저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상은 종목·가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측을 담고 있지 않으며, 장기적으로 미국 자본주의와 지수 투자의 우위를 강조한 교육용 강연이다. [시장 구조와 미국 기업의 우위] 2021년 3월 31일 기준 세계 시가총액 상위 20개 기업 중 상위 6개 중 5개가 미국 기업이라고 언급. 1790년 미국은 세계 인구의 약 0.5%였으나 현재 상위 기업 집중도가 높다는 점을 강조. [과거 상위 기업 교체 사례] 1989년 상위 20개 기업 목록에는 현재 상위 20개 기업이 하나도 없음. 1989년 1위 기업 시가총액은 약 1,040억 달러, 20위는 약 340억 달러였으나 30여 년 뒤 1위는 약 2조 달러 수준으로 성장. 일본 기업이 1989년에는 다수 포함되었으나 현재는 없음. [산업 선택의 어려움] 자동차 산업 초기 약 2,000개 회사가 진입했으나 2009년 무렵 3개만 남음. 유망 산업을 맞혀도 승자 기업을 고르기는 어렵다고 설명. [투자 전략 조언] 유망 산업에 대한 확신보다 다각화된 주식(지수 펀드 등) 장기 보유가 유리하다고 주장. 잦은 매매와 산업 유행에 따른 투자에 경계 필요. [출연자 전망] 영상 내 구체적 종목·지수 가격 방향에 대한 1~3개월 예측 발언은 없음. 30년 장기 관점의 일반론만 제시. [리스크 언급] 인기 산업이라도 기업 선택은 실패 가능성이 크며, 과도한 자신감을 경계해야 한다고 강조.
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i would like to uh just go over two items that i would like particularly new entrants to the stock market to uh ponder just a bit before they try and do 30 or 40 trades a day uh in order to profit what from what looks like in a very uh easy game so uh i would like to uh go to slide l1 so put that up and uh these i on march 31st i ran off a list of the 20 largest companies in the world by stock market value and those names good many of which will be familiar to but they were led by apple at slightly over 2 trillion and it went down to the number 20th was worth 330 odd billion but those are the 20 largest companies in the world by market value on march 31st now if i had a little i was hoping i could get a little uh quiz machine so i could have everybody weigh in on this answer and we could flash up a little later but but proved technically impossible for but what i would like you to do is look at that list starts off with apple saudi aramco is a pretty kind of a specialized country as a company it's i don't know whether it's 95 owned by the government or what but but it's it's essentially a country that's for sale or in terms of that business but the the top of the top six companies five of them are american so when you hear people say that america hasn't done it's got all it's not working very well or something of the sort you know in the whole world uh of the six top companies in value five of them in the united states and if you think about it you know we talked a little about this last year but in 1790 we had one half of one percent of the world's population and a little less we had four million people 3.9 million people 600 000 of them were slaves ireland had more people than the united states had russia had five times as many people as the u.s ukraine had twice as many people as the united states uh so here we were but what did we have we had a map for the future an aspirational map that uh somehow now only 200 and well after the constitution 232 years uh later uh leaves us uh with five of the top six companies in the world you know it's not an accident and it's not because we were way smarter uh way stronger you know anything was short we had good soil a decent climate but so some of those other countries i named and the system has worked unbelievably well just imagine thinking of five of the top six companies in the world ending up with a country that started with a half of one percent of the population uh just a few hundred years ago but what i would like you to do is look at that list for a minute or two if you want to and and then make an estimate make your own guess how many of those companies are going to be on the list 30 years from now here they are these power houses and how many would you guys are gonna be on the list well you know it's not gonna be all 20.
it may not even be all 20 today or tomorrow uh this was march 31st uh but what would you guess and think about that yourself would you put on five eight well whatever it would be i would now invite you to look at slide two or l2 which goes back a little more than 30 years and look at the top 20 from 1989 and if you look at the top 20 from 1989 there's two things that we should grab your interest at least two none of the 20 from 30 years ago or on the present list none zero there were then six u.s companies on the list and their names are familiar to you but uh they have uh general electric we have exxon ibm corp and these are they're still around merck is down there at number none made it to the list 30 years later zero and i would guess that very few of you when i asked you to play the quiz a little a few minutes ago would have put down zero and i don't think it will be zero but it is a reminder of what extraordinary things uh can happen things that seem obvious to you uh japan had this wonderful bull market for a very long time so he had a number of japanese companies on the list uh today there there are none uh and uh the united states had the six now we have 13.
uh but they aren't the same six uh i would invite you to think about one other thing as you look at this list 1989 was not the dark ages i mean we weren't just discovering capitalism or anything else and people thought they knew a lot about the stock market and the efficient market theory was in and they were it was not a it was not a backward time and if you look the top company at that time had a market value of 100 billion 104 billion so the largest company in the world uh title in just shade over 30 years has gone from 100 billion to 2 trillion at the bottom the number 20 has gone from 34 billion to something a little over 10 times that well that tells you something about what's happened with equality which is a hot subject in in this country it tells you a little bit about inflation but this was not a highly inflationary period as a whole but it tells you that that capitalism has worked incredibly well especially for the capitalists and uh uh it's an it's a pretty astounding number do you think you think it could be repeated now that that 30 years from now that you could take two trillion for apple multiply any company and come up with 30 times that for the leader you know it seems impossible and maybe it is impossible but i just we were just as sure of ourselves as investors and wall street was in 1989 as we are today but the world can change in very very uh dramatic ways and i'll just give you one other example you might ponder this is when you start feeling too sure of yourself one thing it shows incidentally is that that uh it's a great argument for for index funds is that uh you know it the main thing to do was to be aboard the ship you know a ship you know they were all going to a better promised land used to know which one was the one they'd necessarily get on but but you couldn't help but do well if you just had a diversified group of equities uh your eos equities would be my preference but uh to hold over a 30-year period but if you thought you knew a lot about which ones to pick or the person that you had hiring you were paying a lot of money to had all these ideas and uh uh they could tell you their best ideas and 1989 did not necessarily do that well although overall equities were absolutely the place to be secondly people get enormously attracted to various industries i mean they think if you they think if you know if a company says it's in the xyz industry and that's a popular one you can you can sell ipos you can you can sell specs you can people disregard sales numbers earnings numbers that just you know it's the place to be so um berkshire hathaway where was the place to be in 1903 when my uh my dad was born in 1903 but that wasn't really that big of news but but it wasn't big news that actually henry ford was starting the ford motor company failed a couple of times before but he was about to change the world i mean the the auto when you think about everything we've got a great auto insurance company but if there weren't any autos we wouldn't have geico uh the but it transformed the country uh and then report brought in the five dollar daily wage and that was a huge thing assembly lines and everything autos came along so let's just assume that you had seen a quick glance back in 1903 of all the interstate highways 290 million vehicles on the road in the united states uh you know everything about it and say well this is pretty easy it's going to be cars it's going to be autos well uh berkshire uh uh let's see what we've got up there yeah no say where you were go back i don't want to change slides yet the uh go back to the elves uh the berkshire by accident well we own a company called marmon we bought it from the pritzker family some years ago pritzkers uh had built this business from many many many companies that they'd acquired and the name of their company was marmon and uh i don't know exactly why jay and bob decided to name it marmon but but they did own a company called marmon and uh the marmon uh company is uh getting slightly out of me on the slides again but that's okay uh uh the uh we called it uh it was they owned this company marmon which in 1911 had been a uh uh the company whose car won the first indianapolis 500 uh and maybe that's why they called it martin they were proud of the fact that the company in 1911 named the ferdinand won the first indianapolis 500 it also was the company that invented the rear view mirror i'm not sure whether that was a big contribution to society and certainly around your household you don't want to emphasize too much but but they uh the car that was entered in the annapolis 500 the the guy who normally sat next to the driver and looked backwards to tell what what the competitors were doing he was sick so they they invented the rear view mirror so uh let's just assume that you decided that all those were this incredible thing and someday there'd be an indianapolis 500 and somebody have a review of mirrors on cars and someday 290 million cars would be buzzing around the united states car or autos or the penalty trucks there and so i decided to look at the history and i thought i'd put up the list of auto companies from over the years and uh i was originally going to put up just the ones that were the m so i could get them on one slide but when i went to the m's it went on and on and on so i just decided to put up the ones that started with m a and as you can see there were almost 40 companies that went into the auto business just starting with m.a including our little our marmin there in the middle column and uh which uh uh lasted for a while quite a while but uh it was selling cars in the 1930s were really quite special uh but in any event there were at least 2 000 companies that entered the auto business because it clearly had this incredible future and of course you remember that in 2000 uh nine there were three left two of which went bankrupt so there is a lot more to picking stocks than what figuring out you know what's going to be a wonderful industry in the future uh uh the maytag company put out a car all stay put on a car do not put out a car i mean nebraska was a nebraska motorcycle everybody started car companies just like everybody's starting something now that can be where you can get money from people but there were very very very few people that picked the winner or guess they got the opportunity for at ford motor and before it had a few partners and he really didn't like him so he figured a way to buy them out that was uh sort of the uh that was one it was sort of the beginning of the uh the auto finance so that's a long story we won't get into that but uh but but you could you couldn't buy in the ford motor and of course general motors uh became the the dominant company uh uh finally when henry ford did not really make the shift from the model t to the model a very it did not work very well so i just want to tell you it's not as easy as it sounds you
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