저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 개인 투자자는 단기 성과에 흔들려 고점 매수·저점 매도를 반복하므로, 장기 보유가 핵심이다. 기관화 확대로 개인에게 유리한 기회가 생겼다. 과거 20~30년간 정보 접근성과 연산력이 늘고 헤지펀드·뮤추얼펀드가 급증했음에도, 단순 가치 팩터의 초과수익은 오히려 강해졌다. 기관 투자자의 단기 평가 문화가 문제다. 1980년대 말 펀드오브펀드가 월간 수익률 보고를 요구했고, 한 달 1.1% 수익이 평균 1.2%에 못 미쳤다는 이유로 성과 부진 추궁을 받았다. 단기 평가 때문에 장기 성과 관리가 어렵다. 4~5년이 성과를 판단할 합리적 기간이며, 잦은 매매(과잉 행동)는 더 나은 수익을 보장하지 않는다는 연구가 있다. 성과 추종 자금 흐름이 수익을 갉아먹는다. 상위 25% 운용사 중 97%가 최근 10년 내 최소 3년은 하위 50%에 머물렀고, 79%는 하위 25%에 있었다. 대다수 투자자는 이를 견디지 못하고 이탈한다. 2000년대 최고 뮤추얼펀드는 연 18% 수익을 냈지만, 투자자 평균은 연 -11%를 기록했다. 하락장에 이탈하고 상승 후 유입하는 행동 때문이다. 언급 종목·자산과 가격 방향 예측은 없다. 조건·리스크: 장기 보유 원칙과 행동 통제가 전제이며, 2021년 영상의 일반론이다. 출연자 전망: 장기 가치 투자 관점에서 개인에게 기회가 있다는 낙관적 입장이다.
다듬은 글
before we get to that you make the point the reason why there is such opportunity for the individual is that in the investor world you believe it's become more short-term focused which means buy high sell low that's a really great point uh big picture is that uh when you when you look back at what's happened over the last 20 30 years there's been more access to information there's been more computing power there's been more people going onto wall street you know high paid hedge funds and you know proliferation of mutual funds and and everything else so there's a lot of smart people actually trying to beat the market quote-unquote and so you would think that it would be getting tougher and tougher for individual investors to to outperform the market and what it turns out is our simple value factors have actually gotten stronger over the last 20 30 years and the reason for that is that the the world has become much more institutionalized meaning i'll just tell a quick story i tell in the book which was that in the late 80s i had an investor in my partnership one of the first funder funds and these are funds that actually pick managers and you're asking them to find their expertise to pick the best managers and they put that all together in a fund and so one of the first that was put together in the late 80s or at least the ones i knew about uh asked to invest in our partnership and at the time i was writing quarterly letters and that seemed to be fine for my investors uh but the funda fund said well we have to report more often so could you give us monthly returns so i said sure i'll tell you the monthly returns as as they come in and uh sure enough after the first month that this fund had uh money with us we reported back that we were up 1.1 percent which we thought was pretty good but i got a call from the fund of funds and said well you know we have a lot of other managers that do similar things to you and the average one of those was up one point two percent last month to what do you attribute your underperformance and uh i politely told uh the fund of funds to call me back in a year i probably should have told them to call me back in four or five years but i don't think they would have stuck around uh so long so i figured i'd settle for one year but the world has become much more institutionalized since then uh people look at daily returns weekly returns monthly returns they get analysis over the month or the quarter it's very hard to keep a long-term horizon when you're investing in the stock market you know four or five years is more a more reasonable time frame to judge anyone's uh performance and you get hyper activity which research shows does not lead to better returns exactly so what happens really is is that uh you know if you underperformed in the last six months year or two years uh people chase performance so they take money out of you and and put it to someone else and another statistic i wrote in the book which i think is the most telling is if you look at the top performers over the last decade the top 25 percent of managers that have uh uh outperformed came up with the best record for the last 10 years uh 97 okay 97 of those top managers uh spent at least three years in the bottom half of performance 79 percent spent at least three years in the bottom quartile of performance and uh almost half 47 spent at least three years in the bottom 10 of performance so you know all their investors left if they did that but these are the ones who ended up with the best long-term record most people leave them most people don't stick around uh for long enough uh one other thing i write up was the top uh in the decade of the 2000s you know that 10-year period the top performing mutual fund was up 18 a year uh the average investor in that fund lost 11 a year that was the best one uh why is that it's because every time the fund uh underperformed people left every time the market went down people left every time it outperformed people piled in right after the out performance right after the market went up people piled in so with all the investors market decision the average investor the average dollar rated investor in that fund over the last decade the best fund ended up losing 11 a year you
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