WARNING: Hedge Fund Manager Ray Dalio Predicts Bond Market Investors’ Worst Fears

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결론: 영상은 트럼프 취임 첫 SOTU 연설의 낙관적 경제 묘사와 달리, 레이 달리오의 경고를 근거로 향후 채권시장 약세와 금리 상승 위험을 강조하며 현금 보유보다 금 등 위험 분산을 시사한다. [트럼프 SOTU 연설 평가] 연설은 실업률 하락과 저소득층 소득 증가를 내세운 낙관적 경제 메시지였다고 평가됨. 진행자는 데이터는 좋지만 그 호황이 수년 전 시작된 경기 사이클의 마지막 성과일 수 있다고 봄. [레이 달리오 경고] 달리오는 향후 1~2년 경제 성장은 지속되나 연준이 예상보다 빠르게 긴축할 수 있다고 경고. 미국 채권시장이 40년 내 가장 약세장이 될 수 있다는 전망(블룸버그 인용 기사 취지). 2016년 대선 이후 인플레이션과 재정 긴축 우려를 제기했고 이것이 현실화되고 있다고 봄. [투자 조언] 달리오 원칙에 따라 현금 보유보다 리스크 대비 수단(금 등) 고려를 시사. [그레이엄 서머스 주장] 10년물 미국채 금리가 2018년 기준 2009~2014년 수준으로 재상승, 10년 하락추세 돌파 주장. 기업·정부 부채가 누적된 상황에서 금리 상승은 위험하다고 봄. 전 세계 부채 15조 달러 증가 언급. [리스크] 정치적 양극화, 경제 격차 등 구조적 위험 요인 제기. [출연자 전망] 달리오: 채권 약세·금리 상승 경계, 경기 사이클 말기 우려. 서머스: 금리 상승 추세 지속, 부채 위기 경고.

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01. hedge fund manager Ray Dalio predicts bond market investors worst fears Ray Dalio economic predictions America must be doing just mighty fine that s the only conclusion any casual observer would reach after President Donald Trump has first State of the Union SOT you address on January 30th such speeches have often served as platforms to unveil u.s.

02. foreign policy in 1823 President James Monroe introduced the Monroe Doctrine to warn European colonial powers that they should start pulling back from the Americas and the Caribbean George W Bush used his first SOT you address to introduce the axis of evil concept which President Obama never quite abandoned as for President Trump his SOTU address focused on the economy and judging by the numbers from lowest unemployment rates to income gains in the lower classes it was a home run the feeling in the chamber of the US Congress was one of overwhelming satisfaction there is no other way to explain the fact that Trump gladly interrupted his words to save her 115 resounding applause breaks didn't he somebody described from past divisive even the jeering from the Democratic Isles lacked conviction then again if you trusted the spectacularly optimistic picture of the American economy that the president described there was nothing to rebuff however Ray Dalio founder and chairman of Bridgewater associates LP throws a hot dose of reality over Trump s magical vision he admits that the data indicators are good but warns that the economy happens to be enjoying its last successes of the economic growth cycle that effectively began years ago rather he warns that Wall Street is heading for what could be the most bearish bond market in the past 40 years source Dalio says bonds face biggest bear market in almost 14 years bloomberg January 24th 2018 Ray Dalio prediction for the bond market trade Ally OS Bridgewater says the economy will continue its run for the next one to two years however he warns the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy much faster than expected that s what could turn everything back Ray Dalio is not one you should dismiss Ray Dalio s hedge fund Bridgewater associates posted a record net profit for his clients source Ray Dalio made fifty billion dollars for his clients topping list of biggest hedge fund money makers ever CNBC January 26th 2018 Ray Dalio s portfolio was set up to literally consider all possible market situations that s why they call it an all-weather portfolio he runs the Jeep of hedge funds source remember the all-weather portfolio it s having a killer year September 27th 2016 nobody will want bonds after the Federal Reserve reduces their monetary stimulus this will cause larger deficits encouraging the government to sell securities to raise money when Trump was elected in November 2016 many raised concerns about inflation and the fiscal tightening that the Fed would employ to fix it they were right says Dalio accept the concerns are about to get tested a little later than expected therefore given Ray Dalio s principles the advice for investors is to not hold cash even as he sees a mountain of risks on the horizon perhaps what he s really saying is to consider investing in gold which Everts the risks despite what Trump s SOTU address implied Dalio has noticed significant warning signs related to political divisions and economic disparity this is remarkably honest given that trade Ali OS net worth is 17.0 billion dollars so have we as Trump said reached a new American moment the SOTU address promised everything that Dalio did not Trump mentioned that's so far in his administration the economy has created some 2.4 million new jobs 200,000 of which are in manufacturing of course Trump boasted about the benefits of his tax reform claiming that it was the biggest in American history it wasn't he Reagan s was bigger more significantly he suggested that the tax cuts would deliver the bulk of the benefits to the middle classes and small business owners he wasn't he lying though he was lacking in precision the numbers are clear larger companies are the biggest beneficiaries of the tax cuts their shareholders and executives are as well the president also promised the start of a massive infrastructure improvement campaign there was no data from previous years to compare the numbers he put forth but it sure sounded impressive in the end Trump had plenty of reassuring points for the military-industrial complex Isis may have been defeated but the threats just keep piling on the best pert is that when it comes to defense There s generally bipartisan support so of all the promises and statements the ones referring to threats that need to feeding will inevitably get the most attention plus you can be sure that the Lockheed Martin's and Northrop Grumman of this world will have no shortage of contracts or hiring campaigns is the bond market about to slap the euphoria out of the stock market cynics will say wider izing rates matter if yield is where it was in 2009 2010 2011 2013 and 2014 oh it matters Graham Summers shows us why by Graham Summers via gains pains and capital rates continued to rise those stocks remain oblivious the yield on the 10-year US Treasury continues to soar with a confirmed breakout from its 10-year downtrend now cynics would ask why does this matter the yield is at the same level as it was in 2009 2010 2011 2013 and 2014 it matters the cause throughout this time period corporates and governments were adding debt corporations added 2.3 trillion dollar in debt during this time period and amount equal to the GDP of the United Kingdom at the same time Oh easy the central government marketable debt rose from 28 trillion dollar to 42 trillion dollar roughly 12 trillion dollar or an amount slightly larger than the GDP of China all of this was issued throughout this period based on the assumption of low interest rates the other issue is that while rates have been at this level before every single time they moved lower soon after take a look at that chart again the momentum is now clearly up not down the u.s.

03. is not alone the yield on ten-year German buns has also broken its downtrend even Japan as sovereign bonds are coming into the inflationary crosshairs with yields on the 10-year Japanese government bond just beginning to break about their long-term downtrend globally the world has added over 15 trillion dollar in debt since 2009 and all of this was based on interest rates that were closed or even below zero all of this is at risk of blowing up has rates continued to rise the time to prepare for this is now before things blow up on that note we are putting together an executive summary outlining all of these issues as well as what s in terms of Fed policy when the everything bubble bursts it will be available exclusively to our clients if you d like to have a copy delivered to a yeren box when it s completed you can join the wait list here HTTP phoinix capita marketing.com slash te b dot HTML best regards Graham Summers chief market strategist Phoenix Capital Research you was nothing to rebuff however Ray Dalio founder and chairman of Bridgewater associates LP throws a hot dose of reality over Trump s magical vision he admits that the data indicators are good but warns that the economy happens to be enjoying its last successes of the economic growth cycle that effectively began years ago rather he warns that Wall Street is heading for what could be the most bearish bond market in the past 40 years source Dalio says bonds face biggest bear market in almost 40 years bloomberg January 24th 2018 Ray Dalio prediction for the bond market trade Ally OS Bridgewater says the economy will continue its run for the next one notices of evil concept which President Obama never quite abandoned as for President Trump his SOTU address focused on the economy and judging by the numbers from lowest unemployment rates to income gains in the lower classes it was a home run the feeling in the chamber of the US Congress was one of overwhelming satisfaction there is no other way to explain the fact that Trump gladly interrupted his words to savor 115 resounding applause breaks didn't he somebody described from past divisive even the jeering from the Democratic Isles lacked conviction then again if you trusted the spectacularly optimistic picture of the American economy that the president described there who years however he warns the Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy much faster than expected that s what could turn everything back Ray Dalio is not one you should dismiss Ray Dalio s hedge fund Bridgewater associates posted a record net profit for his clients source Ray Dalio made fifty billion dollars for his clients topping list of biggest hedge fund money makers ever CNBC January 26th 2018 Ray Dalio s portfolio was set up to literally consider all possible market situations that s why they call it an all-weather portfolio he runs the jeep of hedge funds source remember hedge fund manager Ray Dalio predicts bond market investors worst fears Ray Dalio economic predictions America must be doing just mighty fine that s the only conclusion any casual observer would reach after President Donald Trump has first State of the Union SOT you address on January 30th such speeches have often served as platforms to unveil u.s.

04. foreign policy in 1823 President James Monroe introduced the Monroe Doctrine to warn European colonial powers that they should start pulling back from the Americas and the Caribbean George W Bush used his first SOT you address to introduce the Agri the all-weather portfolio it s having a killer year September 27th 2016 nobody will want bonds after the Federal Reserve reduces their monetary stimulus this will cause larger deficits encouraging the government to sell securities to raise money when Trump was elected in November 2016 many raised concerns about inflation and the fiscal tightening that the Fed would employ to fix it they were right says Dalio except the concerns are about to get tested a little later than expected therefore given Ray Dalio s principles the advice for investors is to not hold cash even as he sees a mountain of risks on the horizon