저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 시프는 단기 랠리가 숏커버링과 투기에 의한 비지속적 현상이며, 연준의 금리 인하·양적완화 재개와 인플레이션 재가속으로 금 강세가 이어진다고 본다. 주식시장 분석: 다우 연초 대비 1.7%, S&P500 2.1%, 나스닥 2.5%, 러셀2000 3.5% 상승. 과매도·공매도 집중 종목이 주도하는 랠리는 지속가능성이 낮다고 보며, 캐시 우드의 ARKK ETF(연초 대비 7.6%)도 모멘텀 소진 시 신저점과 주요 지수 하락을 동반할 수 있다고 경고. 금 및 금 관련주: 금은 연초 대비 3%(종가 약 1788달러), GDX 11%, 소형 광산주 GDXJ 11.3% 상승. 금과 금광주가 최상위 성과인 것은 건강한 시장이 아니라는 신호로 해석. 인플레이션 전망: 12월 CPI 발표(목요일)가 현실 점검이 될 수 있다고 언급. 헤드라인 CPI 전년 대비 11월 7.1%→12월 6.6% 하락 기대, 근원 CPI 6.0%→5.7% 하락 기대. 실제로 둔화되지 않으면 시장 급락 가능. 연준 및 금리: 2023년 연준은 인플레이션 승리가 아닌 침체·금융위기 대응을 위해 정책을 완화할 것이며, 금리 인하 가능성이 높고 양적완화 복귀 가능성도 더 높다고 전망. 연방정부 부채는 3할 1.5조 달러에 근접, 금리 상승이 재정 부담을 키운다고 지적. 소비자 신용: 11월 신용카드 잔액 9250억 달러로 2019년 4분기 기록(9270억 달러)에 근접, 평균 카드 금리 19.6%로 사상 최고. 전년 대비 증가율 15%는 20년 내 최대. 전체 소비자 신용은 16.9% 증가, 후불결제(BNPL) 잔액은 집계되지 않아 실제는 더 높을 것이라 주장. 2023년 중 카드 잔액 1조 달러 돌파 예상. 통화·인플레이션 구조: 연준 금리 인상이 신용 확대를 막지 못하고 있으며 인플레 압력은 강화 중이라 평가. 달러 약세가 원자재 및 수입품 가격을 밀어올릴 것이라 봄. 임금 상승은 인플레이션의 원인이 아니라 결과(온도계 비유)이며, 실업을 늘려 임금을 억제하려는 연준의 접근은 공급 감소와 수요 유지로 오히려 인플레를 악화시킨다고 주장. 리스크: 인플레 하락 실패 시 증시 급락, 연준 정책 전환 지연, 재정 및 금융 위기 가능성.
다듬은 글
World Equity markets continue their earlier strength the Dow Jones up again today the index is now up 1.7 percent so far in 2023 it's bringing up the rear of the major indexes the S P 500 doing a bit better of 2.1 and the NASDAQ is up two and a half percent the leader is the Russell 2000 which is up three and a half percent on the year now what are the reasons that you're seeing more strength in the s p than in the Dow is we have gotten a bid in some of the Beaten Down stocks but the fact that those types of stocks are the ones that are leading the rally basically the most overvalued heavily shorted names are the ones that are rallying to me that indicates the unsustainable nature of the current rally when all you have is short covering and maybe some speculators trying to get in for a quick buck and ride these stocks up for example the Kathy Wood Arc Innovation ETF is up 7.6 percent so far this year that likely means that when the momentum runs out and then in fact turns that these stocks are going to come crashing down for new lows and likely take the major indexes down with them but a continuation of the trend from last year farm markets are outperforming foreign stock markets are doing better than the S P 500 and in fact the best performing stocks of all are the gold stocks that continues the GDX as I'm recording this podcast after the market closed on Tuesday is up 11 on the year the gdxj which is the junior miners is up a little bit more up 11.3 percent gold itself is up three percent so far in 2023 it closed Tuesday at about 1788 that's a three percent gain on the year that's better than the S P 500 or the NASDAQ it's only lagging the Russell 2000 but if gold and gold stocks are the top performers that doesn't indicate that you have a healthy market and in fact maybe we're going to get a reality check on Thursday when we get the release of the December CPI that will be the last read on domestic inflation for 2022 and there is some continued optimism that we're not going to get much in the way of inflation the expectation is for an unchanged reading during the month for the headline number and the corex food and energy is supposed to rise by 0.3 the year-over-year rise in the CPI is supposed to come down from 7.1 in November to 6.6 in December and X food and energy is supposed to drop from 6.0 in November to to 5.7 now if we don't get that type of reduction in the official inflation numbers that could send the market into a tailspin because everybody is hanging their hat on the fact that inflation is going to come down in 2023 and because inflation is going to come down the FED is not going to have to be as aggressive as many people suspect the FED will be able to ease up on the rate hikes and in fact if enough progress is made out inflation many people expect the FED to reverse course and begin cutting interest rates before the end of the year now I agree with that camp I think there is a good chance that the FED will cut rates in fact there's probably an even better chance that they will go back to quantitative easing whether they cut rates or not but I do expect the Federal Reserve to ease policy in 2023 but not because of a victory in the war against inflation no they're gonna surrender inflation is going to win that war the fed's going to run to fight another battle at least it's gonna try to fight because it's gonna lose that battle too and that battle is going to be recession maybe financial crisis maybe a battle to try to prop up the U.S government whose insolvency is becoming a bigger problem with Rising interest rates in fact I looked up on the national debt clock and as of right now the national debt is about to hit 31 and a half trillion in 2023 that's another reason that the Federal Reserve is going to back off of its rate hikes and in fact may have to go back to quantitative easing because they will need to buy treasuries that private buyers don't want at interest rates that the U.S government can't afford but while I'm on the topic of credit and debt we got the Consumer Credit numbers for the month of November member that were released yesterday and we had another huge increase in credit card debt in particular total credit card debt is now 925 billion or at least it was at the end of November and that's just 2 billion below the all-time record high which was set in the fourth quarter of 2019 at 927 billion but back then the feds still had interest rates at zero so credit card rates were also a lot lower as of the end of November they hit an all-time record high the average credit card interest rate is now 19.6 percent that's the average so obviously some people are paying higher than 20 so we have near record debt but we have record high interest rates and of course I'm sure that we have record debt by now because it doesn't count the debt from this December and that was what a lot of consumers had to buy Christmas presents or take vacations and I'm sure the cost of a lot of that travel and those gifts were put on a credit card so I'm sure we're at all time record highs in fact sometime in 2023 I expect credit card debt to surpass one trillion dollars but what's also a big deal about this increase and the year-over-year increase is 15 percent that is the biggest year of year gain in credit card debt in 20 years and in fact if you look at total Consumer Credit it's up 16.9 percent and I think this is understating it because a lot of consumers have been taking advantage of buy now and pay later and I don't even know if that counts as credit I know that those buy now pay later companies are not reporting to credit agencies the amount of money that their customers have committed it to pay later and in fact if it wasn't for the proliferation of all these buy now and pay later companies I'm sure credit card debt would already be a lot higher because a lot of the merchandise that was purchased using that gimmick would have been put on a credit card and the irony of it is most of these buy now pay later companies when it comes time to paying later you end up paying on your credit card so all these buy now pay later companies when it's time for the consumer to pay all those charges are going to end up on credit cards there's just a delay between the time the consumer buys something and when the amount that he owes shows up on his credit card but the more significant issue here is not just that all this additional consumer credit and debt is indicative of a weak economy it's also indicative that the FED is losing its battle against inflation because because the FED has to rein in credit the FED has to raise interest rates in order to restrict credit that's the purpose of these rate hikes again what the FED needs to do is discourage people from spending and encourage people to save that's the purpose of these Rising interest rates but that's not happening the FED is Raising interest rates but consumers don't care they're just borrowing more money and spending more money so this credit Supply is expanding and that's going to continue to put upward pressure on prices the FED is making no real Headway in his battle against inflation all that we've seen is a temporary correction in commodity prices a downturn in house prices but beneath the surface the inflationary forces are as strong as ever in fact they're getting stronger and so all these people who are expecting a meaningful reduction in the inflation rate in 2023 aren't going to get what they expect f after a brief downturn in the official numbers we're going to see a surge as consumers continue to spend borrowed money but more importantly as the dollar tanks putting huge upward pressure not only on Commodities causing a reversal and a run to new Highs but on the record level of imports because everything America buys and of course most of the stuff the merchandise that we buy is made abroad all that stuff is going to get a lot more expensive as the dollar Falls and the other reason of course that people think that inflation may come down in 2023 as they think the unemployment rate will go up and they expect a rise in unemployment to bring down inflation in fact many people still think that's the fed's goal that's defense plan is to fight inflation by fighting employment by causing an increase in unemployment by causing a Slowdown at the rate at which wages are rise amazing people think that Rising wages cause inflation and so the FED needs to slow down wage growth with its rate hikes But Rising wages don't cause inflation in fact looking at wages going up and concluding that's the reason for inflation is like somebody who's sick and they have a fever and so they take their temperature with a thermometer and then the thermometer says 102 and they blame their fever on the thermometer well it's not the thermometer's fault it's just reflecting your temperature well that's the same thing with wages Rising wages aren't causing inflation inflation is causing wages to rise so the wages are simply taking the economy's temperature when it comes to inflation now you can't fight inflation by trying to stop wages from going up that would be like trying to fight your Fever by Smashing your thermometer or maybe lowering the reading by putting the thermometer in a cup of ice water that's not going to work if you ignore the underlying illness and just try to cover up the symptoms or deny they're there then you're going to get sicker the same thing is going to happen with inflation If the Fed is thinking that Rising wages are the problem and it tries to solve that or cover that up then the underlying actual problem that is causing wages to go up is going to continue and that's inflation and in fact the reality is to the extent that the FED does succeed in putting people out of work that is actually going to be inflationary because people are going to stop working but they're not going to stop spending they're going to continue to have access to money either through the government or through credit cards and they're going to keep on spending fueling demand but they're not going to be producing and so you get less supply of goods and services and you get more demand
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