저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 개인 투자자는 자신이 잘 아는 업종과 기업에 집중 투자해야 하며, 거시경제 예측에 의존하지 않는 것이 유리하다. [핵심 주장] 개인 투자자는 생활 속 경험에서 얻는 자연적 우위(natural advantage)를 활용해야 한다. 이해하지 못하는 기업에는 투자하지 말 것. 10살 아이에게 2분 안에 설명할 수 없는 회사는 보유하지 말 것. [근거 사례] 아내가 좋아한 제품, 라퀸타 모텔의 서비스 등 일상 경험으로 기업 실적 개선을 판단. 맥도날드·Dunkin Donuts 등 외식 체인 사례로 장기 보유 시 큰 수익(40~50배) 가능성 언급. 월마트는 상장 10년 후 매수해도 약 50배 수익이 가능했다고 설명. [기업 실적과 주가] 장기적으로 기업 이익과 주가는 거의 100% 연동된다고 주장. 유가, 통화량, 대통령 지명, 오존층 등 단기 변수에 신경 쓸 필요가 없다고 봄. [거시경제 예측 불가] 앨런 그린스펀도 금리를 예측하지 못한다고 언급. 1982년 경기침체 당시 실업률 14%, 물가 12% 등을 예로 들며 경기 예측이 어렵다고 주장. [투자 방법] 소수 종목(10년에 몇 개)만으로 충분. 본인이 속한 산업이나 지역 기업을 우선 탐색. 과거 21개 종목을 1992년 초에 골라 관리한 경험 소개. [교육·사례] 중학교 교사가 학생들과 기업 재무제표를 분석해 포트폴리오를 구성한 결과 2년간 69% 상승, 같은 기간 시장은 20% 상승. [투자클럽 성과] 1980년대 투자클럽(약 8,000개) 62%가 시장을 상회, 전문가 25%만 시장 상회. [정책 견해] 자본이득세 인하, 규제 완화, 저금리가 창업과 고용을 촉진한다고 주장. 중소기업이 일자리 대부분을 창출하며 1980년대 순고용 증가(약 1,800만 명)를 근거로 제시. 다만 환경·노동자 보호 규제는 필요하며 독점은 분할해야 한다고 언급. [리스크] 아이디어 없이 단기 매매하면 수수료만 쌓이고 손실 가능. 이해하지 못하는 기업의 하락 시 대응 불가. [출연자 전망] 개별 자산에 대한 구체적 가격 방향 발언 없음.
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people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them wrote a book called one up on Wall Street and I think that's one of the best-selling books ever about Wall Street if I'm not right you can correct me so why then did you write another book okay first of all I was very lucky I wrote it with John Rothschild he was made he made a big difference the reason I wrote it is the first I tried to explain to people they're great advantages they're edges they have and that they should get involved in stock and they should do it on the right basis on the first book right and obviously I didn't make a great impression because the percent of people's assets involved in stocks has gone down in 1960 he played 40 percent of their financial assets including their house in stocks and mutual funds in 80 that was down to 25 it's now down to 17 and why do you think that is well I think people in the decade of the 80s was the best decade this Century for stocks I think people managed to lose money in the 80s doing it by themselves because their methods were so flawed so I I really feel as though I wanted people to understand I don't want anybody to buy a stock I'm saying if you're going to buy a stock you should do certain things right you're not willing to do these things you should leave your money in the bank your philosophy is simple and I remembering this from previous book I think we're now talking about the previous book correct your philosophy was if you find something that you identify with I remember there was a story of My Wife and Her hoes your legs are penny your wife said these are the greatest things I've ever seen right and when your wife said that you knew that this was a product that was better right you used to stay at La Quinta motel right and the service was better whatever was better price is good and the price was good too and you said this is a place that I can determine Peter Lynch can tell that this is a good product right if these people make a good product then their earnings are going to go up there for the Stock's going to go up right and I that's the kind of decision-making process you ought to go through right do I have it you've got it exactly right well I do I don't think people understand there's a hundred percent correlation with what happens to a company's earnings over several years and what happens to the stock if the company McDonald's has done very well as a company right the stock is done very well people worry about too much money supply what's happening the price of oil whether who's the president who's being nominated for the Supreme Court it's all the ozone layer there's nothing to do McDonald's earnings go up the next 10 years the stock will go but what they will say to you Peter is that as you know and why am I telling you this but it's fun to tell you this they're telling you that these other things influence the amount of earnings of a particular company if we're in a recession people are not going to spend as much money on going to the movies or whatever they do and and therefore you got to pay attention to these other things because they impact on Earth they are very important but you have no idea of knowing what they're going to do Alan Greenspan's the head of the Federal Reserve right he cannot predict interest rates he'd be the first to influence him but he can't predict them he cannot predict what long-term interest rates are going to be one year from now two years from now three years he's even surprised how low they are now right so how am I supposed to demonstrate how am I supposed to predict the economy you certainly remember the recession of 82 yes 1982 we had a 20 crime rate 14 unemployment 12 inflation I don't remember anybody telling me in 1980 or 81 that was going to happen also we had the worst recession since the depression I didn't read about the paper so it's crazy to think about these things here's a quote for me I own Dunkin Donuts when you own Dunkin Donuts you don't have to worry about Korean imports you don't have to worry about M2 or M3 these are money supply figures right I think and what's happening to the money supply this is the way you make money if you don't understand what the company does you should not be in it if you could predict the stock market you could predict the economy you could predict interest rates if you go buy the wrong stocks you're going to lose half your money anyway you interesting people have natural advantages let's say what you do for a living is you're involved in the restaurant industry right you supply paper products you supply kitchen equipment you help build restaurants you saw McDonald's you saw chichis you saw Chili's you saw Cracker Barrel you saw Dunkin Donuts Kentucky Fried Chicken Taco Bell these are all these test stories these were 40 40 fold you made 40 or 50 times your money you don't need to make that kind of money many times your life right no that's all you had to do was follow the restaurant English people are in Industries they're in the publishing industry they're in the chemical industry why don't they just stay where they needed to be you only need a few stocks a decade how many good stocks do you need a lifetime instead of people they're in the restaurant industry they're buying biotechnology stocks the people in the campus the people in the chemical industry are buying oil stocks it's absolutely absurd people don't understand their natural advantages and they don't use them so that's that's bad number one but worst number two is they do if you don't think you're a good ice skater or if you're convinced you're not a good cellist you're not going out and try it but people are buying stocks anyway they're not discouraged they just think it's a game gamble so therefore they go forward and they they bet on one stock for a week and a half and it goes up and they make two dollars on it then they sell it and they buy something else when three years is over all they've done is generate a lot of commissions and they've probably lost money that's a mistake so your advice is what if you don't understand a company if you can't explain it to a 10 year old in two minutes or less don't own it because when it goes down let's say the stock goes down too you won't understand what's going on what do you do do you buy more do you do you have chances are your broker doesn't either he or she certainly doesn't know about it I mean who knows what Advance what all these things are at Auto act planes and mega flops who knows what it is so buy what you know Buy in your industry buy what you know Buy Local games so suppose you you don't have an industry I mean you know you don't really well you buy local companies right companies your own industry 10 years after Walmart went public 10 years at Walmart 10 years after it went public it's a 25 year old company you could have bought the stock and made 50 times your money on it 50 times this is if you bought a 10 years after it was public already it already gone up fivefold so you could have made 254 but I'm saying let's say you were in the town they came into it they said boy these prices are great they're doing terrific I like the bargains you checked it out you spent a little bit of work on it I mean people are very careful they when they buy a dishwasher they do some research they'll put ten thousand dollars in some stock they hear on the bus so if you did a little bit of research you say Walmart's only 10 of the country they're not even saturated there why can't they go to the rest of the country I picked 21 one stocks early in 1992 some work some don't I follow those companies some of the companies the fundamentals deteriorate some they improve I watch those companies go through the year I also explained the retail industry I try to make it very simple and I talk about a wonderful example it's a seventh grade class the teacher that read my book and my first book that you were talking about you you and I did a show on that in Washington you remember that show this is a long time ago she read the book and I said if you made it through fifth grade math you can do it in the stock market she says okay she started teaching it in seventh grade seventh grade class these kids had to study companies they had to look at their balance sheets to see if they're solvented they pick stocks these stocks were up 69 over two years when the market was up only 20.
they picked stocks like limited they picked the Gap they picked they understood these companies they also picked IBM I lost money on that too I mean everybody makes business yeah but I'm saying this is this was this was the school St agnesis School in Arlington Mass but in addition in the decade of the 80s there's 8 000 investment clubs these are amateur sort of average people just invested these investment clubs 62 percent of them of these clubs beat them Market in the decade of the 80s only 25 percent of professionals beat the market you don't buy into the stimulus package don't buy into that at all you believe that we don't need to go out and create jobs Charlie we've we've had eight recessions since World War II we've got out of every one of them this is number nine there's nothing unique about the system we'll get out of this one and the decade of the 80s the 1980s we had an 18 million jobs in the United States but but soon as you say that as you know people are saying yeah Peter but look what we did when Ronald Reagan came to the White House the deficit was what 70 billion dollars 65 70 million dollars and now it's approaching 350 billion dollars and the amount of money that we have to spend to pay off the interest on that debt is saddling us and destroying us you're right I agree you're right I agree with that don't tell me how many jobs but you can always create jobs if you're willing to no no the government didn't create that right the 500 largest companies in the 80s eliminated 3 million jobs eliminated 3 million and we added 18 million these 2.2 million in businesses started 2.2 million businesses started in the 80s now some of them didn't make it right but if an average they have 10 employees today that's 22 million jobs what the only thing that creates wealth the only thing that creates taxes to pay for all these wonderful things is jobs there is something magic about jobs and jobs come from companies Stars that's what I should say small companies create all the jobs so that's what I'm trying this is not voodoo economics this is the real thing you have to encourage people to take some risk to put their money out and go start a business it's a risky proposition and you do that by what kind of government policies other than a zero capital gains or a 10 capital gains lower interest what's the capital gains at 20 28 20 plus it's the highest capital gains rate we've ever had in the history of this country right it's never been this high I mean it's terrible how high the capital gains rate is that's not encouraging people what you want you want to have lower say you want to have lower interest rates lower paperwork people start a business now they have this much paperwork to fill out on this regulation they go crazy that's crazy you got to cut that out yeah oh well okay but then some I mean those kind of regulations then people would be creating dumping into the rivers and not protecting these are regulations protecting the health of their employees I mean look what happened down in my home state of North Carolina because of you know the fire they had down there and people say if you don't have some kind of government regulation and companies aren't doing their job to protect their workers then this is not the kind of society but some of these regulations relate to the size of your paper clips some of this paperwork is sometimes you could do it with one piece of paper one that's it I mean okay that would be a good possible I think Clinton it really wants to make it work the capitalist system works obviously you want to protect the consumer and business people care to extreme when the oil Monopoly and the steel Monopoly that's wrong too I mean I think trust should be broken up there is a role for government foreign
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