저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 미국 주식시장이 곧 급락할 가능성이 높으며, 특히 기술주 중심의 과열이 붕괴 위험을 키우고 있다는 비관론. 시장 과열 진단: 다우지수는 이전 고점 약 14,000에서 7,000 아래까지 폭락한 뒤 회복해 약 24,000 문턱에 도달했으나, 미국 경제는 최근 10년간 연평균 약 1.33% 성장에 그쳤다. 과거 모든 광기 어린 주식 급등은 나쁘게 끝났다고 주장. 기술주 약세: 당일 나스닥은 1% 이상 하락했고 구글, 아마존, 애플, 페이스북, 넷플릭스, 엔비디아, 페이팔, EA, 액티비전블리자드 등 주요 기술주가 하락. 2017년 내내 시장을 이끌던 종목들이라 조정 신호로 해석. 골드만삭스 경고: 주식·채권·신용이 동시에 비싼 상태는 1920년대 광란기와 1950년대 황금기에만 있었다며 약세장이 불가피하다고 분석. 중앙은행의 양적완화 축소로 장기채 프리미엄이 상승해 향후 중기 수익률이 낮아질 것으로 전망. 최악 시나리오는 성장 충격과 인플레이션 재가속이 겹치는 경우. 연착륙 가능성 부정: 연착륙을 선호하지만 자신의 추적 경험상 그렇게 되지 않을 것이라고 봄. 뱅가드 수석이코노미스트 조 데이비스는 주식시장 급락 가능성을 약 70%로 보고 대비를 요구. 신용 레버리지 경고: 신용거래(마진debt)가 주식 상승기의 가속 장치였던 것처럼 하락기에는 역방향 가속기가 된다. 시장은 상승보다 하락이 훨씬 빠르며 급락은 매우 신속하게 올 것이라 전망. 중앙은행 정책 리스크: 과거 막대한 유동성 공급이 주가를 끌어올렸는데 이제 주요 중앙은행이 동시에 긴축으로 돌아서는 것은 근대 금융사에서 가장 강력한 매도 신호 중 하나. 옐런 연준 의장도 붐-버스트 우려를 언급하면서 점진적 금리 인상을 계속한다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 주식시장 과열 버블이 예상보다 훨씬 크며 금융 조정은 이미 늦었다. 조정이 오면 월가가 겪을 고통은 전례 없을 것이라고 경고.
다듬은 글
did the NOC omic collapsed begin today and now begin a stock crash the absurdity that we are witnessing in a financial markets is absolutely breathtaking just recently a good friend reminded me that the Dow peaked had just above 14,000 before the last stock market crash and stock prices were definitely overinflated at that time subsequently the Dow crashed below 7000 before rebounding and now thanks to this week s rally we are the threshold of Dow 24,000 when you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average you would be tempted to think that we must be in the greatest economic boom in American history but the truth is that our economy has only grown by an average of just 1 point 3 3 percent over the last 10 years every crazy stock market double throughout our history has always ended badly and this one will be no exception and even though the Dow showed a nice gain on Wednesday the Nasdaq got absolutely hammered in fact almost every major tech stock was down bid the following comes from CN and meanwhile big tech stocks which have propelled the market higher all year were tanking the Nasdaq fell more than 1% led by big drops in Google goog Elle tech 30 owner alphabet Amazon AMZN tech 30 Apple AAPL tech 30 Facebook FB tech 30 and Netflix NFLX tech 30 momentum darlings Nvidia NVDA tech 30 and PayPal py PL tech 30 and red-hot gaming stocks Electronic Arts EA tech 30 and Activision Blizzard a TVI tech 30 plunged 2 they have been some of the market s top stocks throughout most of 2017 many believe that the markets are about to turn down in a major way what goes up must eventually come down and at this point even Goldman Sachs is warning that a bear market is coming it has seldom been the case that equities bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time only in the Roaring Twenties and the golden fifties Goldman Sachs international strategists including Christian Mueller bliss Minh wrote in the note this week all good things must come to an end and there will be a bear market eventually they said as Central Bank's cut back their quantitative easing pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer dated bonds returns are likely to be lower across assets over the medium term the analysts said a second less likely scenario would involve fast Payne stock and bond valuations would both get hit with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved the negative growth shock or a growth shock alongside and inflation pickup nobody believes that this crazy stock market party can go on forever these days the real debate seems to be between those that are convinced that the markets will crash violently and those that believe that a soft landing can be achieved I would definitely be in favor of a soft landing but those that have followed my work for an extended period of time know that I do not think that this will happen and with each passing day more prominent voices in the financial world are coming to the same conclusion here is one recent example Vanguard s chief economist Joe Davis said investors need to be prepared for a significant downturn in the stock market which is now at a 70% chance of crashing that chance is significantly higher than it has been over the past 60 years The Economist added it s unreasonable to expect rates of returns which exceeded our own bullish forecasts from 2010 to continue a stock market crash has followed every major stock double in our history and right at this moment we are in the terminal phase of one of the greatest stock market levels ever there are so many indicators that are screaming that we are in danger and one of the favorite ones that I like to point to his margin debt the following commentary and chart were recently published by will Fricker this chart shows margin debt red line left scale and the SNP 500 blue line right scale both adjusted for inflation to tune out the effects of the dwindling value of the dollar over the decade stock market leverages the big accelerator on the way up leverage supplies liquidity that has been freshly created by the lender this isn't t-money moving from one asset to another this is money that is being created to be plowed into stocks and when stocks sink leverage becomes the big accelerator on the way down markets tend to go down much faster than they go up and I have a feeling that when this market crashes it is going to happen very very rapidly the only reason stock prices ever got this high in the first place was due to unprecedented intervention by global central banks they created trillions of dollars out of thinner and plowed those funds directly into the financial markets and of course that was going to inflate asset prices but now global central banks are putting on the brakes simultaneously and this has got to be one of the greatest sell signals that we have ever witnessed in modern financial history even Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says that she is concerned about causing a boom bust condition in the economy and yet she insists that the Fed is going to continue to gradually raise rates anyway Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is concerned with growth yet out of hand and buss is committed to continuing to raise rates in a gradual manner we don t want to cause a boom bust condition in the economy Yellen told Congress in her semiannual testimony Wednesday while Yellen did not specifically commit to a December rate hike her comments indicated that her views have not changed with her desire for the central bank to continue normalizing policy after years of historically high accommodation I never thought that the stock market bubble would get this large we are way way overdue for a financial correction but right now we are in a party that never seems to and but and it will and when that happens the pain that will be experienced on Wall Street will be unlike anything that we have ever seen before Michael Schneider when this market crashes it s going to happen very very rapidly the Dow peaked at 14,000 before the last stock market crash and now down 24,000 is here the absurdity that we are witnessing in a financial markets is absolutely breathtaking just recently a good friend reminded me that peaked at just above 14,000 before the last stock market crash and stock prices were definitely overinflated at that time subsequently the Dow crashed below 7000 before rebounding and now thanks to this week s rally we are the threshold of about 24,000 when you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average you would be tempted to think that we must be in the greatest economic boom in American history but the truth is that our economy has only grown by an average of just 1 point 3 3 percent over the last 10 years every crazy stock market double throughout our history has always ended badly and this one will be no exception and even though the Dow showed a nice gain on Wednesday the Nasdaq got absolutely hammered in fact almost every major tech stock was down bid the following comes from CNN meanwhile big tech stocks which have propelled the market higher all year were thanking the Nasdaq fell more than 1% led by big drops in Google goog Elle tech 30 owner alphabet Amazon AMZN tech 30 Apple AAPL tech 30 Facebook FB tech 30 and Netflix NFLX tech 30 momentum darlings Nvidia NVDA tech 30 and PayPal py PL tech 30 and red-hot gaming stocks Electronic Arts EA tech 30 and Activision Blizzard a TVI tech 30 plunged 2 they have been some of the market s top stocks throughout most of 2017 many believe that the markets are about to turn down in a major way what goes up must eventually come down and at this point even Goldman Sachs is warning that a bear market is coming it has seldom been the case that equities bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time only in the Roaring Twenties and the golden 50s goldman sachs international strategists including christian millard Whisman wrote in the note this week all good things must come to an end and there will be a bear market eventually they said as central bank's cut back their quantitative easing pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer dated bonds returns are likely to be lower cross assets over the medium-term the analyst said a second less likely scenario would involve fast pain stock and bond valuations would both get hit with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved a negative growth shock or a growth shock alongside an inflation pickup nobody believes that this crazy stock market pretty can go on forever these days the real debate seems to be between those that are convinced that the markets will crash violently and those that believe that a soft landing can be achieved I would definitely be in favor of a soft landing but those that have followed my work for an extended period of time know that I do not think that this will happen and with each passing day more prominent voices in the financial world are coming to the same conclusion here is one recent example Vanguard s chief economist Joe Davis said investors need to be prepared for a significant downturn in the stock market which is now at a 70 percent chance of crashing that chance is significantly higher than it has been over the past 60 years The Economist added it s unreasonable to expect rates of returns which exceeded our own bullish forecasts from 2010 to continue a stock market crash has followed every major stock double in our history and right at this moment we are in the terminal phase of one of the greatest stock market levels ever there are so many indicators that are screaming that we are in danger and one of the favorite ones that I like to point to his margin debt the following commentary and chart were recently published by will fricker markets tend to go down much faster than they go up and I have a feeling that when this market crashes it is going to happen very very rapidly the only reason stock prices ever got this high in the first place was due to unprecedented intervention by global central banks they created trillions of dollars out of thinner and plowed those funds directly into the financial markets and of course that was going to inflate asset prices but now global central banks are putting on the brakes simultaneously and this has got to be one of the greatest sell signals that we have ever witnessed in modern financial history even Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says that she is concerned about causing a boom-bust condition in the economy and yet she insists now the Fed is going to continue to gradually raise rates anyway Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is concerned with growth get out of hand and bus is committed to continuing to raise rates in a gradual manner we don t want to cause a boom bus condition in the economy Yellen told Congress in her semiannual testimony Wednesday while Yellen did not specifically commit to a December rate hike her comments indicated that her views have not changed with her desire for the central bank to continue normalizing policy after years of historically high accommodation I never thought that this stock market bubble would get this large we are way way overdue for a financial correction but right now we are in a party that never seems to and but and it will and when that happens the pain that will be experienced on Wall Street will be unlike anything that we have ever seen before nice and the golden fifties Goldman Sachs international strategists including Christian Muller Gliss Minh wrote in the note this week all good things must come to an end and there will be a bear market eventually they said as central bank's cut back their quantitative easing pushing up the premiums investors demand to hold longer dated bonds returns are likely to be lower across assets over the medium term the analysts said a second less likely scenario would involve fast Payne stock and bond valuations would both get hit with the mix depending on whether the trigger involved the negative growth shock or a growth shock alongside and inflation pickup nobody believes that this crazy stock market pretty can go on forever these days the real debate seems to be between those that are convinced that the markets will crash violently and those that believe that a soft landing can be achieved I would definitely be in favor of a soft landing but those that have followed my work for an extended period of time know that I do not think that this will happen and with each passing day more prominent voices in the financial world are coming to the same conclusion tea money moving from one asset to another this is money that is being created to be plowed into stocks and when stocks sink leverage becomes the big accelerator on the way down markets tend to go down much faster than they go up and I have a feeling that when this market crashes it is going to happen very very rapidly the only reason stock prices ever got this high in the first place was due to unprecedented intervention by global central banks they created trillions of dollars out of thinner and plowed those funds directly into the financial markets and of course that was going to inflate asset prices but now global central banks are putting on the brakes simultaneously and this has got to be one of the greatest sell signals that we have ever witnessed in modern financial history even Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen says that she is concerned about causing a boom bust condition in the economy and yet she insists that the Fed is going to continue to gradually raise rates anyway Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is concerned with growth get out of hand and bus is committed to continuing to raise rates in a gradual met in fact almost every major tech stock was down bid the following comes from CN and meanwhile big tech stocks which have propelled the market higher all year were tanking the Nasdaq fell more than 1% led by big drops in Google goog Elle tech 30 owner alphabet Amazon AMZN tech 30 Apple AAPL tech 30 Facebook FB tech 30 and Netflix NFLX tech 30 momentum darlings Nvidia NVDA tech 30 and PayPal PYP Elle tech 30 and red-hot gaming stocks Electronic Arts EA tech 30 and Activision Blizzard a TVI tech 30 plunged 2 they have been some of the market s top stocks throughout most of 2017 many believe that the markets are about to turn down in a major way what goes up must eventually come down and at this point even Goldman Sachs is warning that a bear market is coming it has seldom been the case that equities bonds and credit have been similarly expensive at the same time only in the Roaring Twenties in here is one recent example Vanguard s chief economist Joe Davis said investors need to be prepared for a significant downturn in the stock market which is now at a 70 percent chance of crashing that chance is significantly higher than and has been over the past 60 years The Economist added it s unreasonable to expect rates of returns which exceeded our own bullish forecasts from 2010 to continue a stock market crash has followed every major stock double in our history and right at this moment we are in the terminal phase of one of the greatest stock market levels ever there are so many indicators that are screaming that we are in danger and one of the favorite ones that I like to point to his margin debt the following commentary and chart were recently published by will frikar this chart shows margin debt red line left scale and the SNP 500 blue line right scale both adjusted for inflation to tune out the effects of the dwindling value of the dollar over the decade stock market leverages the big accelerator on the way up leverage supplies liquidity that has been freshly created by the lender this did the NOC omic collapse begin today and now begin as stock crash the absurdity that we are witnessing in a financial markets is absolutely breathtaking just recently a good friend reminded me that the Dow peaked had just above 14,000 before the last stock market crash and stock prices were definitely overinflated at that time subsequently the Dow crashed below 7,000 before rebounding and now thanks to this week s rally we are the threshold of Dow 24,000 when you look at a chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average you would be tempted to think that we must be in the greatest economic boom in American history but the truth is that our economy has only grown by an average of just one point three three percent over the last ten years every crazy stock market double throughout our history has always ended badly and this one will be no exception and even though the Dow showed a nice gain on Wednesday the Nasdaq got absolutely hammered
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