PETER SCHIFF Says The Fed Is Behind The Curve Financial Conditions At Loosest Level Since

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결론: 피터 쉬프는 연준이 금리 인상에도 금융여건이 역대급으로 느슨해 경기침체 후 금리 인하로 갈 것이며, 달러는 더 하락하고 은은 저평가돼 매수 기회라고 주장. [금융여건·연준] 시카고 연준 금융여건지수가 2017.11.10 기준 -0.93으로 1994년 1월 이후 가장 느슨한 수준이라고 언급. 연준이 1년간 금리를 올리고 대차대조표 축소를 말했지만 금융여건은 제로금리 때보다 느슨함. 쉬프는 연준이 '너무 늦고 너무 적게' 움직여 '커브 뒤처짐(behind the curve)' 상태라고 진단. 공식 물가상승률이 금리 인상폭만큼 또는 그 이상 올랐다고 지적. [경기·금리 전망] 쉬프는 연준이 추가 긴축은 없고 경기침체 진입 시 금리를 다시 인하할 것이라고 전망. 트럼프 당선 이후의 낙관은 거짓 낙관이며 1~2년 내 경기침체 진입은 막지 못한다고 주장. [달러] 약세 달러가 금융여건 완화에 기여하며, 연준의 금리인상 기대로 달러가 올랐지만 실제 인상이 부족해 달러는 훨씬 더 하락할 것이라고 전망. [투기적 과잉투자] 느슨한 금융여건이 기업 차입을 쉽게 만들어 잘못된 투자(malinvestment)를 낳는다고 경고. 영화관 무제한 구독 서비스 '무비패스'를 예로 들어 장기적으로 파산할 수밖에 없는 기업도 자금을 조달하고 있다고 비판. [은 매수 주장] 은 가격이 금 대비 극단적으로 낮다고 주장하며 금·은 비율이 약 75:1로 역사적 평균(16:1, 현대 평균 40:1)보다 크게 높다고 언급. 인도의 은 수요 증가(축제 시즌 15%)와 2016년 은 생산 감소, 중국 태양광 수요 급증을 근거로 제시. 영상 후반부 광고에서 영국왕립조폐국 브리타니아 은화를 프리미엄 1.49달러로 판매하며 '은 바겐세일'이라고 홍보.

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01. the curve financial conditions that loosest level since 1994 according to data compiled by the Chicago Fed financial conditions have reached the loosest level in the US since January 1994 this despite Federal Reserve tightening over the last year on November 10th the Chicago Fed national financial conditions index hit minus 0.9 3's Peter Schiff pointed out in his most recent podcast that was early on in the dot-com bubble the Fed has been raising interest rates and talking about shrinking its balance sheet why is it that financial conditions are looser now than when rates were still at zero peter said it's because the Federal Reserve is way behind the curve yeah they've raised the interest rates but it's too little too late even the official inflation rates have risen as much if not more than the rate hikes meanwhile the stock market keeps going up and now they do have the dollar going down weakening dollar actually adds to the loosening of financial conditions which are obviously going to get a lot looser if the Fed doesn't really start jacking up rates faster this follows conventional wisdom as the Financial Times reported New York Federal Reserve had William Dudley said last month that the loose financial conditions could indicate the need for further Fed tightening when financial conditions Jesus has been the case recently this can provide additional impetus for the decision to continue to remove monetary policy accommodation but Peter doesn't believe that tightening is going to happen in fact I think they're going to get ready to cut rates again and loosen financial positions even further as the economy goes into a recession or lapses back into recession which I said in my last podcast I think we would have already been there had Hillary Clinton won the election and since Donald Trump won and you have all this false optimism it is the allowing the onset of that recession for a year or two but it's not preventing it so if financial conditions are this loose now when the Fed is tightening imagine how much looser they are going to get with a Fed is easing so what's the problem as the Financial Times pointed out lacks conditions including low bond yields tepid volatility and tight credit raises concerns that the Fed won't be able to keep the economy from overheating as Peter said the loose conditions make it extremely easy for companies to borrow money this leads to malinvestment there's cheap money there's money flying around floating around all kinds of crazy businesses can get funded he talked at length about a company called movie past it allows subscribers to go to the movie theater as often as once a day the pricing structure the company has in place is guaranteed to lose money in the long run the company is eventually going to go bankrupt it's only a question of when but the fact that they're even a company the fact that they can even sucker investors into funding this the fact that they're there is the function of loose financial conditions if this was a normal market with normal interest rates there's no way a crazy company like movie paths could ever come into existence looking at the bigger picture peter said this is yet another reason he thinks the dollar is going to go down it's going to go much lower because as I said the rate I accept the Fed delivered were too little too late the dollar rallied on the anticipation of these rate hikes but we never got enough hikes to justify rally and of course the hikes only saw the seeds of their own reversal because eventually the Fed has to reverse course and start lowering rates you silver on sale take advantage of the buying opportunity Peter ship the price of silver is and extremely low levels compared to gold that makes this a perfect time to invest in the white metal Indian seemed to recognize this buying opportunity according to the economic times silver demand was up 15% during the standards and I Wally festival season on increased purchases of coins idols and silverware analysts attributed the surge in silver buying to lack of consumer confidence in the economy and Silver's relatively low price shift gold has the perfect way for you to take advantage of the silver buying opportunity we have obtained a limited supply of 2013 and 2014 one ounce silver Britannia bullion coins minted by the British Royal Mint these beautiful coins are ready to ship right now for as little as one dollar and 49 cents over spot per coin this is a boolean point at better than bullion coin price but has the upside of potentially garnering collectible value in the future because they have a mint privy mark on edge of the coin the 2013 has a snake on the edge and the 2014 year has a horse on the edge there is widespread speculation that silver is said to soar an article in Barron's last week predicted the white metal will emerge as a winner for the second straight year with a per ounce price of $17.49 for silver futures as a Friday analysts say the white metal is poised for a big climb particularly as the gold to silver ratio stands well above historical averages Peter Schiff talked about the silver gold ratio over the summer noting it is historically very high this means silver is extremely undervalued the current silver to gold ratio stands at nearly 75 : 1 this means you can buy 75 ounces of silver with one ounce of gold consider the historic average ratio hovers around 16 : 1 and the modern average over the last century is around 40 : 1 as Peter said this is silver on sale it's one of the greatest silver sales of all time relative to the price of gold that makes this the ideal time to take advantage of this special offer on silver Royal British Mint Britannia coins silver is up around six percent this year but it has not kept pace with Gold's Rus this despite tightening silver supply silver mined in 2016 fell by 0.6% to 880 5.8 million ounces silver scrap supply fell to 139 point seven million ounces in 2016 despite higher silver prices it was the first decline in overall silver production since 2002 there is also reason to believe silver demand will increase over the next several years the white metal plays an integral role in solar panel production and solar energy demand in China is surging in its 13 five-year plan Beijing aims to triple its solar capacity by 2020 last year ranked as the strongest on record for solar related silver demand this special price on silver britannia bullion coins comes at a perfect time as the table appears set for a silver bull run these beautiful bullion points produced by the British Royal Mint are highly prized around the globe by both investors and collectors ship gold has a limited supply and is offering them for as low as one dollar and 49 cents over the spot price of silver you won't find a lower premium on a nationally minted point you market keeps going up and now they do have the dollar going down a weakening dollar actually adds to the loosening of financial conditions which are obviously going to get a lot looser if the Fed doesn't really start jacking up rates faster this follows conventional wisdom as the Financial Times reported New York Federal Reserve had William Dudley said last month that the loose financial conditions could indicate the need for further Fed tightening when financial conditions Jesus has been the case recently this can provide additional impetus for the decision to continue to remove monetary policy accommodation but Peter doesn't believe that tightening is going to happen in fact I think they're going to get ready to cut rates again and loosen financial positions even further as the economy goes into a recession or relapses back into recession which I said in my last podcast I think we would have already been there had Hillary Clinton won the election and since Donald Trump won and you have all this false optimism it is Bill but the fact that there even accompanied the fact that they can even sucker investors into funding this the fact that they're there is the function of loose financial conditions if this was a normal market with normal interest rates there's no way a crazy company like movie paths could ever come into existence looking at the bigger picture Peter said this is yet another reason he thinks the dollar is going to go down it's going to go much lower because as I said the rate I accept the Fed delivered were too little too late the dollar rallied on the anticipation of these rate hikes but we never got enough hikes to justify rally and of course the hikes only saw the seeds of their own reversal because eventually the Fed has to reverse course and start lowering rates you lying the onset of that recession for a year or two but it's not preventing it so if financial conditions are this loose now when the Fed is tightening imagine how much looser they are going to get with a Fed is easing so what's the problem as the Financial Times pointed out lacks conditions including low bond yields tepid volatility and tight credit raises concerns that the Fed won't be able to keep the economy from overheating as Peter said the loose conditions make it extremely easy for companies to borrow money this leads to malinvestment there's cheap money there's money flying around floating around all kinds of crazy businesses can get funded he talked at length about a company called movie past it allows subscribers to go to the movie theater as often as once a day the pricing structure the company has in place is guaranteed to lose money in the long run the company is eventually going to go bankrupt it's only a question of when silver on sale take advantage of the buying opportunity Peter Schiff the price of silver is and extremely low levels compared to gold that makes this a perfect time to invest in the white metal Indian seemed to recognize this buying opportunity according to the economic times silver demand was up 15% during the standards and I Wally festival season on increased purchases of coins idols and silverware analysts attributed the surge in silver buying to lack of consumer confidence in the economy and Silver's relatively low price shift gold has the perfect way for you to take advantage of the silver buying opportunity we have obtained a limited supply of 2013 and 2014 one ounce silver Britannia bullion coins minted by the British Royal Mint these beautiful coins are ready to ship right now for as little as one dollar and four the curve financial conditions that loosest level since 1994 according to data compiled by the Chicago Fed financial conditions have reached the loosest level in the US since January 1994 this despite Federal Reserve tightening over the last year on November 10th the Chicago Fed national financial conditions index hit minus 0.9 3's Peter Schiff pointed out in his most recent podcast that was early on in the dot-com bubble the Fed has been raising interest rates and talking about shrinking its balance sheet why is it that financial conditions are looser now than when rates were still at zero peter said it's because the Federal Reserve is wait behind the curve yeah they've raised the interest rates but it's too little too late even the official inflation rates have risen as much if not more than the rate hikes meanwhile the stock