저자: RayDalio · 외국인
요약 보기
요약: 비트코인은 11년간 검증된 자산이지만 금 대비 가치 상한이 있어 100만 달러 같은 극단적 가격은 불가능하다고 봄. 비트코인 진화와 화폐 경쟁: 11년간 해킹 없이 작동해 주목받았고, 법정화폐 남발로 인해 비트코인 포함 여러 화폐 간 경쟁이 시작된다고 봄. 중앙은행 디지털화폐와 NFT까지 화폐 역할을 할 수 있다고 언급. 금 선호: 추적이 어려운 금을 선호하며 중앙은행 준비자산 3위 등 수천 년간 보편적 화폐로 인정받은 점을 강조. 자신의 포트폴리오에서 금이 주된 비중이고 비트코인은 일부. 가치 상한 분석: 금 시장에서 장식·중앙은행 용도를 제외한 투자 가능 금액은 약 5조 달러, 비트코인 시가총액은 약 1조 달러 수준. 두 자산 합산 가치는 금의 약 20% 수준이라 비트코인이 금을 넘기는 것은 어렵다고 판단. 다만 확신은 없다고 명시. 투자 경험과 전망: 과거 비트코인 2만 달러 고점 후 폭락 시 매수하고 9천 달러 돌파 때 추가 매수했다고 회상. 향후 10년간 큰 변동성(상승·하락 반복)이 예상되며 비트코인은 등락을 거듭할 것으로 봄. 은 가격 100달러 가능성 언급. 리스크와 규제: 중앙은행(연준) 코인이 나오면 상업은행이 필요 없어져 기존 금융 구조가 무너질 수 있다고 우려. 정부가 비트코인을 억압할 수 있다는 가능성 언급. 세금·투자 철학: 기업가는 자산을 직접 만들어 401k·IRA 같은 주식시장 제도에 의존하지 않는다는 입장. 대기업 소유주는 낮은 세율을 적용받는다는 점을 지적. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 1.2백만 달러(지인 예측), 25만 달러(Max Keiser), 10만 달러 등 다양한 예측을 소개하며 본인은 극단적 예측에 동의하지 않음.
다듬은 글
well the evolution of Bitcoin over the years is one of the things that has influenced changes in my view has proven itself something like 10 11 years ago imagine programming of this and here's the you throw it out and that's the idea it has not been hacked it has operated it is built it has come an amazing way over that 11 years probably the most excited topic among a lot of people and has been used and and is now has obtained you know the status of having imputed value at the same time it is one of those assets that is an alternative money I think we're entering an era where um there's going to be a competition of monies because of the printing of Fiat money and the depreciated value there will be a competition of monies and Bitcoin is part of that competition but there'll be many monies not just crypto money days but they'll be Central Bank crypto monies but there'll be different kinds of monies and even monies um are things that you buy and sell nfts can become a money type of money you own it and it's an investment and you could say I'd rather own it than own uh Bitcoin it has uh Ray Dalia bought any nfts not yet only only just because like I definitely want to buy a nfts to just experience that you know I think I should produce one yeah and I should should have asked that have you made have you mentioned it and that you probably shouldn't just to know what it's like yeah that's right this stuff is happening this stuff is real okay and how it operates but like all new real things some are going to go and some gonna you know it's like in the internet in the year 2000 you know pets.com could have been a great but babypets.com doesn't make it and who knows that's the beauty of the competitive system that'll evolve and some things will be treasured and some things will be uh trashed so but when I look at it I think we are in an environment of you know what is an alternative money a money has two purposes a medium of exchange and a storehold of wealth and it's portable and it's best if it's recognized in other countries so gold is one of those so I look at it as an alternative goal but I look at a number of things as alternative goal and I think that and I think and gold is still my favorite because of certain qualities for example um you can't trace it in Bitcoin you can trace who owns it where it's going and and so on governments can have that ability to trace it and so a gold piece of coin it's it's not connected I think not connected has benefits particularly in a world where maybe connections can be more risky and then also gold has been for many thousands of years universally recognized as a source of money and central banks it's the third largest source of money in Central Bank Reserves and don't think Bitcoin is going to serve those types of purposes and so on so for various reasons I prefer gold to the other but it's a little bit part of my mix but then you look at it it hit I think 69 000 this year is the high Bitcoin hit do you think it's possible you mentioned gold do you think it's possible it reaches very high numbers like 1 million that some people talk about I don't think that's possible because the way I look at it is there's a certain amount of certain amount of it and there's a certain amount of gold I'll use gold as a benchmark the amount of it is worth about five about one trillion dollars total crypto is about 2.2 trillion but let's say Bitcoin it's one trillion dollars if you take the amount of money that is in Gold that is not used for jewelry purposes and not used by central banks and I assume Bitcoin won't be used for jewelry purposes or Central Bank purposes that amount in gold is about five billion dollars so right now if you were to have a portfolio that has gold and Bitcoin it's worth about 20 percent of the value of gold do I think it's going to be worth more than gold in terms of that mix I don't think it'll be worth more than gold but let's say it became worth as much as gold I don't believe it will be I think the 20 sounds kind of about right I really don't know that what the right answer is and then there's the question of what is all of that pool of money that let's say gold and gold equivalents relative to everything else does it go from you know let's call it six seven eight trillion to 16 trillion maybe it could double that depends what it is in the world environment but basically if you use gold as a measure there's no it just makes no sense that it's going to be used that much more am I sure about that I'm not sure about anything but logically it seems to me um that there's a limitation on its price in relationship to other things that are like it well I like crypto because I'm technologically a dinosaur I barely use my cell phone so I talk to younger guys you know the I'm I also know that I consult to like high school kids they grew up with the iPhone you know I don't wear my iPhone is yeah but they grew up with that iPhone so I know this one 19 year old she started trading at 10 years old on the iPhone I'm like what I can barely go to Amazon on my phone I'm so I'm a dinosaur so and I saw crypto coming out you know I I heard about her about and then I think it went to 20K but as you know it always retraced it's all booms plus so as soon as it busted it went down to a thousand then I'm going to test the strength of it because I took technical trading courses you know technical is a volatility and this year is fundamental income statement balance sheet I'll talk about this later so this fundament this fundamentals which is the income statement balance sheet and then technical so I took three years of Technical and I realized my mother was right I'm not smart it's best to stay with oil and gold flow but anyway when I watched the technicals drop okay so Bitcoin went this is years ago went to 20 from 20 to about one I think or so and I watched it watched it watched it watch it watch it and watched the momentum pick up so I I came in at sixth house so I bought it six I bought 60 coin plus ethereum and as you know your profits made when you buy not when you sell so then I watched the screen up I don't know everybody's saying it's a million dollars you know I don't I don't get sucked into the hype because my rich dad taught me early on your profit is made when you buy not when you sell what does that mean wait for the crash right crash make the rich wretcher right the profit is made when you buy so you should be buying at those times when there's blood in the streets you should be buying at those intelligent levels so in 1960 and 1980 My Generation the Boomers didn't like stocks because everybody at my time of when I was a kid everybody said anybody invests in the stock market is a gambler now everybody's in the stock market so how did that happen well in 1974 that brought this thing called a 401k I won't touch that thing I would not touch a 401k or an IRA why because I don't have you know they tell you exactly actually until you went to wear the mask and when to get a vaccine they tell you what you can invest in in a 401k in an IRA I refuse to do that I refuse to do that but I don't have because as an entrepreneur I create my own assets I don't need the stock market you do I'm not saying don't invest and I'm not saying don't have a 401k don't have an IRA just screw you I'm not going to be tall what to do that's why I'm an entrepreneur you like being told what to do go to school get a job save money pay your taxes get out of debt and invest the stock market I don't want to do that so your crypto guys you got to be smarter because what possibly it hasn't happened yet is a Fed coin or a Yuan coin a Chinese coin China will probably have it before the US and there will be a European coin they want to destroy Bitcoin so you guys in Bitcoin you've got to be smarter so as it's coming down like I said I'm still going to buy more but when it passes 27 000 I'm going to back up the truck just like I did when it passed uh nine thousand because that's that's what Traders do so let me show you the the bigger thing here is this this is the future this has not happened but it might have if there's a Fed coin they're going to get rid of the commercial Banks you see the only way the money can go into the marketplace right now is if not fed the FED Prince money they give the money to commercial Banks like U.S bank and Bank of America and Wells Fargo and they lend the money out but if the FED coin comes out they don't need these Banks and you work for a bank detention Wells Fargo and the only way somebody could get money they got a credit card real estate or student loan right we need that credential so if there's a Fed claim Wells Fargo's gone I'm not saying this is going to happen this is my prediction of what might happen don't say I'm saying it's going to go out and all this at the same time if fed coin comes in it wipes me out because the way I get my money is I have great credit and like I said just last week Ken McElroy and I borrowed 160 million dollars that's the only way money gets into the system is guys like us capitalists have to borrow money School teachers can't even get a credit card so stupid well they got a student alone want to rip off that but a guy like me will go out there and use debt I said here I use debt to acquire assets that's why one of my friends predicted that Bitcoin will go to 1.2 million I don't know that I just listened to him it's a lot smarter than me you know but he says 1.2 million Max kosher says 250 000 some guys say you know a hundred thousand I watch silver I think silver will go to 100 and silver goes to 100 I make a lot of money it doesn't make any difference there's so many ways you can get rich in a capitalist Society but the moment we go to this here we've lost so I don't know what the future holds but I think this is where we're going so if this happens my gold and silver are not in this country I love Bitcoin because it's portable why I'm very bullish I'm very optimistic about Bitcoin because it's going to be chaos for the next 10 years and Bitcoin will go up and down up and down up and down up and down if hearing up and down blockchain will go up and down and then they're going to try and put me guys like me in jail happens every time so this here is it this is our schools go to school get a job become a small entrepreneur you know start a pizza shop or something I don't do that because these guys pay 40 taxes remember money is debt and taxes so they they work for money they pay 40 taxes they work for money they pay 60 taxes so the small entrepreneurs the guys who are just startups are going to pay the highest taxes around but the big business guys like Elon Musk and uh Bill Gates and Rich Dad here we only pay 20 tax and as Insight we're inside investors I put my own deals I don't touch stocks bonds Mr funds yeah I'll create my own deal at the water deal I talked about I'm doing a green new deal but I'll pay no taxes at all that's what Financial education does so this is school this is Rich and that's why we created this here Power Plus tool so you can take control of your money and your finances and your education foreign
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