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엔비디아 Blackwell 출시 지연 루머에도 수요 강세가 지속되며 회사의 시장 지배력이 유지될 것으로 봄. PER 34.4배, 매출 성장률 약 100% 전망. 주가가 100달러 아래로 하락하면 매수 기회로 제시하며, 8월 실적 발표 전 조정 시 분할 매수 가능성을 언급. 단기 지연 우려보다 장기 성장성에 무게.
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a lot has been mentioned about Nvidia more recently especially when we talk about Blackwell the next big thing for NVIDIA apparently this might be delayed by how much we don't know and we don't even know if it's completely true but since various news outlets and reports have come out then yes maybe that might be true but we're also going to have to go back to the q1 earning score and analyst conference and listen or read in this case what Jensen and Nvidia management have said about the Blackwell production and release also we'll talk about the h200 because although all the Focus right now is on that next big thing Blackwell h200 yet to become a huge part of the business right Supply demand there's huge demand not enough Supply as of well the last time that they spoke about it now Nvidia itself the stock did come down close to 20% % in the last month or so you might be one of the few lucky ones that did pick up shares under $100 you might also be lucky if at the end of August yes they do confirm that there are delays that it might impact margins or Revenue growth in the short run then probably yes the market will take this as a negative and the stock might drop why is that one it's up quite a lot this year already 105% but that's not an excuse lot of stocks can be up a lot if the business is per performing well then the stock should go up well unless you're someone like PayPal or Sofi then even in good performances you're not getting rewarded but coming back to Nvidia here 34.4 times forward PE EV to sales next 12 months 18.8 not the cheapest out there but if you look what the market is expecting still year-year growth for sales close to 100% over 100% EPS growth and then for the next fiscal year still 37 38% year-over-year growth top and bottom line and if we're talking about dominance I don't think Nvidia will lose its dominance anytime soon in the future yes maybe you will say Okay 24 25 that was Peak market share for NVIDIA that's fine but it's not to say that Nvidia will not grow plus when we talk about Nvidia of course everything is about data centers right now but don't forget that they become bigger and bigger when we talk about software as well so take all of that into consideration and by the way all in all if we compare the current valuation metrics to the 5-year mean for PE is cheaper today EV tuida cheaper today price to sales a bit more expensive price to free cash flow that's in the last 12 months metric so probably in the next quarter or two it's probably going to be much cheaper as well then price earnings to growth still beneath one which usually means it is cheap but of course if there are delays if it does impact the next quarter or two then the price earnings to growth will probably go up a bit but even if it's 1.2 1.3 that is really not that expensive All Things Considered so let's have a look at everything that's gone on with Nvidia now and in the last 3 months if you enjoy these type of videos leave it a thumbs up subscribe if you have not really appreciate that want support me even further do check out the link down in the description and in the pin com and cre the top 10 best stocks to buy now or go to full.com couch investor thank you very much I'll of course have to start with this little meme that I showed you I think yesterday or two days ago so the state of llm models you've got the recent 100 meter Sprints where no is basically won by a hair I think 5,000 of seconds or something like that and then you've got the state of the GPU Market which of course us bolt here is NVIDIA and then you've got all the rest what does this mean llm models you've got plenty of those but what's the difference not not much gpus the difference right now is quite big so if we go and look at what Nvidia told us three months ago talking about Nvidia Blackwell and wave of data center scale platform power the trillion parameter AI era they said a couple of things here one Nvidia Blackwell enables realtime generative AI on trillion parameter large language models at up to 25 times lower TCO and energy consumption than its predecessor Blackwell delivers up to four times faster training and 30 times faster inference than the h100 so although the h100 also h200 but especially h100 it's not so old the improvements here are quite huge so you can understand the demand for Blackwell they here the Nvidia b200 GPU is the world's most powerful cheap then they end by saying that Blackwell products will be available starting later 2024 we also know that for the data center they said that supply for h100 continued to improve so there is quite a big backlock there and there is an even bigger backlog for the h200 which last quarter they said is still constrained demand 4 h200 and Blackwell is well ahead of Supply expect demand may exceed Supply well into next year black whale in full production and we are working to bring up our system and Cloud partners for Global availab ility later this year now before continuing I do want to add a couple of extra details here some context for all of you AI lovers data centers etc etc this was a conversation between an expert and an analyst talking about building AI data centers so one he said here 18 to 25% of a data center build in MoneyWise are cooling products why is that well they said for cooling air is 17 times less less effective in removing heat than liquid that's why we've seen smci D all move towards liquid cooling and this is of course just the start they also said that going from cloud data center to an AI data center they need about 40% more power so yeah it's great that everybody's buying those chips building out those data centers etc etc but eventually you would like the best chip but the one that will also provide you with the less energy consumption moving to meta's comment well meta said that Lama Tre is already competitive with the most advanced models and they're already starting to work on Lama 4 the amount of compute needed to train Lama 4 will likely be almost 10 times more than what they used to train Lama 3 and future models will continue to grow beyond that it's hard to predict how this trend or how this will trend multiple Generations out into the future but at this point zck rather risk building capacity before it is needed rather than too late given the long lead times for spinning out new inference projects so again if we're talking here about demand there's still plenty of demand moving on to what was said in an analyst conference so an analyst asked here how's the Outlook around Blackwell as we look at next year how far is your visibility of growth into next year to which Ian Buck answered here so there's one question about how far forward we work with all of our not just our biggest customers but all those AI Visionaries that are building those Foundation models and then what does the ramp look like in Blackwell specifically so we stated recently in our earnings that Blackwell has now entered into production builds so we started our production he also said that the samples will go out this quarter and they're ramping for production out later this year the challenge of course is with every new technology transition that comes the value is so high there's always a mix of a challenge of supply and demand we've experienced this with hopper and there will always be similar kinds of Supply demand constraint in the onramp of Blackwell certainly at the end of this year and going into next year another question and this was in the earning SC so first one I wanted to drill a little bit into the blackw comment that is in full production now what does that suggest with regards to shipment and delivery timing if that product is doesn't sound like it's sampling anymore to which Jensen here said we've been in production for a little bit of time but our production shipment will start in Q2 and ramp in Q3 and customers should have data centers stood up in Q4 so this year will we see Blackwell Revenue to which Jensen said we will see a lot of Blackwell Revenue this year this was 3 months ago by the way then he continued we started sampling the h h200 in q1 and are currently in production with shipments on track for Q2 the first h200 system was delivered by Jensen 2 Sam Alman and the team at open Ai and powered their amazing GPT 40 demos last week h200 nearly doubles the inference performance of h100 delivering significant value for production deployments we see increasing demand of Hopper through this quarter and we expect to be expect demand to outstrip supply for some time as we now trans ition to h200 and to Blackwell so again this was 3 months ago unless something bad happened really last last minute I don't think it will hit Nvidia as hard as people think but that's again unless these things really happen in the last minute and Jensen here was just overly optimistic with his prediction why am I saying this well because during smc's earnings call we also got some information there so an analyst asked here there have been some reports recently about the delay of Blackwell from Nvidia just wondering if you can share your thoughts of how that would impact the conversion of the robust backlog or pipeline that you're looking at to revenue through the year Charles here CEO of smci said we heard Nvidia may have some delay right and we treat that as a normal possibility when they introduce new technology new product there always have a chance to there will always be a push out a little bit in this case it pushed out a little bit but to us I believe we have no problem to provide a customer with a new solution like h200 liquid cooling so again even if Blackwell is delayed a little bit I think Nvidia has quite a lot of levers to pull in the short run to not get hit that hard we've got some comments from some analysts as well Rosen BL maintains price target of $200 so Nvidia Shares are under pressure due to continued rumors of a several month delay in Blackwell gpus due to an undisclosed silicon flaw we have not confirmed any design flaws or timing issues with B100 in calendar Q4 b200 in q1 of calendar 2025 or gb200 in Q2 of calendar 2025 speculation has centered on the b200s delay from late 2024 into early 2025 note that the b200 is a different platform and a higher performance part versus the B100 our current model has always assumed that Nvidia would release the b200 in early 2025 we are comfortable with our Blackwell assumptions and the timing of the various Q ramp for a current sampling of Parts without any issues or delays we then had JP Morgan saying that while the Nvidia Blackwell AI servers are expected to see an annual output of 500,000 units from Team Green a decrease from the anticipated 600,000 units so a difference of 100,000 units the financial firm says design flaws are associated with this drop in figures and that Nvidia is currently conducting engineering design changes a process that would also take more time and money this might push the release of Blackwell's AI servers into the first quarter of 20125 which is around 4 months ahead of what was planned as for a Bernstein analyst they were saying there is uncertainty surrounding Blackwell and its design flaw but given that Team Green plays a vital role amongst the top Tech Giants and that nvidia's dominance is currently unchallenged the delay won't have much of an effect and if you needed some information about the Q2 Outlook so they expect revenue of $28 billion gross margin a bit lower than q1 and Q4 but remember q1 and Q4 had some Tailwinds so don't be alarmed if it comes in a bit lower still gross margin on a gap basis 74.8% and 75.5% N Gap and by the way when they release that guidance guidance for Q2 which they will report at the end of August they beat the Market's Expectations by around 5% so yeah you can buy Nvidia shares cheaper today of course there will still be those headlines right after the earnings report whether or not it's a big impact or not remains to be seen But if you want to increase your share count of Nvidia I would say that yes under $100 would be a good choice now can it go lower 100% but remember even if the delays are real even if it's a delay of let's say 1 month 2 months 3 months it that's it it's three months don't you think that Nvidia has a pretty big backlog for all of the other products and what happens after those three months business as usual right so yes if you can get Nvidia at a cheaper price in my opinion it's I would say close to a no-brainer looking at the graph here before we end the video the St was very very close at around $91 92 very close to the 200 day moving average at 87.5 that's great to see it rebound of course the whole Market has rebounded a little bit as well but it does seem like Nvidia will be staying around those areas until that earnings report so if you can buy Nvidia on some weakness that's definitely an option if you're a long-term investor if you're looking for trades then I can help you here but Nvidia still a great company will they have the same amount of market share that they have today 10 years from now probably not will they still be a great company probably yes because Nvidia as a software they are going to be quite a dominant player and software as we know is a high margin business so that's everything you need to know right now with regards to Nvidia do share your thoughts down in the comment section below like subscribe do all of that and I'll see you all in the next one bye-bye
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