저자: BillFleckenstein · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 주식시장이 큰 반전을 앞두고 있으며, 비트코인은 환상이고 금이 진짜 돌파구라는 주장. [시장 상황] 2017년 12월 4일 기준, 상원의 세법안 통과 후 S&P500은 장초반 약 17포인트(0.75%) 상승했으나 이후 하락 반전해 나스닥은 1% 이상 하락 마감. 다우는 0.3% 상승. [기술적 신호] 나스닥은 금요일 큰 행잉맨 캔들을 만든 뒤 하락해 부정적 패턴으로 해석. 반도체 Skyworks와 나스닥100 선물에 소규모 숏 포지션을 잡았으며, 손절 가능성을 언급. [정치·환율] 세법안 통과 후 달러는 수혜를 봤으나 트럼프와 민주·공화당 간 충돌 심화가 외국인 투자자에게 달러 강세 요인이 될 수 있다고 봄. 판단은 '매도 후 뉴스' 조짐을 기다리는 것. [시장 취약성] 주식시장이 하락 시 스스로를 먹어치우는 구조(변동성 매도자·전략 추종자 간 상호 충돌)에 취약하다고 경고. Paul Tudor Jones가 펀드 청산을 결정한 사례와 Howard Marks의 유동성 감소 경고를 인용. [기타] 채권은 소폭 약세, 유가 1.5% 하락, 금속 약 0.5% 하락. 비트코인은 세대별 선호 차이와 중앙은행 유동성에 따른 투기적 열풍이며 금이 본질적 가치라고 주장. [출연자 발언] 세법안은 중산층 증세·기업 감세 구조이며 최종안은 달라질 수 있다는 견해. 장기적으로 경기침체(depression) 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
원문이 영어 자막이므로 영어로 다듬어 정리했습니다. 자막 중복 구간과 음성인식 오류를 바로잡았습니다.
Bill Fleckenstein, president of Fleckenstein Capital. On Friday, December 4th, late in the afternoon and well after the market closed, we found out that the ABC News story about Michael Flynn was only partially correct and potentially nowhere near as problematic for the Trump administration as it first seemed. Then early Saturday morning, the Senate passed the tax bill, as expected. I kept a close watch on how the market opened Sunday night and how it traded today, with the most important potential development being whether the market would sell the news or push higher.
The S&P 500 futures opened about 16.5 points higher last night and then traded in a tiny range. I only bring that up because I was somewhat shocked at how many different markets opened at a particular level and then just sat there. That didn't really strike me as what one would expect if the trends in force were going to keep motoring in the same direction. That's not the kind of observation I would normally act on, but I thought it was odd, so I'm passing it along.
In the first hour of trading today, the S&P 500 was about 17 points higher, or 0.75%, and the Dow was up more than 1%. Interestingly enough, however, the Nasdaq was red, with semiconductors particularly so, and it was sporting an ugly pattern: it had formed a big hanging man candlestick on Friday and then traded down. Patterns like that are quite meaningful, which is why I pass that along as well.
I took a little action by shorting Skyworks and Nasdaq 100 futures, the latter for the first time in about 20 years, but both were small positions. In the afternoon, a Nasdaq rally trimmed the losses to almost nothing, and it looked like I would get stopped out on my futures short, which was set at a level that hadn't changed. But that rally fizzled just in time, and it rolled over to trade back to the day's lows. It then tried to stabilize but instead slid again to close down more than 1%. The Dow gained 0.3%, while the S&P 500 was slightly lower.
I decided to wait and see how tomorrow goes before doing anything else. I intend to be very careful, and under no circumstances will I let this trade go against me. I would grade today's action as supportive of, but inconclusive regarding, my exhaustion thesis.
Away from stocks, green paper was the beneficiary of the Senate passing the tax bill. But here too I am looking for a sell-the-news development, because while the tax bill has almost certainly been discounted, the potential skirmishes between Trump, the Democrats, and the Republicans are only likely to intensify. The Democrats want to believe Trump stole the election, because how else could he have won, and that he is somehow guilty of doing something illegal. Of course, Trump is fed up with all that. Meanwhile, the Republicans take turns being mad at him or at the Democrats.
The bottom line is that I think the ugliness of the infighting will be especially bullish for foreigners, which is why I think it has a chance to have more of an impact on the currency markets than anywhere else. If by chance the stock market does sell the news, then any of the conflicts between the political parties could become a cause for concern after being laughed off for as long as the market was going higher.
While I'm on that subject, the possibility of the market feeding on itself on the downside remains quite high. The most important takeaway from last Friday morning was how much damage was done so easily in the space of no time. It doesn't take much imagination to see that if action like that lasted for very long, it could really feed on itself, as volatility sellers and adherents of all the other clever strategies would be beating on each other when the going gets weird.
For those who are feeling sane and left out of the party, I would just like to share that you are not alone. Paul Tudor Jones, who is as smart about investing as anyone and as great a trader as there is, has decided to close one of his funds because he hasn't been able to do well in this crazy environment where nothing makes sense. There were various quotes from Jones over the weekend, but I wanted to share this one: "In the face of a shock, investors may be surprised to find themselves jammed running for the exit." That is just another way of saying that the market is very brittle and liable to feed on itself on the way down.
Howard Marks recently made the same point but said it differently: "The amount and quality of liquidity is lower than people recognize. Hidden leverage in the market will make a mass exit even more challenging." As I say, these are just other ways of describing the brittle, crash-like structure that I have been discussing for a while now.
As for other markets, fixed income was slightly weaker, oil lost 1.5%, and the metals fell about 0.5%.
Below are three questions and answers from the Q&A sessions with Bill Fleckenstein.
**On the tax cuts:** A viewer wrote in asking whether he was missing something. His wife is a CPA and equity partner in her firm, pulling in about $400K a year. She ran the numbers on both the House and Senate bills, and as things stand now, if they use last year's return, they would owe $3,000 to $4,000 more a year in taxes if this passes. "So they want the middle class to pay for a tax decrease on corporations? Does the public know this? This is the biggest screw job ever." Fleck's answer: "You and I are of the same opinion. Maybe the final plan will be different. Some will get cuts, but many will pay more so that corporations can pay less."
**On CNBC being turned off:** Another viewer went into a Fidelity Investments office to deposit retirement funds for his company and, after a minute or two, realized that CNBC had been replaced by HGTV. He couldn't believe it, admitted to the rep that he had a poor understanding of the retail mindset, and asked what had happened. The rep said the manager had decided the financial news was making people anxious and they were trying to create a calm environment for their clients. "One wonders if Fidelity is actually capable of front-running an increase in volatility." Fleck's answer: "Well, almost anything is an upgrade over bubble vision, but I get your point."
**On Bitcoin versus gold:** A viewer wrote: "No question, but just musing and seeing if my thinking is credible. The mania in cryptocurrencies has me thinking this might be a generational thing. Older people would tend to gravitate toward precious metals, while younger people are more comfortable with tech and therefore tend to gravitate toward things like Bitcoin. Also, when precious metals rose in 2009 to 2011, maybe part of the crowd has now shifted to cryptocurrencies from metals in order to protect themselves. What is very apparent is that this is a dangerous time for regular currency and equities, with the tax plan essentially passing. We could be looking at a depression in the future." Fleck's answer: "You are way overthinking it. This is mostly about momentum and wild speculation caused by central banks, and nothing as cosmic as a millennial preference for Bitcoin over gold. Bitcoin is the fantasy; gold is gold."
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