The American Debt Bubble Explained Peter Schiff x Jaspreet Singh

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미국 경제는 소비 중심 구조이며 저축·생산 기반이 없어 거품 상태다. 가계부채가 한계에 달해 연체율이 오르고 있다. 금리는 여전히 너무 낮고, 금리를 적정 수준으로 올리면 부채 상환 부담으로 경제가 붕괴할 수 있어 연준이 딜레마에 빠져 있다. 2008년 이후 장기간 제로금리가 현재 부채와 인플레이션의 원인이다. 현재 5% 금리도 정상 수준이 아니며, 원자재 가격 급등으로 CPI가 다시 10% 방향으로 오를 것이라 주장한다.

다듬은 글

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01. we live in an economic system that runs on spending so if I make $50,000 a year I in theory can only spend 50,000 but now thanks to credit cards lines of credit maybe I can spend $100,000 which is good in the short term because that means I can go and buy more things today but the problem is like you're mentioning that could hit a potential breaking point and now what we're seeing is Americans are getting tapped out on their debt levels people are maxing out credit cards delinquency rates are starting to rise what does that mean then for the economy and spending in the future and businesses that are relying on this continuous Rising spending yeah well first of all spending should not be what drives an economy that's the inherent problem we have a bubble what should drive an economy is savings and production so when you save money the savings can be invested in productive assets plant and equipment and things like that to produce goods and then once you produce Goods well then you get to consume them you get to spend but America puts the the cart before the horse we want to spend first and and and and not even produce right we want to just go buy stuff that we didn't even make and so the only reason that we could do that is because the rest of the world is making the stuff that we're buying and lending us the money to do do it but that is an unsustainable economic model and you know right now Americans are already leveraged up to the hilt and interest rates are still too low and if interest rates went to where they needed to be pretty much everybody would be broke including the US government uh so I think the FED is ultimately going to keep rates artificially low and I think they're still too low I mean the FED claims that the rates are uh restrictive they're not that's why inflation is accelerating the rates are still too low but if they raise them to an appropriate level assuming they even know where that level is uh I think you know the the debt uh uh ridden economy would implode uh with the weight of that debt service so the FED is kind of trapped between a rock and a hard place that that it created because the reason everybody has so much debt is because the FED kept interest rates uh so low for for so long and so this is the the the obvious consequence I've been warning about it for a long time and now we you know we're having to deal with the consequences so now when you talk about interest rates being so low it's interesting that you say that because obviously I would say most of America believes the opposite that interest rates are way too high I can't buy a home I can't buy a car I can't afford anything well that's that's that's too bad but um you know people have a short memory and they're just comparing the rates we have now to the rates that we had for you know 10 12 years uh you know starting from the 2008 financial crisis until about 20122 so for most of those 14 years rates were you know zero or very close to zero and and so Americans were able to borrow to buy homes at three and four% they were able to get you know ultra low auto loans um credit was was cheap and plentiful and that's the problem that's why we have so much inflation uh but now you know rates are getting back to normal you know they're not even high but given how much debt we have and how big the inflation problem is rates need to be more than just high they need to be very high but we're not even at high we're kind of at a normal rate a 5% rate for an economy that has a normal rate of inflation uh but we don't we have very high inflation even though it's pulled back a little bit from the Peaks uh that's just a temporary decline the trajectory is much higher and especially if you look at the forward-looking indicators look at commodity prices for example they're soaring so they weren't doing that last year but they are this year and so uh these big price increases are going to show up in the CPI later in the year uh when the CPI is moving back towards 10% not down towards 2% if you enjoyed this clip and you want to watch the entire conversation all you got to do is click that button right over there and for those of you who want to stay up to date on the top finance and business news you can join Market briefs by free financial newsletter by clicking that button below thank you for watching and I'll see you in the next one