저자: Daniel · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 발표자는 버크셔 해서웨이(BRK.B)를 장기적으로 매력적인 고확신 투자 대상으로 보며, 향후 5년 연 6~20%대 수익을 기대한다. 내부자 매수: 그렉 에이블이 약 6,800만 달러를 매입했으며, 이는 연봉 대비 매우 큰 금액이다. 그는 자회사 매각 대금 8.7억 달러를 받은 상태라 자금 여력도 있다. 발표자는 이를 고확신 베팅 신호로 해석한다. 버핏의 자사주 매입: 버핏이 B주 약 280달러 수준에서 수십억 달러 규모로 자사주를 사들였으며, 이는 주가가 내재가치 이하라는 신호로 본다. 밸류에이션: 주가순자산비율은 최근 10년과 비슷한 1.3~1.4배 수준이다. 발표자는 장부가치보다 수익성 기준으로 평가하는 것을 선호한다. 이익 구조: 보험(자동차 보험은 2022년 적자 우려), 철도(BNSF), 에너지, 제조, 유통 등 자회사 세전이익은 상반기 약 180억 달러다. 투자 포트폴리오는 상반기 약 700억 달러 평가손실을 기록했다. 포트폴리오 집중도: 애플 약 40%, 뱅크오브아메리카 약 10%, 에너지 관련 약 15%로 집중되어 있다. 발표자는 애플 주가의 고평가에 우려를 표한다. 금리 효과: 현금성 자산 1,000억 달러 이상에 대한 이자 수익이 과거 약 5억 달러에서 약 34억 달러로 늘었다고 언급한다. 종합 수익 추정: 투자 포트폴리오 연 약 200억 달러, 본업과 이자 수익 합산 약 300억 달러로 보고, 정상화 이익을 약 500억 달러로 가정한다. 현재 시가총액 약 6,170억 달러 대비 낮은 이익 배수다. 유기적 성장률 6~10%와 잉여현금흐름 활용을 감안하면 향후 5년 연 약 20%대 수익도 가능하다고 본다. 다만 이는 가정에 기반한 모형이며, 포트폴리오 실적에 따라 달라질 수 있다. 발표자 본인은 해당 주식을 보유하고 있지 않지만, 내부자 매수의 논리는 이해한다고 밝힌다. 향후 5~10년간 S&P500을 상회할 가능성이 높다고 본다.
다듬은 글
Hi, this is Daniel. You are watching " Unbeatable Investments". Recently, one of Berkshire Hathway's top insiders made a very large, high- conviction bet on Berkshire Hathway stock by purchasing Berkshire Hathway stock for his own account. What does this potentially mean for you? Is now a good time to buy Berkshire Hathway shares?
You know, for a lot of people last year was a difficult, challenging investment environment. So people are looking for potentially safe stocks that still have the potential to make returns over time. So does Bergkshire fit this profile? Let's talk more about Bergkshire Hathaway . Who is an insider and what do I think about the stock in the future?
Thinking about the evaluation system. So, the insider who bought was Greg Ael. He bought $68 million worth of Berkshire Hathway stock. Now he's going to be co- CEO of Berkshire Hathway, which runs non- insurance operations, and he was buying Class A shares for about $46,000 per A share. That's equivalent to about $270 per B share.
And so, you know, it's interesting to watch him make such a significant purchase. You know, about $68 million, about $270 per share B. So BRKB versus BRKA, which was trading at about $46,000 per share. Now, for context, you know, you might be thinking, well, wait a second. How much does it cost? How big is this purchase compared to, say, his income?
And over the past 3 years, he has earned about $19 million . So compared to his income, this is a very significant purchase, over about three and a half years. But maybe, you know, he's working because he likes the Berkshire play, because he actually recently sold his minority stake in Berkshire Hathway Energy back to Berkshire Hathway for $870 million .
So he has no shortage of cash. Um, but it's still his way of saying, "Okay, I'm selling this business that I, you know, helped grow to Berkshire Hathway, this 1% stake that they didn't own, selling it for hundreds of millions of dollars." But I think that's actually him, what he does, based on these actions.
He seems to be saying, "I really think Bergkshire is a high- conviction bet." He's not putting all that money in, but he's putting, you know, 68 60, you know, a significant amount of money into Bergkshire Hathway, you know, like he's saying it's a bet on conviction. And I'm curious to see if he buys more over time.
It's interesting to see that he's also buying at a discount to Warren Buffett, who was buying back literally billions of dollars worth of stock at about $280 per B share, about $430,000 per A share, at the end of the fourth quarter of last year. So, significant purchases, ahem, from Buffett to buy back shares.
So Buffett is effectively saying, “Hey, this is a value that I think is good. This is below the fair value of the shares, which are currently priced below this. So this should interest investors. You know, if you have one of the greatest investors in the world, like Warren Buffett, who says, "Hey, I think my stock is cheap here, and then it drops lower here, and then you also see insiders buying lower there." That's a lot of favorable data that suggests Berkshire Hathway could have significant growth potential from here, and it's also entirely possible that they're very fairly valued .
If you look at it from a price- to-book value perspective, you can see that they are trading about the same as they have been for the past decade. Buffett went from saying, "Hey, I'd buy at 1.1 of book value to 1.2," to saying, "Hey , I'll buy below intrinsic value ." “And so it seems like right now, about 1.3 to 1.4 times is probably roughly in line with book value.
Personally, instead of using book value as a metric, I look at Berkshire Hathway's potential profitability and view it as a multiplier, like a business. So we'll talk about this profitability in a second. So what do you think about how much Bergshire could earn over time? Well, you have so many different business drivers.
You have, you know, their various insurance operations, and so far in 2022, their auto insurance has been underperforming , you know, generating significant losses because the driving behavior after the DOT has been just terrible. And so you saw significant losses, historically generating, you know, over $3 billion in profit or could have.
Um, and you see, you know, what their various insurance operations generate. You have investment income, which consists of dividends plus interest on their substantial cash portfolio. Then they have Burlington Northern Santa Fe, one of the largest rail systems in the US. You We have Bergkshire Hathway Electricity.
There are production segments. Manufacturing is one of the largest components. There is MLAN, it is transportation, services and retail. So in total, about 18 billion in pre-tax profit was generated in the first half of the year. This is a very significant component. The next key component is their investment portfolio, which is known to have lost $70 billion in value during the first half of 2022 .
So when you think about valuing Bergkshire, you want to look at the profitability of the underlying business, and the next component is the portfolio. When you think about the portfolio, it's currently about $300 billion in various stocks and then about $125 billion in cash and equivalent fixed- maturity securities.
So think about it: what are you getting for your money and what can their stock portfolio do over time? This is what drives this second component. Okay, what do I think about Berkshire Hathaway stock in this regard? Where do I think they are going? First, if you're looking to...Take control of your investing journey , consider the unbeatable investing.com for excit to annual subscribers.
And when you think about these two different components – their portfolio and their underlying operations, which is a $300 billion portfolio of stocks : if you think that management can deliver, if you think that Buffett and his, you know, lieutenants, uh, Ted Co or Todd Commes and Ted Wesler, can generate attractive returns over time, you know, I'm projecting 5% to 7% after tax.
Maybe that's better. Still, it's difficult to truly manage a portfolio of several hundred billion dollars, most of which is concentrated in just a few names. I mean, Apple has about 40% of that portfolio. Bank of America–10% . You also have, let's say, 15 % in oil bets, which include, you know , CV, uh, you know, Chevron and other positions.
And so you... Looking at this , saying, "Hey, a fairly concentrated portfolio, like a lot of top investors do ." And can it generate, say, 5 to 7% after taxes over time? If so, if you think they can, then you're probably talking about potentially 20 billion in profits from their investment portfolio over time as its value increases.
Personally, I have some, you know, skeptical, I'm a little skeptical about where Apple is going to go over the next few years, partly because, you know, the valuation has gone up quite a bit. However, there are significant buy-ins. We'll see. But this is about 40% of their portfolio. So this could be a headwind for them in the coming years unless they dramatically, say, accelerate revenue growth or the valuation comes down.
If this happens, it could be a challenge for part of the portfolio. But if you think long term, maybe growth of 5 to 7% after taxes. We'll see. And then let's look at the next key component, which is practically their non-investment operations. Um, and you see, you know, or excuse me, their non-investment portfolio, and you see about 30 billion of returns, at least it was 32 billion before tax in 2021, but that includes about 5.6 billion of their investable free capital in terms of investment income.
Now it's mostly dividends, really very little of their cash. And so they, you know, I often talk about wanting to invest in things that benefit the environment. And so in an environment of rising interest rates, it's beneficial to Berkshire in the sense that they have over $100 billion in cash. Now they will get a higher return from this .
In previous years, this generated about 500 million percent of their sizable cash portfolio. Now it can generate 3.4 billion. So when I think about the profitability of the business, not to mention the stock portfolio, I think you could say something like $30.30 billion after tax, if you factor in the fact that they're benefiting from higher interest rates.
And overall, you know, they own a bunch of unbeatable businesses that have the potential for steady profit growth over time. And you saw that growth over time as they went from 39 to 32. You can see mid- single digit growth , maybe even more for this business over time. So, I'm allocating about 30 billion of after-tax profit for this, you know, for these two.
So when you think about the combination of their portfolio, which can grow, say, $20 billion a year, and their core business and the profits from it, you know, generating about 30, so 20-30, about 50 billion, plus or minus, of profit, normalized profit for Berkshire Hathaway; and so I use that as a starting point in thinking about what, where I think Bergshire goes from here, and that's, I think, one of the reasons why Warren Buffett is buying or has bought back shares at even higher prices.
Greg Ael is making this bet with high conviction, you know, at 50 if you generate, say, $50 billion and the current market cap is 617 billion, which you know is based on Bergkshire B shares at 280, which assumes a low 10-15 year earnings multiple. So this adds very little to Bergkshire Hathway's quality and potential growth in the years ahead.
I mean, if you have organic growth of, say, 6 to 10% over the next few years, um, and it stays at a similar multiple, um, you know, or something like that, or maybe some kind of multiplier improvement to 14 or 16 times, you know, then you can potentially expect 100% growth over the next 5 years, depending on the organic growth of their business.
And then you factor in, well, wait a second, they're still generating significant amounts of cash that they can use to either accelerate their growth or buy back shares. So I'm assuming organic growth is 6-10%. That is, without purchases. Looking at their cash flows, you know that maybe it's $20-30 billion of actual free cash flow that's being generated relative to their $600 billion market cap.
And this is an additional, say , 4-5% per year, which can be brought to shareholders either through acquisition or redemption. This is how I calculate a potentially high single-digit return over the next 5 years, maybe even 10-15%, maybe around 20% annual return over the next 5 years. Now keep in mind that this is a hypothetical valuation system for Bergkshire Hathway.
A lot depends on execution. And if their stock portfolio, let's say, comes under pressure, which is one of my concerns about Apple as one of the top holdings, then obviously the stock price is not going to be as good. It all depends on the execution. If they really perform well, I wouldn't be surprised if the stock price is much better than I am.
pencil . But if things aren't so good, the stock price could fall below normal. That's why this is a hypothetical model. But overall, I'm looking at Birkshire Hathaway. I think this applies to many investments in the market. You have cash flow. You benefit from that environment, they can deploy capital when there are good deals, and that's what I want to see.
I want to see these anti-fragile companies that can take advantage of bargains in difficult conditions. So I like, you know, where Bergkshire Hathaway is. I don't personally own it, but I can definitely see why Greg Ael bought it. You know, something like he's saying, "Hey, over time this is definitely going to produce more returns than cash .
There's a good chance, and I personally suspect, that this will outperform the S&P 500 over, say, the next 5-10 years." So if you enjoyed this video, you know why Greg Ael was buying the stock, and what I personally think about Bergkshire Hathaway stock. In the future, please be sure to click the " Subscribe" button. Thank you for watching "The Ultimate Investing."
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