are significantly higher than they were even during the global financial crisis that's why I do worry it's going to be a great stagflationary debt and financial instability where the worst of the 70s and the worst of the positive C periods and some of these other Mega threats that you mentioned what we're seeing in terms of countries engaged in what you call various Wars some real some metaphorical and talk about the Domino effects on that and what that might mean for investors well we are in a geopolitical depression there is already a hot war with a brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine this spring is always going to get worse potentially further shocking commodity markets I was recently in Israel where it's clear that Iran has become a trash of the press state if Israel were to attack Iran you'll have a spike in all prices worse than 73 or 79 and I just visited China when unfortunately the cold war between us and China is getting colder by the day and this geopolitical is leading to a fragmentation of the global economy decoupling protection is deglobalization balkanization or Global Supply Chain we've gone from free trade to security trade from offshoring to friend Shoring from just in time Global Supply chains to just in case and from caring about economic efficiency to talk about economic and geopolitical security these things are costly they reduce Global growth they increase cost of production and there are forces that among others are speculationary for the real economy and I mean we're seeing countries having to take sides as as both China and the us trying to push forward with technological advancements but obviously the US dollar is still the predominant Global Currency a reserve currency but as people do sort of take sides in this Dynamic what lies ahead then for the dollar and the multinational companies that are essentially Stuck in the Middle here well wait until now a unipolar global Reserve currency where the dollar was dominant but it's clear that China and its allies revisionist powers are like Russia like North Korea Iran Pakistan and others want to build an alternative Global monetary and Reserve currency system because they worry that the kind of sanction we imposed on Russia if there was a conflict or escalation over say Taiwan could be imposed on China and China is a over a trillion dollar of reserves that are in dollar so they need to have a unit of account a means of payment a store value that is alternative US dollar and they're gonna start to build it and already talking not only to their own allies but also other friends they do business like those in the Persian Gulf about pricing oil in RMB paying it in RMB and building reserves in RMB that's going to take time but I think that gradually over time when I have a process of a movement of a unipolar global Reserve current system to a bipolar where you're going to have U.S Europe the West base still on the dollar but then the Chinese is going to build the RMB as an alternative U.S dollar that means less financing of our own twin fiscal and current account that visits when we still have very large stocks of private and public debt that can push higher the cost of financing for the United States when we have very high private and public debt ratios so a lot of Dynamics and nuances at play in this relationship investors should be aware of Muriel rabini that's Stern School of Business New York University professor emeritus thank you for joining us on Yahoo finance today great being with you today
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