저자: Daniel · 외국인
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팔란티어 주가가 60% 이상 하락했지만 여전히 고평가(선행매출 12~13배)라고 진단. 정부 부문 성장 둔화와 2022년 1분기 약한 가이던스(약 30% 미만)가 우려 요인. 다만 정부·상업 고객 기반과 높은 매출총이익률(80%)은 긍정적. 가이던스 상향/비GAAP 이익 흑자 전환 등 실적 확인 전까지 매수 보류 입장이며, 장기 사이클 성장 가능성은 열어둠.
다듬은 글
palantir stock pltr stock is down over 60 investors saying what is going on regular viewers do know however that i have covered palantir several times one video talked about their value proposition and how i thought they were unrivaled more recent videos talking about how i thought the valuation was a bit frothy even though it's in the 20s then the high teens and i said you know what hold on i'll wait for a lower price maybe low teens now that it's just above 10 bucks a share i'm scratching my chin saying huh is this now the time to be buying palantir let's review their most recent quarterly results to say hey let's let's think about their valuation what's the upside down side from here what assumptions do you have to make to have an attractive return over time this is your first time tuning in my name is daniel and you're watching unrivaled investing this is a no hype mission focused channel trying to find you exceptional companies and unrivaled investments in full disclosure this is not financial advice and at the time of this video publication i did not yet own stock in palantir maybe that will change in the future pltr is the ticker and so once again a couple of videos on palantir already one of which was solely dedicated to the valuation and the overhang in dilution the overhang in terms of the amount of shares palantir actually has versus what most people think and that's actually a lot more than people think so when you see the share count that i use later on in this video check out this video to understand it in proper detail because a lot of people aren't using the right figure for thinking about what is actually the market cap the actual value of palantir based on the shares outstanding as i've also done several videos effectively calling out yes they're delivering really strong results but in order to get a fantastic return you're going to need to get even faster growth and acceleration in their business given the fact they have such a lofty valuation so i said it did warrant some caution but you know looking at volunteer down over sixty percent the reality is palantir still provides the software that continues to enable and protect critical functions in society so it's not like this business you know is going out of business they're doing you know critical things assisting the f the faa with minimizing air travel disruptions maximizing passenger safety dealing with things like russian money laundering operation you know identifying a 200 billion dollar 200 billion dollar money laundering operation you know vaccine program roll out things like this these are critical functions for society and they and their software continue to post top-notch results 34 revenue growth in the fourth quarter and 80 gross margins very attractive so if they're posting strong results why is their stock price falling apart over 60 it's important to have some context here so one while commercial growth and you should think about their business really as two different buckets commercial and government their commercial business accelerated throughout the year you can see from 19 growth to 47 growth and is posting strong results 200 increase in the number of customers that they have and 113 net dollar retention so their customer cohort even without adding any new customers still would have increased by 13 year-over-year this segment while doing really well and seeing a nice nice acceleration still only represents around 40 of their business the majority of their business is tied to government spending this segment is surprisingly growing even faster than the commercial business during first during fiscal 21 with around 47 growth versus 33 for commercial and continues to have a very strong customer retention rate which is around 146 percent just think about that so their existing customer cohort not even adding any new customers still grew 46 47 percent the challenge is that the more dependent you are with government contracts the tougher it is to maintain hyper growth and the fourth quarter 2021 saw significant deceleration in their growth rate from 76 earlier in the year to 26 and this is the broader challenge with this business you can see their customer count for their government segment you know it's from 90 um to 90 year-over-year so no change in customer accounts this is entirely dependent on those different government customers effectively spending more and that is really challenging no new customer ads versus you see something like commercial where they're able to grow their customer account by 200 and so this means that governments which are facing you know increasingly large deficits and challenge you know managing their budgets they're going to have to a lot more and more to palantir over time in order to get a faster growth rate over time and so that is sort of a challenge that folks will need to consider you know when you're saying oh okay this means palantir is going to be having to get into a bunch of arguably budgetary knife fights to make sure they're getting their share of the pie in order to keep growing arguably another key component of why the stock sold off fairly recently is their outlook for 2022.
it is slightly weaker than wall street expected as they're guiding to slightly under 30 growth for the first quarter 2022 which is also below management's long-term revenue growth rate of 30 plus through 2025. so this does you know 443 is just shy of 30 so it does get investors sort of concerned like hey you know that means you're going to have to re-accelerate this business or at least keep it at that rate in the quarters ahead so that is something just to be mindful of okay so what about the valuation now the stock's down so much down over 60 and it is at that very low teens which is where i was interested in reviewing first quick plug where if you're interested in joining a community of fellow investors looking to learn and find exceptional companies companies for both good and bad times we have an exclusive community on discord you can sign up at unrivaledinvesting.com click join the journey i also call out potential multibaggers and share my own personal portfolio for those interested once again that's unrivaledinvesting.com click join the journey and if you enjoy videos like this please make a point of hitting that thumbs up hit that subscribe button so thinking about valuation let's let's dive a little bit deeper in terms of you know sizing up the situation so management continues to profile this ridiculous adjusted free cash flow margin metric saying hey we have tremendous free cash flow which the reality is it's only positive because of significant stock based compensation slash slash dilution and so they're like oh look how fast we're growing and look at look at our free cash flow it's just so much better than most of the other cohorts out there and i'm like that's i don't like using a metric where it's adding back such a huge amount of stock-based compensation you know every year but i am very glad to see management talking about getting to gaap profitability getting to real profitability over time and they even called it out very specifically on the conference call saying how do you actually run the company so it's profitable someday on a gap basis not stripping out comp and that is also within eyesight so that is a very positive point that management is thinking about this and arguably it's in eyesight maybe that's you know within a year or two maybe we'll see you know currently they're significant significantly unprofitable on a gap basis and those are our goals for palantir because same reason we have no debt same reason we have 2.3 billion on our balance sheet this is a company built for bad times bad times mean strong finances internally and that means at some point you have to be gap profitable this gets to a point that actually really gets me very interested in palantir i have another company that i sort of think like that from my own personal portfolio but i'd consider for palantir as well which is that if there were ever let's say a devastating cyber attack on a western government maybe the us and debilitating type attack who would get it would be terrible and i i you know i pray something like that never happens if something like that does happen though who would get that 10 billion dollar contract when you know the dust settles and i'd argue it would be a company like palantir and some of the others that i you know i've called out exclusively to journey uh unrivaled investing journey subscribers and so you know i'm looking at this and saying there is that sort of anti-fragile aspect to palantir that does you know get me interested in that it does have this sort of insurance optionality to it in that you know as management calls out they are a company made for bad times so if stressors happen they should be there to benefit from it or to to capitalize on the opportunity that creates and it's it's not like taking advantage i'd argue it's saying hey there's a reason why this hack went through there's a reason why the system's failing you need better systems and that's ideally what palantir would step in to fix and provide so looking at the current valuation now that it's just above 10 a share i did a prior video thinking about their share count so check out that video so still around 26 billion valuation so i'm looking at this palantir likely has an unrivaled product discussed once again in prior videos and a long runway for future growth it also has some of the key features that are not currently favored in this market and that's arguably part of the reason why in addition to the you know factors i already mentioned like you know sort of having weak first quarter 2022 guidance and a slowdown in their government business which is you know the unfactor the unfavorable factors right now is that unprofitable business and a lofty valuation you know yes the valuation is down significant in the last few months but it still is 12 to 13 times forward sales this is not i'd argue cheap by any metric so while i'm assuming future profitability of around 30 profit margins and around 30 growth in the years ahead once again that's around the 30 growth is around what management has penciled out depending on the end valuation you know what sort of end profit multiple you want to assume five years out it gets to around break even to let's say over 100 upside over the next five years of course once again this is a hypothetical framework palantir stock can go significantly above and below what i'm penciling out a lot depends on their execution you know can they actually deliver these growth rates can they actually deliver profitability and sentiment what's the market you know assign a company like this in order to be a mega bull you know where you're saying hey i think it has well beyond 100 upside i think you need to believe that the business growth accelerates from here from let's say above let's say 35 growth rate in the years ahead or their end profitability is much greater than let's say 30 profit margins or maybe a greater than a 30 times end multiple five years from now 30 times earnings multiple five years from now you know i i would say there's a lot of folks you know on youtube that like to say palunder to the moon i'm all in i'm making these big purchases and the stock's down 60 and so you know i think it's important to sort of pull back any sort of just raw animal spirits and say yeah yeah mega bull it's it's super cheap and like actually think about the valuation actually think about what they're doing what are their actual results doing and say like is 12 to 13 times forward sales actually that cheap and do i actually think their business is going to accelerate let's say to 34 35 percent plus growth in the years ahead what data points am i seeing that gets me there when i'm seeing their government business rapidly decelerate in terms of their growth rate you know what gives me confidence that that business is going to re-accelerate so questions like that so i'm looking at this and i you know i i unders i i think i understand the setup i think i understand why the stocks down so much so so significantly in short order but i'm still not quite yet ready to pull the trigger and so i'd love to hear your thoughts we do have an exclusive channel dedicated to palantir at the unrivaled investing journey discord server so if you're interested in joining that you could you know participate in the conversation there but if you have some thoughts that you want to post below this youtube channel effectively why you think this business can let's say re-accelerate their revenue growth in the years ahead to let's say 35 to 40 and i think at that growth rate you're probably looking at a better return than potentially a hundred percent upside that's at least what what the math would dictate unless you you know you say oh then multiples lower so i'd i'd love to hear the mega bull case for why you think it'll be let's say 35 40 40 plus growth why you'll see that re-acceleration and for the mega bears out there that say daniel no this business is going to decelerate over time alex carp's a little bit of a loony you know it's not unrivaled i'd love to hear that take as well in the comments anywho i hope this video has been helpful for you if it has please make a point of hitting that thumbs up and hit that subscribe button thanks so much for tuning in
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