UBS economist breaks down Fed rate cuts (or not) and Jamie Dimon shareholder letter

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미국 경제는 견조하나 금리는 장기간 높게 유지될 가능성. 파월 의장은 최근 고용 강세에도 3월 SEP(연내 3회 인하 전망)를 유효하다고 본 것으로 해석됨. 연준은 인하를 원하지만 인플레이션 데이터가 결정적. 기저효과(작년 7~8월 낮은 월간 물가상승)가 연말에 역전되면 금리 인상 가능성도 제기되나 단기 리스크는 아님. 이번 주 CPI 둔화 예상, 3월 PCE 데이터가 2.5% 부근 정체 여부를 가를 것.

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01. all right well the US economy has impressed all year but the flip side of this success are interest rates that may continue to stay higher for longer joining us now to discuss the economic Outlook and more is Jonathan pingle chief us Economist at UBS Jonathan thanks so much for joining us let's take a look uh back at last week we had both the jobs report on Friday and we also had chair Powell speaking kind of outlining his View at a lot of fed speake last week I'm just curious as we kind of move past that March meeting we got the three rate Cuts penciled in do you feel like the FED is still there do they want to be there how are you thinking about um kind of all this buildup towards June which s of feels like where we'll be for the next eight weeks yeah to be honest that was one of the more remarkable things about Sher Powell's comments um last Wednesday um you know the message he seemed completely unfazed referring to a three-month moving average of non-farm payroll employment of 265 ,000 and even after the strong employment report on Friday that average is now 276 so it's not a whole lot different and on the Wednesday in his comments he referred directly back to the March summary of economic projections you know which you know the median participant had you know penciled in three rate Cuts this year so it's it sounds like to the chair you know setting aside a lot of the more hawkish rhetoric coming out of the regional fed presidents it does sound like to the chair that that March sep is kind of still operable to use a word that chair pal has used before U but I really do think it hinges heavily on uh the inflation data we're going to get this week I mean I you know we can we can debate whether or not the strength in the employment report is enough to sort of keep rates higher for longer um but I think ultimately um you know you had a guessed on earlier saying the FED sounds like they would like to cut I I I think they would um it's really inflation that's going to determine whether or not they can well and it it struck us today that you had Jamie Diamond in his shareholder letter saying well we're prepared for interest rates to be 2% to 8% or even more I mean that's a pretty broad range of what they're prepared for and maybe he's just being Jamie Diamond and being safe and preparing for every eventuality but um the idea that we could see rates not come down I mean how How likely do you think that some of your peers on the street not many of them but some of them are saying maybe we won't even get a cut this year so so first of all the the potential the potential for you know there's the risk of something happening are pretty you know and the potential range of potential outcomes here is pretty wide right so I think you know Jamie Diamond and I you know think being you know in a bank you know certainly um you know you you you want to assess and be prepared for any of these risks so you know it could be that inflation not only proves sticky but starts to uh resume increases I think Cher pal actually is worried about that risk as well you know when you get to July and August the base effects are going to flip right we had very low month-over-month increases in inflation in July and August of last year you replace those with relatively strong increases and inflation's going the year riew change is going to start to pick back up as you head into the end of this year I think that's a scenario that um the FED wants to avoid and I and I think that's the kind of scenario that would put you know rate hikes potentially back back on the table at some point I don't think that's the near-term risk here I think the risk right now is you know Bas effects are going their way we are expecting a step down in the CPI uh to be reported um on Wednesday you know we'll get the full run of ppic CPI to look at the March PC inflation data I think that's really also going to tell us a lot about you know are we going to sort of stall at around 2 and a half% inflation or or or is this likely to continue moving lower I mean I think we're going to learn a lot not just in you know the over the-month change in March but when we look at the components um it'll give us I think a much better sense of to go forward