저자: JamieDimon·영상진행자미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼의 인플레이션 경계 발언을 소개하며, 인플레이션이 아직 끝나지 않았고 2% 목표 도달까지 금리가 5%를 넘어설 수 있다는 견해를 전달한다. 다이먼은 인플레이션이 3.5% 수준까지는 내려올 수 있으나 2%까지 낮추기는 어렵고, 연준이 금리를 5% 이상으로 더 올려야 할 수 있다고 주장한다. 이 과정에서 경기 둔화와 해고가 늘어날 수 있다고 본다. 진행자는 연준 기준금리(연방기금금리)와 소매 대출금리의 차이를 설명하며, 시장은 연준이 한 번 더 인상 후 멈추거나 피벗(인하)할 것이라는 베팅이 많다고 전한다. 파월 의장은 피벗 계획이 없다고 밝혔다. 인플레이션 요인으로 최근 유가·휘발유 가격 상승, 1월 모기지 금리 하락에 따른 주택시장 반등을 든다. 1월 강한 고용지표도 금리 인상 우려를 키워 주가 하락 요인이 되었다고 분석한다. 기업 CEO들은 경기침체 대비 입장과 '침체 신호 없음' 입장으로 엇갈리며, 기술주는 광고 지출 감소와 높아진 자금조달 비용으로 부진하다고 진행자는 설명한다. 진행자 개인은 경기 고통이 더 있을 것으로 본다고 밝히며, 매주 수요일 ETF 자동 적립식 투자와 현금 비중 확대를 통한 기회 대기 전략을 소개하고, 비상금과 투자 여력 확보를 강조한다. 영상은 특정 종목에 대한 구체적 매매 권유보다는 거시경제 전망과 투자 자세에 초점을 둔다.
다듬은 글
the fight on inflation isn't over yet at least as according to Jamie dimon who is a CEO of JPMorgan Chase Bank who just did an interview with Reuters and what he said was quote inflation might not come down the way that people think essentially what he's saying is that before you claim this Victory on inflation because we've been seeing inflation come down for the last few months it is not over yet during the interview what he was saying is yeah we've seen inflation come down off the ties but getting it from where we are now down to the two percent Target which is what the Federal Reserve Bank says that they want to do is going to be more difficult than what most people think and that's going to require more pain to the economy he went on to say that quote I just think people should take a deep breath on this one before they declare Victory because one month's number looks good essentially what he's saying is that before we get too excited about the economy being okay we're gonna be able to have the soft landing and everything is going to be just fine understanding that this last bit of inflation to get all the way down to two percent is going to require more work meaning higher interest rates by the better Reserve Bank and that's going to have its own consequences what he said is I think that the Federal Reserve Bank will go to five percent interest rates and then stay there for a while and then see what happens and then he went on to say yeah the inflation comes down to about three and a half percent but we can't get it down from the three and a half percent level down to the two percent level then the Federal Reserve Bank might be forced to go higher than the five percent in interest rates that we have right now now to put that in perspective and explain what that means the Federal Reserve Bank sets interest rates the interest rates that this set are called the federal funds rates these are not mortgage rates these are not the interest rates you pay on a car the federal funds rates are the interest rates that Banks pay when they lend money to one another so you can kind of think of it like the wholesale rate that Banks get to borrow money in now when Banks borrow money at the wholesale rate they then Mark it up and then sell it to you at the retail rate that's why when you go out and borrow money it's going to cost you more money just like when you go to the store uh at Amazon to go buy something Amazon might buy it at the wholesale price from the manufacturer and then sell it to you at the retail price which is the marked up price this is where what Jamie Diamond is saying is that we could see inflation come down even more but to get it down from the three and a half percent level down to the two percent level which is where the Federal Reserve Bank wants that's going to require more work and then that could cause more pain in our economic system because when you keep raising interest rates well the higher interest rates make borrowing money more expensive that slows on the economy that causes more layoffs and that's what he's saying that we have to be ready for and that most people don't see that coming and most people are not predicting that because now what you're seeing a lot of people do is they're betting that one the Federal Reserve Bank is maybe going to raise interest rates one more time and then be done and two that the Federal Reserve Bank might even start pivoting meaning start cutting interest rates why would they do that well if we see a Slowdown in the economy if we see more layoffs then the better Reserve Bank might want to stimulate the economy which would hurt inflation but stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates which makes borrowing money cheaper which then stimulates the economy because now people have more money to spend but that comes at the price of that increasing inflation now as of today Jerome Powell who's the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank is saying that he has no plans to Pivot he has no plans to cut interest rates and in fact he wants to keep inflation down so he wants to keep raising interest rates until inflation comes down and a lot of people are betting that the FED is not going to continue raising interest rates maybe after the next meeting but this is where we're going to be paying attention to what happens with inflation and the jobs numbers now the interesting thing with inflation is looking at kind of where are the prices of things Rising now we've been covering this in Market briefs my free financial newsletter which is why if you haven't joined Market briefs yet I highly recommend you do so it's a completely free newsletter that I created or my team is working every day to break down what's happening in things like inflation in the economy the stock market the housing market crypto and the global economy into a fund witty and easy to read email that way you can stay up to date on what's Happening that way you can make smarter decisions with their money so if you want to join Market briefs it's completely free and I'll put the link to hike and join down in the description below but now if we look at the things that are affecting inflation there's two different inflation numbers that the Federal Reserve Bank looks at they look at the headline inflation number called your CPI and then they also look at the core inflation the Federal Reserve Bank actually prefers looking at core inflation core inflation is when you look at the inflation number and then you take out what they call the volatile numbers which are energy and food because who needs energy and food but they look at those numbers and what we've been seeing is over the last month we have started to see gas prices start to rise again there was just a report that Russia announced that they're going to decrease their production of oil which would also affect gas prices and oil prices how much well I guess time will tell but in general we've been seeing gas prices rise that plays an effect on inflation and in addition to that because we've kind of seen mortgage rates go a little bit lower in January and even towards the end of December well that has also contributed to a kind of unexpected little boom in the housing market which would also contribute to higher inflation so it's going to be interesting to see in February and March when we get the January and February inflation numbers where inflation actually is going because our inflation data and most of our data in general are lagging indicators we don't get the information when it's happening we get the information 30 days after it happened and then people make decisions after after we find the data after the fact so it's going to be interesting to see where inflation is going and it's going to be also interesting to see where the job market is going because in January we got a very strong jobs number which scared a lot of investors because a strong jobs number can also contribute to higher inflation which would contribute to higher interest rates you can kind of see why we're in such a weird stage of our economy because normally a strong jobs number means our economy is booming and the market should rise now you're seeing a strong jobs number people get freaked out and the stock market falls down because they see the strong jobs number and they think that means higher interest rates which mean more pain to the economy so kind of a strange situation that we're in right now but we saw the strong jobs number which could indicate that we have more inflation coming but in addition to that it's where are CEOs really putting their focus because we're starting to see a much bigger diversion like towards the end of 2022 this started to happen but now it's like getting wider and right and wider we have the CEOs saying there's a recession coming we're preparing and we see the effects of it already starting and then if the other CEOs saying we see no signs of a recession we see no signs of an economic slowdown like the American Express CEO keeps saying that we haven't seen any signs of an economic slowdown if you look obviously at the tech sector the tech sector has been really struggling that's partially due to the Slowdown of the economy partially due to a Slowdown in advertising because many of these tech companies rely on advertising dollars businesses spending money and advertising and they've been seeing the advertising money drop while they're also not able to raise as much money as they could before because now investors want to hire a return because when you have to borrow money at a higher rate you have to justify these higher interest rates with higher returns for investors so you have some companies now that are starting to say yeah we are starting to see a Slowdown and this is where you know over the next few months we're going to see this diversion probably get even bigger and then that's where kind of we will see where our economy is really heading now I believe that we're going to see more pain in our economy that's my personal opinion I try to avoid talking about my opinions I try to kind of focus on the facts here but I believe that we have more economic pain ahead but in any case what this means for you is not to blindly follow random guy on YouTube or really blindly follow anybody but just to understand okay what are the options option A is we see pain in the economy option b is the economy continues to Boom what should you do well the thing that you want to do is prepare for the worst and be ready for the best the way you do that is by one having cash to protect yourself from an emergency to having cash to capitalize on investment opportunities because if we do continue to see more pain in the economy that means investment prices asset prices could go on sale and if they go on sale that creates opportunity for you so being prepared for that but then also having an investment strategy like I have what I call an active strategy and a passive strategy a passive strategy and we'll focus just on the stock market to keep it simple a passive strategy in the stock market is every Wednesday it doesn't matter what day you pick but for me it's Wednesday every Wednesday have cash that leaves my checkings account and is automatically invested into the stock market have a portfolio of ETFs and every Wednesday cash is automatically pulled out of my checking account and is invested this does not matter if the market is up does not matter if the Market's down I am constantly always doing this and as passive is automatic and it's consistent so no matter what's happening I have this investment happening so if the Market's going up great my portfolio is rising if the Market's going down great I'm buying more assets with it then I have my active strategy which is now I have cash and right now I'm sitting on more cash than really ever before I have this cash pile that is waiting to be deployed now when will this cache be deployed when I find a good opportunity maybe it's in stocks maybe it's in real estate maybe it's in something else but I have this cash pile that's sitting here that's waiting to find a good investment maybe I wait 12 months maybe I wait 24 months maybe I wait two months I don't know when I find a good enough deal then I will go out and start investing more of this cash now this doesn't mean that I won't invest anything but if I find a good enough deal then I will go out and invest and I think that we're going to see more opportunities in the next 12 to 24 months and so I'm preparing myself now let's assume now that nothing bad happens the economy continues to boom and we completely avoid any sort of economic pain and everything continues to grow well I just got a big bank account and I can use the money to go out and buy more assets or I can use this money to go to Disneyland so it's really your choice it costs you nothing to be prepared but it costs you everything if you're not prepared
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