Bill Ackman: How To Make HUGE Profits From Inflation?

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결론: 애크먼은 인플레이션이 일시적이 아니라 구조적이며 금리 인상이 불가피하다고 본다. 인플레이션 성격: 임금·원자재(구리, 목재, 에너지)·주택가격·비트코인 등 거의 모든 가격이 오르고 있으며, 한번 오른 임금은 되돌리기 어려워 새로운 기준선이 형성됐다고 주장. 원인: 팬데믹 이후 억눌렸던 소비 심리, 백신 접종 확대에 따른 경제 재개, 트럼프·바이든 재정부양책과 인프라 투자, 지나치게 완화적인 연준이 짧은 기간에 집중된 결과. 연준 평가: 연준이 정책을 바꾼 시점이 잘못됐으며, 인플레이션에 대해 선제적으로 대응했어야 했다고 비판. 경기 과열 위험 때문에 금리가 오를 가능성이 크다고 전망. 투자 전략: 가격 결정력(pricing power)이 있어 투입 비용 상승(노동·목재 등)을 제품 가격에 전가할 수 있는 기업을 보유하라는 조언. 금리 상승 리스크: 이익이 없고 먼 미래 현금흐름에 가치가 집중된 고평가 기술주가 할인율 변화에 가장 민감하며, 금리 상승 시 가장 큰 위험이라고 설명. 언급 종목·자산: 명시적 종목 추천 없음. 비트코인은 가격이 상승하는 자산의 예시로만 언급. 고평가 성장 기술주는 금리 상승 시 위험 자산으로 지목. 출연자 전망 요약: 단기적으로 금리 상승 및 인플레이션 지속을 강하게 전망, 고밸류 성장주에 대해 부정적, 가격 결정력 있는 기업 선호.

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01. oh i mean inflation is the topic of the day this morning with with big numbers surprisingly high numbers out even one expectation for a high number can we go to this question for a video question from one of our viewers here harry kane well hi my name is harry kane and my question is as we're getting into an error full of the inflation risk so what's your suggestion for us to improve our portfolio to deal with this inflation risk thank you so much sure so i do agree i think there's going to be inflation i mean you don't say there's going to be there is inflation it's happening this way is that a debate between like business people who are experiencing rising prices and addressing it versus economists who are saying oh this is just temporary blips coming out of the pandemic i mean where where do you come down on that yeah i think it's not temporary uh first of all it's hard to roll back wages once you roll them up i mean they go from 15 to 12.

02. you know it's it so i would say we have a new baseline in terms of wages sort of generally uh you look at every commodity price right new hot copper lumber you know make your list look at what's going on in energy even before the colonial uh you know pipeline issue um look at housing prices look at bitcoin right everything is inflating um and that's driven by we have kind of a once in a moment in history uh right you have people emerging from a pandemic with the animal spirits that come from being locked by beings right so that's dramatic you have you have uh all that hit you know the vaccine roll out actually in the us certainly it's been you know fantastic so you have a lot of people feeling you know being fully vaccinated going back to their lives and then you have the trump stimulus the biden stimulus infrastructure an extremely accommodative you know federal reserve and everything concentrated in a couple of quarters so that the federal reserve too accommodated do you think i think they're gonna have to raise rates for sure and i think you know they adjusted their policy in my view just at the wrong time you know the a preemptive policy toward inflation uh i think is a better approach particularly in a world where we have uh you know massive massive uh stimulus economic stimulus is it too much stimulus i mean the cigar is i think with rates where they are it will have there's a very good risk of the economy overheating that's why i think rates go up and really the answer to the question the uh your viewer asked is you want to own businesses that have pricing power and you want to own businesses where the value of the business is not going to change dramatically if rates go up and so you know the risk to markets is you know what's interesting is you if you build a discounted cash flow you know analysis of a company and the business generates no profits for a decade and then you know grows very rapidly thereafter you know huge percentage of value the business is in if you will the the residual value of the company you know in your little dcf calculation small changes in the discount rate you use have a very big effect on the value of that kind of a company and so that's where the kind of high-flying you know highly valued technology companies that are not generating much in the way of earnings today uh you know those are i would say the biggest risk with respect to rate or rates rising uh and you want to own businesses that can uh you know raise prices to make up for their incremental input costs whether that's labor or lumber