저자: JoelGreenblatt · 외국인
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결론: 가치투자가 죽었는지는 모르겠고, 그 질문 자체보다 기업 가치평가에 집중하는 것이 본질이라는 주장. 통계: 러셀 데이터 기준 1980~2006년 가치투자는 시장을 연 약 2%p 상회했으나, 최근 12년은 성장주가 연 약 5%p 상회. 최근 9개월: 러셀 퓨어 밸류 지수 +1.7%, 퓨어 그로스 지수 +28.6%로 성장주 초과수익이 지속. 모멘텀과 저PBR·저PSR 같은 팩터는 과거에 잘 작동했던 상관관계일 뿐이며, 앞으로 작동할지는 모르겠다고 언급. 모멘텀 부진 원인으로 경기순환적 비선호인지, 아니면 거래 과밀로 수익이 훼손된 것인지는 2년 뒤에도 알기 어렵다고 봄. 저PBR 투자는 시장이 기업 자산가치 대비 낮게 평가한 회사를 사는 것이어서 장기적으로 효과가 있었다고 판단하나, 최근에도 지속될지는 확신하지 않음. 핵심 입장: 주식은 종이 쪼가리가 아니라 사업의 지분이며, 가치평가를 잘하면 단기적으로 보상받지 못해도 장기적으로 시장이 따라온다고 봄. 사모펀드 투자자처럼 사업 전체를 사는 관점을 유지해야 한다고 강조. 워런 버핏의 말을 인용해 가치와 성장은 분리되지 않고 함께 묶여 있다고 설명. 따라서 가치 vs 성장 통계 논쟁은 자신에게 의미가 크지 않다고 결론. 특정 종목·자산에 대한 가격 방향 예측이나 매매 권유는 없음.
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uh whether value investing is dead or not is another question and the answer that you expect me to say is no and i'm gonna say that i'm also going to say it might be i'm also going to say i don't know and i'm finally going to say i don't care so i think i cover everything uh as far as value is concerned uh according to russell data uh value investing did quite well for a long period of time 1980 to 2006 that outperformed the market by about two percent a year since then last 12 years growth has outperformed the market by about five percent a year hence the question sort of you know or at least the worry that value investing is dead and if you look at the first nine months of this year uh russell has an index called uh pure value which really takes the 400 stocks in the russell 1000 that are closest to value that was up 1.7 for the first nine months uh the russell pure growth that was up 28.6 so underperforming once again continuing and why some value investors at least that it's corrected a little bit since then but still that dichotomy has been going a long time and they just put a little another nudge into the valiant uh vesting uh world during the first nine months why so it looks like value investing might be dead on the other hand uh what is value investing russell defines it amongst other things and morningstar would define it as low price book low price sales investing uh to us and and the answer is if you're talking about will low price book low price sales investing come back the answer is i don't know okay uh i usually use the i uh the concept of momentum these are things that have worked in the past another thing that's worked well in the past is something like momentum and it's very clear a lot of research studies that momentum's worked very well for the last 30 40 years and not just in this country but across the globe with one or two exceptions momentum's worked really well my problem with it is that if it did not work for the next two years it could be that momentum is just cyclically out of favor and all we have to do is be patient and it works over the long term it's cyclical and it didn't work for the next two years but that's fine stick to it it works over the long term plenty plenty of evidence that that has been so but the other choice if it doesn't work for the next two years is that there is more data ability to crunch numbers computers smart people not so hard to figure out a stock used to be down here and now it's up here it's got good momentum and the trade over the next two years has become crowded and and the returns have been degraded and that's why it didn't work over the next two years and two years from now i won't know the answer to that question whether it's just cyclical momentum works over the long term it's cyclically out of favor or the trade is crowded and degraded i feel the same way about low price book low price sales investing why does a company trade close to the historic cost of its assets well people aren't giving much of a premium for the actual underlying business that's clear it's likely if you bought a bucket of companies selling closer to their book value you will get a uh more than your fair share companies that are out of favor you know people don't like or aren't valuing the business very highly and i believe that's why it's tended to work over long periods of time before the most recent past but once again like momentum it is a correlation with something that's worked well in the past i think it worked well because low price book low price sales investing has correlated with getting more than your first share of out of favorite companies and if you ask me whether it's going to continue to work i say maybe i'd say possibly likely but i'd mostly say i don't care once again momentum low price book low price sales all these kind of factors that have become popular with people in different investment styles uh are correlations with what's worked well in the past it might indicate that you're getting more than your fair share of a type of company my first day of class i've taught at columbia for the last 23 years in my first day of class i promised to my students that if they do good valuation work the market will agree with them i just never tell them when could be a couple weeks could be two or three years but if they do good valuation work the market will agree the market will agree with them stocks are not stocks are ownership shares of businesses that we value and try to buy at a discount they are not pieces of paper that bounce around that we put sharp ratios and sortings on big difference so it is possible that if we're good at doing valuations on businesses the market will not reward us over the next couple of years but that doesn't mean we're going to stop doing what we're doing that's what stocks are ownership shares of businesses and so that is actually causation we're like private equity investors when we think about stocks we're buying the whole business like most investors would and so i don't know about value investing as defined by morningstar russell may go in and out of favor or may stop working i don't know but valuation investing that's what stocks are ownership shares are businesses so as warren buffett would say value and growth are tied at the hip growth is a portion of how you value something so i think that whole discussion uh as bad as the statistics are they're not very meaningful to me when i think about being a value you
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