저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 Bostic이 올해 금리인하를 1회로 낮추고 시점도 늦춰질 것이라 밝힘. 발표자는 역사적으로 급격한 금리인하는 경기침체 때만 나타나며 금리가 장기간 높게 유지될 것이라 주장. 고금리 기간 자산 취득은 어려워지고 부의 격차가 확대될 수 있어 저축·소득 증대·분할 매수를 권고. 단기 매매 포지션은 없다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here in this video I'd like to discuss a warning that Raphael Bostic of the Federal Reserve just provided and it's something that let's just say even Mr bosk was caught blindsided by take a look at this this is a little bit of background on Mr bosk back in January of 2022 in a Wall Street Pro Central Banking piece The Wall Street Journal broke down that Mr bosk added that he expects some moderation in price pressures noting as we move further into the year we'll start seeing some of those inflationary pressures baate which will allow us to not be so dramatic in our policy actions right but that's exactly the opposite of what happened instead in 2022 because of the persistence and the extremeness of inflation we actually saw interest rates rise at the fastest level that we have seen since the 1980s and we rose from a 0% level all the way to 4% in the span of just 9 months 400 basis points in the span of 9 months is one of the fastest rates we've actually seen uh interest rates the rate of the rates go up in history it's pretty remarkable there were only brief periods in the 1980s where we brief briefly skyrocketed past that sort of rate of an increase but that was also followed by rapid Cuts in the early 80s so Mr bosk also in uh the 20121 2022 cycle suggested the following at the beginning of the pandemic when we we asked Business Leaders how long do they think this was last they told me five or 6 months and we'd be good now we're at the beginning of 2 years in and we're still not good it's just going to take longer than I'd like of course I'd love this to be done now but we've got to have to show some patience and some perseverance everything is just taking longer than I would have expected going in okay so we've seen a bosstick go into to the pandemic thinking okay we'll have some inflation it'll be transitory that was some of the information that even Joe Biden echoed on national TV hey we'll have a bump on inflation will come down a lot of that is informed by his economists well everyone was wrong in fact inflation wasn't just a little bump it was a massive explosion of inflation now of course inflation has come down substantially since then but this mindset of Bostic suggesting everything's just going to take longer to normalize it's slightly problematic and there's a second reason why it's slightly problem IC that we need to set some context for so first I wanted to give you a little background on Bostic then I want to give you a little background on the FED then I want to reveal to you what Bostic just said and what the early warning is so stay tuned for that but first this second bit of fact building notice that when the Federal Reserve Cuts rates it is extremely rare that rates are cut slowly the only time we can really point to rates being cut slowly was right here in 95 where we kind of stabilized around five for about 3 years we started cutting rates in April of 95 and by about August of 98 that's when we saw a little bit more of a reduction in rates of course that unfortunately culminated in the dot recession rates actually started Rising again before we got below 4 1.2% so there wasn't actually a lot of a return to Norm in fact it's very rare that we see sort of a large decline in rates uh without a recession we did have a period of time in the mid 80s where we did see that I mean we went from maybe this normalized level over here around 8 1.2% down to about 5 and 1 half% but certainly nowhere near recessionary kind of levels of cuts usually rapid Cuts come from recession rapid Cuts rapid Cuts rapid Cuts rapid Cuts rapid Cuts rapid Cuts as you can see they're almost always aligned with the gray bars a recession same thing over here in the early 90s rapid cuts.com rapid cuts the financial crisis rapid cuts and of course covid rapid Cuts so usually reducing the policy rate is a tool that can be fine-tuned like it was over here in the mid 90s or in the mid 80s maybe even you could say the 77 era but it either culminates in a large rise in interest rates or a recession where interest rates plummet so the history of the FED tells us that usually even if we start start seeing rates come down they're probably not going to plummet unless we get a recession if anything if there is no recession they're actually more likely to go up again look at that the times we've had no recession here rates came down they went up again rates came down after the recession went up again rates came down went up again before the recession down went up again notice you tend to see rates go up before you see them them go down in the absence of a recession so that's important to know as well as Bostic suggesting that more time is really needed to get through what the pandemic has done everything is taking a lot longer I agree with this by the way I'm going to give you my anecdote and I want to give you the news on what bosk just said patience is so wildly understated in today's economy because I feel like we're all still used to what happened in the pandemic there was a panic for 30 days massive trillions of dollars of stimulus money came in and we had a v-shaped recovery we had the Larry cudow v-shaped recovery everything was so fast we went from shut down the world everything's a disaster shut down flights shut down vacation shut down everything to how fast can we reopen how fast can we reinvest in all these businesses how fast can we get back to normal which is good we want things to go back to normal but this interest rate path of the Fed might be something that we desire to go back to normal very quickly and then we could argue of course what normal is but we might have to be much more patient for quick tangent what is normal well some people would say that the long-term normal is actually arrayed around 5% and what they do is they try to draw an average here uh and they basically argue well you know if we draw a bar across this the average long-term rate should probably be somewhere in this gray bar somewhere on 5% but that's using the mid 80s in the average I actually think that's disappropriate it's inappropriate I think the longer run trend of inflation is down thanks to the nature of capitalism but in the shorter term it's probably going to take a lot longer for those longer 10year 20 30-year Trends to actually show up again so I don't think we're ready for massive Cuts you know within this year or maybe even next year or maybe even the year after that we might not actually see the rates that we used to see until the early 2030s which is kind of scared because I feel like we're just in the early 2020s now so that's a decade away Jack is 8 he'll be 18 and he can leave the house before rates might be back to normal which is really weird to think about but what did Bostic just tell us I'm going to read it to you and I'm going to add some commentary here I want to be clear that right now I don't have any short-term trades going so my goal is just to provide unbiased information and I I understand that I went into this cycle thinking inflation was going to fall a lot faster than it did and I recognize that was wrong everything is taking a lot longer to decline I do think wholly believe that in the very long term the neutral rate of interest will be lower long-term interest rates will be lower than they've ever been before and it's not actually going to help everybody it's actually going to be bad news it's going to widen the wealth Gap even more those people who are exposed to investing in real estate or maybe even real estate startups or those of you who are 10:31 into uh what we're doing where you can 1031 essentially into a real estate security which is wild that you can do that tax defer email us at IR house.com if you have questions on that those are a very exciting things for people who have money but they're not useful for people who don't have money and I think in the long-term very low interest rates are going to widen the wealth Gap and high interest rates right now are going to make it very difficult to start buying assets so you're kind of screwed now and you're screwed then when interest rates come down everybody else has already bought up the assets and asset prices will be too expensive when interest rates are high you're suffering with too much debt it's really really challenging to get on the ride of building your wealth right now it is devastating because it's going to worsen the wealth Gap so we'll talk practically maybe about what to do in just a moment but first what did bosk just tell us Federal Reserve Bank bosk president uh of the bank president of Atlanta bosic says he now projects just one interest rate cut this year adding that a reduction will likely happen in in the year uh will likely happen later in the year than he previously expected so in other words he thinks we're only going to get one rate cut and it's going to come late in the year that could be September that could be November that could be December Bost previously said that it would be appropriate for the FED to lower rates twice in 2024 with the first of those rate Cuts likely coming in the summer it was a close call we will have to see how the data comes in over the next several weeks the Atlanta Fed chair said that he is less confident on the tra C of inflation than he was in December noting that some troubling things underneath the headline figures are occurring he pointed specifically to the breadth of some items in the consumer basket that are rising at an elevated level the key gauge of underlying inflation topped expectations for a second month in February and the fed's preferred inflation data relas expected to be released next week is anticipated to show still elevated pricing levels what they're referring to is the pce PC is expected to come in uh next week we'll be covering that live of course on the uh stock market open live stream and right now we're looking at a core pce deflator month over month of3 and a headline month over month of 0.4 both of those still higher than the feds projected given that3 on a month-over-month core is 3.6% of inflationary pressure on an annualized basis and 04 is 4.8% on a headline level it's not great fed officials held interest rates steady for a fifth consecutive okay we know this is a little bit of a background here he mentions the economy continues to deliver surprises and it continues to be more resilient and more energized than I had forecasted or projected Bostic said so as a consequence I sort of recalibrated when I think it's appropriate to move given that the economy is doing well that gives us space for patience he said and we should just be patient well so now we need to reconcile this and then I want to talk about like what what do you do so how do you reconcile well first of all remember the Federal Reserve historically unless we argue this time is different history tells us the Federal Reserve has a bias to move interest rates up absent a recession not down you really only get a rapid down in a recession or maybe this soft Landing of the mid 90s but it wasn't much of a down there's a reason for that and it has to do with the fact that rapid rate Cuts usually only occur as sort of an emergency lever when there's p Panic they pulled the lever of emergency rate cuts and plummet interest rates slight reductions in interest rate little adjustments like we saw in the mid uh 80s and the mid 90s those really aren't going to bring rates back to where they were so practically what does this mean well while the FED will re-calibrate and try to tell us everything is just fine even though prices are going to stay higher prices aren't going to come down inflation will slowly moderate their goal is to keep the economy going we have to live with this reality for probably much longer than we thought it's a reality of much higher rates for a lot longer and so there are some benefits and some pains that come with that one of the pains that comes with that is it makes it harder to acquire assets it makes stocks and real estate more expensive to get into we always talk in my courses on building your wealth link down below we always talk about how it's important to own assets and businesses but starting a business getting a real estate loan uh getting into stocks is harder when things are more expensive so what is usually Theo during a higher interest rate period Well usually the mo is you work really hard you make more money at your job you utilize High savings rates and you do your best to try to get into assets or you save as much as possible so that way when the FED actually pulls the lever again whenever that will be you have cash to deploy at the time that might be best now timing the market is very difficult so it's usually not for everyone and this is why I'm a big fan of as you are capable average into real estate especially single family real estate the way I talk about get yourself a wedge deal it's what we do with house Haack the wedge insulates you even if the market Falls 20% you're insulated if you get a 20% wedge on a good deal so that's why it's so important to insulate yourself my longer term concern though is that these higher rates will actually just make a lot of people wait to buy assets at all they won't consider the wedge they'll just wait to buy assets and then as rates fall asset prices potentially just go up even more see I'm not saying in a recession prices will be lower rates might be lower doesn't necessarily mean nominal prices might be lower because sure you might be able to go buy a house at a 1 or 2% 30-year mortgage R but if we have mortgage rates that low our home pric is going to be even more unaffordable or if homes become less affordable is that only because we have lots a lot of joblessness and then if we have a lot of joblessness that could include us which means now we can't qualify for a loan anyway even though the rates are cheaper so everybody is kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place and so we have to look at this new reality which is rates are probably going to stay high for the rest of the decade and if rates stay high for the rest of the decade you know over 3 4% I understand again people think that's the long-term average anyway I don't think so but we could debate about that in a different video I think the long-term trend is actually lower than where we were before the pandemic but that's just my opinion uh but again I think by the time we get there asset prices will be even more unattainable so I'm not here saying YOLO all in I'm saying do whatever we can in a mass basis too build businesses build your income work hard get into good deals good assets whether those are good deals on businesses Partnerships uh stocks that are going down in value when there's an opportunity to buy them but be careful stocks obviously should just be one portion of your portfolio or real estate and buying wedge deals I think that's the opportunity but uh unfortunately betting on rates plummeting anytime soon I don't I don't think that's in the near-term future unless there's some form of crazy Black Swan event and I don't see it just yet but then again that's the nature of a Black Swan anyway hopefully this is somewhat insightful if you found it useful consider sharing it good luck everybody if you like what I share make sure to subscribe to the channel share the video and we'll see you soon goodbye
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