저자: JeremyGrantham—제목기준,영상내직접발언자는자막상내레이션형식이라미상처리가능 · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜덤은 현재를 3시그마급 슈퍼버블 구간으로 보며 1929·2000년과 유사한 괴리(러셀2000이 강세장 때 기대되는 약 10% 상승에 못 미침)를 지적한다. 버블은 수개월 내 급격히 붕괴할 수 있다고 경고한다. 글로벌 주택가격은 미국 20% 상승 등 과열이며 금리 인하가 자산가에게만 혜택을 준다고 비판한다. 인플레이션이 다시 주목받고 있으며 원자재(석유·니켈·구리) 공급 한계와 식량가격 상승이 예상된다. 중국 출생아 급감 등으로 노동력 부족도 우려된다. 전체적으로 시장 붕괴 가능성을 강하게 경고하는 내용이다.
다듬은 글
Jeremy Grantham is a renowned British investor co-founder and chief investment strategist of Grantham Mayo van otter BL GMO a boston-based asset management firm Grandam has built a reputation for his cautious stance on the market especially when it comes to predicting Bubbles and crashes in this video we are going to delve into his bold prediction of a severe market crash which he believes will be the largest Super Bubble Burst since 1929 why does Jeremy Grantham believe were on the verge of this massive collapse let's break down his theories and predictions in a recent video Grantham explained that history has shown us that when the market reaches a level of irrationality it tends to implode within a few months rather than stretching the collapse over years according to Grantham this is exactly how the great bubbles have burst in the past he pointed to 1929 as the most glaring example during that time the Blue Chip stocks and the SNP 500 remained strong until the very end but the real leaders of the market the stocks that had previously been performing the best collapsed marking the beginning of the Great Depression Grantham also highlighted a concerning Divergence within the market specifically he pointed to the Russell 2000 a stock index that represents smaller companies which failed to follow the typical rise seen in a bull market normally the market would see about a 10% increase during a bull market but it didn't even come close to that this time according to Grantham such a massive Divergence has only been seen during the super bubbles of 1929 and 2000 the two most significant Market crashes in modern history Grantham warned that these super bubbles are dangerous they can destroy wealth and decimate portfolios he claims that we entered into a three sigma territory otherwise known as superbubble territory just a few months ago a Super Bubble refers to a massive unsustainable expansion in asset prices that has the potential to burst dramatically Grantham warns that these super bubbles can obliterate investors as they did in the past to add to the gravity of the situation Grandam points out that we are also experiencing bubbles in other areas including the real estate market last year the US housing market reached new highs with prices increasing by 20% despite inflation being much lower he observed that this trend was not isolated to the US but was a global Phenomenon with other countries such as Canada Australia and even major cities like London and Paris seeing similar patterns this kind of worldwide real estate price inflation could lead to significant financial suffering on a global scale Grantham warned Grantham also shared his thoughts on inflation something he had not written about in recent years he had previously ignored inflation in his quarterly letters as he didn't think it was a major concern however with recent Trends in mind he now believes inflation is back on the radar according to Grantham inflation is unlikely to return with the Vengeance it saw in the 1970s or 1980s but it will still be a persistent feature of the economic landscape moving forward he predicts that inflation will be part of the scene in the second half of the 21st century just as it was for much of the 20th century one of grantham's most notable statements was a prophecy like warning about the state of our planet and its resources he argued that the world is running out of cheap natural resources such as oil nickel and copper as we begin to reach the limits of these finite resources we will face more bottlenecks shortages and price spikes Grantham stated that the UN food price index has already reached alarming levels which signals that the challenges of producing food are only going to worsen this change in resource availability will be compounded by severe droughts and Rising temperatures leading to economic instability Grantham emphasized that Commodities tend to perform well during periods of inflation as inflation rises in the future the demand for Commodities could soar leading to price hikes in essential Goods like food and energy this scenario could cause further Financial strain especially for the global middle class on the topic of Labor Grantham raised concerns about plummeting fertility rates which she believes are a sign that we are running out of Labor China for example has seen a dramatic drop in the number of births with just a million babies born last year compared to the higher numbers of seven or eight years ago grant them warned that this demographic trend would have serious consequences for the workforce especially as the cohort of young adults entering the job market becomes smaller this trend is not limited to China many developed nations are facing similar challenges which could have serious implications for Global economies Grantham also took aim at the Federal Reserve arguing that they have been oblivious to the pain that comes with the bursting of a bubble he pointed out how during the green spin era the FED helped to fuel the tech pule by encouraging optimism about the internet's impact on productivity however Grantham argues productivity has gradually declined since then and when the tech Bubble Burst it was brutal Grantham believes the FED didn't learn from this experience and instead encourag the housing bubble By ignoring its existence even though it was a three sigma event that had never happened in the US before he says the federal reserve's policies of excessively low interest rates were an attempt to prevent Market crashes But ultimately only serve to exacerbate the crisis Grantham posed a critical question who benefits When interest rates are pushed into negative territory the answer according to him is the wealthiest individuals those who own the majority of assets the top 1% of the population controls 99% of assets and when interest rates are low these individuals benefit the most while the bottom 50% continue to struggle Grantham pointed out that during the past 2 years the top 0.1% saw their wealth double while the bottom half of the population did not experience the same Financial growth to summarize grantham's Viewpoint we are in the midst of an unsustainable bubble and the risk associated with it are immense if you've been following his predictions you know that grandthum has been warning about Market crashes for years and it appears that the signs are finally coming to fruition whether or not you agree with his Outlook it's clear that the global economy is facing significant challenges in the years ahead grantham's analysis of the current economic situation offers a stark warning about the future he urges us to recognize the signs of a bubble and act accordingly before it bursts while this forecast may seem pessimistic there's no doubt that history has shown us time and time again that market bubbles can lead to disastrous consequences if they are left unchecked do you agree with grantham's Outlook on the economy do you think we're on the brink of another Major Market collapse leave your thoughts in the comments section below before you go don't forget to hit the like button if you found this video insightful and make sure to subscribe for more content on the global economy market predictions and Financial strategies thank you for watching and we look forward to seeing you in our next video
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