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as we're getting closer and closer to the big day August 28th Nvidia will report their quarterly figures and of course all the attention will turn to guidance is guidance still up to par with what the market is expecting is guidance still good enough for this company to be trading at a market cap of $3 trillion a for PE of 42.1 times is it going to be enough are the analy estimates going to be met or are they going to be revised on the way down now since the last video of Nvidia was of course when it dropped under $100 since then the stock is back up at $124 if you bought that deep under $100 you're up close to 30% now yeah it's true that in the last month or so Nvidia stock did have some weakness most semiconductor stocks were down it's now down 3% since last month but year to date stock is still up over 150% year years it's up over 183% but let's talk about what might happen not what has happened just for the sake of comparison in the next couple of videos right now the average analyst price Target sits at $140 representing 12 13% upside from the price we're at today and yes of course right now it comes at no surprise that from a Ford p stand point we are extremely close to the 5year mean if that we're still lower price to sales we are quite high at 23.3 times price to free cash flow quite close at 77.8 times but that's in the last 12 months but price earnings to growth still 1.15 so my eyes not the most expensive out there of course that's because the expectations are that they will continue to grow and grow quite fast still have the majority of market share we know we know that every big tech company will continue to spend billions and billions of dollars and where do you think those billions of dollars are going they are going to the market leader of course they might be trying out AMD chips maybe some other chips from some other companies but since Nvidia does dominate the market some analysts are saying we're going to look at the chart a little bit later 85 to 90 plus% market share so when you hear meta Google Amazon Microsoft all of those companies talk about I mean Tesla xai all of those companies talk about spending billions and billions billion more data centers you know that the majority of that money goes to Nvidia of course it's true some of them are developing their own chips some of them are designed their own chips which is of course something you need to keep an eye on for the coming 5 years or so because remember just because you have an idea to go and compete with Nvidia does not mean that you will be able to compete with Nvidia tomorrow next quarter next year these things take an insane amount of time guess what everybody's using the same company to make those chips right everybody's going to tsmc so of course tsmc is a no-brainer investment right now cuz doesn't matter what compan is going to dominate the chip Market eventually they will all need the top of the top and they will go to tsmc maybe in the future hopefully me as a Intel shareholder hopefully in the future they will call Intel and ask them to make the chips as well but today it's all going to tsmc and then the majority of the chips the gpus are coming from Nvidia but what we need to talk about is the expectations right now what has been happening super investors have sold some shares as well so let's talk about all of that hit all the buttons like subscribe if you're new here you can always unsubscribe later but maybe only unsubscribe after we've reached 100,000 subscribers thank you very much if you want to support me even further do check out the links down in the description and in the pink comment with the top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to f.com investor thank you very much so let's start with the guy in the thumbnail Stanley Dr Miller of course Legendary Legendary investor so he did cut his position in Nvidia not just in Q2 but already in q1 as well said we did cut that and a lot of other positions in late March I just need a break we've had one hell of a run a lot of what we recognize has become recognized by the market place now he first bought Nvidia shares in the fourth quarter of 2022 admitting that I didn't even know how to spell it so AI might be a little overhyped now but underhyped long term the big payoff might be four to 5 years from now he also talked about strategy investment strategy investing discipline so drir believes that good investors are successful not because of their IQ but because they have an investing discipline and this is what I've talked about in the past quite a lot yes it's true you need to be let's say smart I mean you just need the basics right the basics math skills economical skills Finance skills stuff like that to be able to analyze and understand the company then to hold a company when it's down 30 50% has nothing to do with how smart you are it is investment discipline and the same when things go up right he talks here a bit later about going all in when you are very very convinced about an investment the basics of the basics everybody can have the basics everybody can learn but then when you put the money on the table when you opened up your position it's really up to you do you have the stomach to go through a 50% drop do you have the stomach to keep holding your stock even if it's up 50% 100% in a short period of time that's when the people that have the stomach I've made these mistakes in the past right I have sold Nvidia way too early why is that cuz I was up 300 400% or so but why did I sell did the business change did it become worse no it did not I just saw a huge amount of money suddenly not suddenly it took a while but I I saw a huge green and I was like okay good enough of course I missed out on another 3 4X lesson learned right yeah lesson learned at least I did I didn't lose money I lost potential money but it's better to lose potential money than actual money in my opinion but again the basics of the basics you can learn through these videos through other videos through books but then it's really up to you it's really up to you that's that's in my opinion the majority of all the investment Journeys now you might ask yourself okay why did he sell does he think that it's over right now well he then talked a little bit about bulls make money Bears make money and pigs get slaughtered mean don't be too greedy that's my interpretation of this don't be too greedy they've made a lot of money with that Nvidia trade and right now he said he needs a break which is totally fine cuz when you manage that much money when you are very successful in your investment right in a short period of time only two years or so then is it's true that mentally you're like okay look we we've already outperformed by quite a lot maybe made even more money than we thought we would in the next 5 years or or so so okay they sold maybe they want to sit on the sidelines they invested in some other companies as well sitting on the sidelines and looking at what will happen in the coming quarters if they see look this thing is far from over we can jump in that's of course a difference between a retail investor and someone that does invest with billions and billions of dollars he also talked a little bit about how he started so by the way he did work for Soros so Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade you have to go for the juggler it takes courage to be a pig so that's what I did even though he said here he didn't even know how to spell it apparently the conviction was quite high they bought a lot and well the returns were quite something and here you can basically see the trades in the last couple of quarters so in Q2 2024 sold 87.8% of shares inq1 sold 71.5% of shares around 4.42 million shares and he's not the only one he's not the only super investor billionaire investor that has sold in Q2 so David terer from appala management reduced Again by 8439 per.
Maris and power reduced by 3.67% Lee andle by 2.86% these are by the way billions of dollars worth of portfolios but two did buy Viking Global investor did buy 1.3 million shares that's a huge huge portfolio so it's still quite a small position but you have seen more sellers than buyers you have seen a lot of Insider selling as well right it's not always a red flag because insiders have sold for quite a while now and Nvidia kept going up and up and up so yeah it's not always a red flag it's something you can look at fine but I don't always see oh insiders are selling red flag we have to sell no cuz if that was the case you would have sold a year or two ago when Insider sold and since then the stock what is double triple maybe even more right so you have to take that into consideration then now that we're approaching the earnings report now that we've learned about potential Blackwell delays and all of that look at the big picture look at the AI Market size the expectations of it for the next coming years by 2030 it could reach 8 26.7 billion right now 2024 it's at 84 billion and when you know that well this was number the were numbers by the end of 2023 I don't I don't think they've changed that much and even if even if Nvidia lost a little bit back then they were at 92% data center gpus let's say they lost 2% let's say they lost even 7% so they're at 85% 85% of these numbers in the coming years is a lot a lot of money that will flow into Nvidia of course it might be that in the coming years their market share goes down and down I think that's just my opinion I think yes maybe Market sharewise they might have peaked that does not mean that they will not make a lot more money in the future because remember Nvidia while everybody thinks it is only a hardware thing it has software margins for a reason one pricing power and two well actual soft software Cuda they have software that actually works with their chips and of course if you're building out data centers if you're building out products thanks to their Nvidia gpus you're running their software as well running some models as well and that will continue in the future cuz imagine in the future like okay we actually want to switch are you going to switch everything probably not right probably not you're going to stay with envidia plus humanoid robots electric vehicles robot taxis expect Nvidia software and Hardware in those products as well now to end or before we end just want to touch on a analyst comment here so the semiconductor giant is expected to report second quarter results on August 28th the consensus estimate call for earnings per share of 64 cents on revenue of 2854 billion the analyst here said of je freeze says the bigger shift though is early volumes of Blackwell in Q4 and larger Rams into the back of the the first half could look closer to small volumes in the first half and larger ramp in the second half I've talked about this in the last video I've talked about well showed you the comments from Jensen 1 saying that they expect a lot of Revenue of black oil in 2024 if the delays are real are we going to see a lot of Revenue of Blackwell in 2024 probably not he continued by saying here shorter term the length and impact of the Blackwell delays are pushing out some of the revenue upside from Blackwell with investors trying to parse to what degree longer term the debate has shifted from mvl volumes and content to the mix of dgx versus mgx configurations the analyst further added that demand for the company's Hopper chips remain robust and inventories and continued production could help reach the Gap to Nvidia ramping Blackwell talking here about h100 h200 which were still Supply constraint in the previous quarter so that could definitely help Nvidia and to be honest to be honest of course you had that opportunity already to buy under $100 if let's say there is some weakness in guidance in the comments for Blackwell the stock could definitely go down that's a short-term thing I think that's an opportunity of course I don't know if we're going back under $100 I don't know I don't have a crystal ball but like I said back then I'm saying back right now I don't expect nvidia's business to start struggling anytime soon we don't don't expect any of the big Tech players to start well spending less either they've all said the same thing they will continue to spend and build out their data centers so Nvidia whether it's short-term weakness or headlines or China or whatnot if there is weakness take the opportunity or you can also of course go to ASL to tsmc also great options and so right now to finish it off we can see that well in the last two weeks we did have we didn't go under the 200 day moving average but we were quite close to the 200 day moving average then we've got that rebound we're now well above the 20 and the 50-day moving average at $124 RSI is quite High not overbought just yet but as I said in the past just because you're overbought does not mean that the stock cannot go higher as you've seen here at the start of 2024 so overall that's about it for me in this video of course do share your thoughts down in the comment section below like subscribe hit all the buttons and I see all in a next one bye-bye
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