저자: MikeSwartz · 외국인
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증시 급락 속 공포탐욕지수 20, VIX 27.84로 변동성 높음. 제이미 다이먼의 과잉반응 발언에 대해 경기침체 확률은 그대로라고 반박. 나스닥·S&P·다우 하락, 달러 강세 시 금은 지지선 돌파 여부에 따라 조정 가능성과 신고가 상승 시나리오를 모두 언급. 나스닥·SPY 일봉/주봉 MACD 하락 전환을 근거로 추가 하락 가능성을 강조. 선물은 17,540~17,430 구간 이탈 시 추가 테스트 예상, 원유·선물 일부 저항 구간 제시. 전반적으로 하방 우위 관점이나 단기 반등 시나리오도 병행.
다듬은 글
stocks come tumbling lower Jamie demon makes an announcement in the fear and greed index is sitting at 20 is the market headed for a bounce or or are we going to continue to Cascade lower today we see Airbnb stock is on Pace for its biggest percentage drop ever and if we look at Airbnb real quick what do we see basically a spinning top type of candle we have a candle of indecision we have a wick on the top a wick on the bottom now the question is will the buyers be able to step back in we look right over here to the left we previously had support in the market now what do we see we see the market dropping down here substantially giving us a candle of indecision if we look at the volatility index we saw the vix today was up a whopping 14 cents but we are still elevated we are still sitting at 27.84 and that's why we see the markets big move up big move down that is a very normal occurrence now if we look at what Jamie demon had to say investors overreacted and recession odds remain about the same now recession odds could remain the same but has anything really changed regardless of Jamie demon says everybody overreacted and I do agree there was a slight bit overreaction but does that really change the odds we all know we are in a recession or we are very close to it all right it has nothing to do with the recent stock market price action we look right here last night during the live stream we saw the Nik the Yen rocking up higher causing the NASDAQ and S&P to also goes substantially higher the bank of Japan walks back talk of rate increases afterward royland markets so if you guys don't think the stock market has the ability to influence the powers to be think again all right when the stock market starts selling off people panic and then they like uhoh we were just kidding we're not going to really keep raising rates we look right here Disney stock down after first ever streaming profit and what it goes on to say is basically the theme parks are not getting the business they want to see we look at Disney stock today down 4.46% and I want you guys to think about that narrative as well if more people are not going to the parks and spending money isn't that also a sign that the economy is slowing down let me know your thoughts in the comment section down below we look at how the sectors finished out today the Dow was down 234 points the NASDAQ was down 171 points S&P 500 was down 40.5 points in the Russell 2000 was down 2.42 points now today the advancing issues versus the declining very disappointing out there for the Bulls we had 64.5% of issues declining on the day we come over and we look at the second and it was kind of a mixed bag right we had more red than green the ones that were in the green weren't in the green near as much as the red but you know for the most part we have a lot of lot of red out here in these markets now we come over and we look at the charts what do we want to see the dollar Index also coming up a little bit higher and one of the areas I want to watch is basically this whole swing Point candle wick to the candle body gives us a little structure breakdown point we should come back and retest that normally as a dollar gain strength that's normally not favorable for the market however ever when times get like they are now and fear really creeps into the market we can see the dollar continuing to Cascade lower now if the Dollar's going a Cascade lower why is gold not going up higher keep in mind we kind of have resistance up here in Gold if gold comes up here again I do believe that resistance level will likely be broken and we'll see gold March in substantially higher however if we start breaking the swing point right here at about 2401 watch out we're probably going to come back and retest this area over here about 2356 we breach that I'm looking down here towards about around 23 24 right in the middle of the minus Development Area we breached that then I'm looking all the way down here about 2258 if we can firm up though and we start making a rally attempt near these highs I do expect gold will probably break out make a run to the all-time highs and go ahead and complete the ABC structure to the upside we come over and look at the iwm a big nasty bearish engulfing candle today and now the question is on the daily chart are we about to start the turn the Mac the indicator right now is not suggested it nor is it suggesting it win the Dow Dow the Mac indicator looks horrible and you can see we basically gave up the ghost today we we opened way up higher only to come lower we actually went higher than the high from yesterday we didn't go high enough to fill the Gap and we closed near the lows of the session that is another bearish tone out here for the markets we look right here at the qqqs I want to bring something to your attention on the daily chart the ma the indicator looks extremely horrible on the weekly chart however the Mac the indicator is just crossed and just getting started to the downside so we could be in for trouble for the next couple weeks or even months so if you think all the selling is done we might want to think again could this be set up on the weekly left shoulder head we get a little bounce up for the right shoulder and then the finale comes in and we come cascading lower that's something that is on my radar I want to see if indeed it does develop out here on the 4our chart we see the max the indicator trying to base out showing signs that hey maybe just maybe we've gone a little bit too far too fast and we're going to try to get a little bit of a relief bounce on the way up on the one hour chart you can see the Mac the indicator almost crossed back to the downside and after hours you can see we're even lower so that ABC pattern that we had drawn out did not hit its Target and if we violate this area right here that would basically n and void that pattern we look out here on the 30 minute chart and I warned you guys about this in this morning's video I said watch out ma the indicator is near the zero line if we can't push out this area watch out this could be a recharge point for another leg lower in this market and now and after hours you can see we're already down lower so that really sets the stage that we could be looking at a double bottom pattern out here for the NASDAQ now this morning we also talked about valary high I said if we get back below it watch out we'll probably go all the way down towards a point of control value are low and then we wanted to talk about maybe even coming all the way down here to a price point of 432 and then all the way down here for the lows for that potential double bottom pattern I want to make everybody wear Apex 78 massive 80% sale off all their valuation accounts pass them as little as one day and you can also get 150k account for only $40 you get a 250k account for only $40 you get a 300K account for only $40 the promo code Mike at checkout now we come over and we look at the Futures markets you can see this morning I talked about maybe a bull flag pattern but now we've broken out through the low or is this nothing more than a trap and a good opportunity to go ahead and try to get long this market now if you do notice where did we stop at when we came up right near the high volume area if we look down to the South we do have a little bit of volume right here if we breach this volume area right down here which is anywhere from about 17,5 40 to about 17,43 we start getting below that then we most certainly are going to try to make another test for these lows and think about it anybody that's been long up in here their stop losses are probably sitting below those lows and if it is guess what we'll probably get a stop run which means we'll likely break through those lows notice we are closing below value area low which comes in at 18,000 176.50 the point of control comes in at 18, 5190 and value area high is going to come in right up here at 18,000 by 57.0 now what this tells me is either tonight tomorrow or Friday it's highly probable we make a retest of this level now the question is do we come all the way down lower first before coming back up to make that retest the jury is still out tonight on the live stream you'll see how I'm going to trade this how I'm going to trade the current levels in which we're at and last night was a fantastic night on stream if you guys want to join me make sure you're subscribed and you have the Bell notifications turned on for all because we do stream live Monday through Thursday at 8:45 p.m.
now we come over we look at the Spy real quick you can see a big nasty bearish Eng golfing candle out here today and just like the NASDAQ the Mac the indicator on the weekly just starting to cross to the downside and could this be left shoulder head some type of right shoulder over here and then we're going to go ahead and Cascade lower we look out here on the daily chart you can see the Mac the indicator screaming to the downside on the 4our chart trying to maybe firm up in the early stages of it maybe we come down make a double bottom or maybe we firm up somewhere around this area on the 1our chart we've already had the cross but now it looks like it may want to cross lower if we do come back down towards these lows I want to look and see do we have macd Divergence setting up meaning does macd make a higher low than what it did out here what it did out here earlier this week on the 30 minute chart you can see we did not complete the ABC pattern to the upside nor did we fill the Gap from the real-time session hours now we did break back below this are area over here so now we can go ahead and disregard that ABC pattern CU now it is no longer valid today similar to NASDAQ we were above valary high so if we get back below it watch out for the point of control valary low and then I talked about maybe making it all the way down here towards 51457 you know what we simply never made it down that low then as we look at the Futures markets notice what we have just kind of chug chug chug Chu knee jerk on the way back down now notice we are now back into the 4-Hour candle that made the low out here on Monday so are we going to Simply go ahead and wash substantially lower one area I do want to watch for is going to be this high volume Spike right down here somewhere in the ballpark of 5168 now if you notice right here if we bring over a book map real quick I want to show you guys we have quite a bit of contracts sitting at 5200 and then we have another bunch of contracts sitting down here at 5150 so if we look 51200 is just slightly below where we're currently at right on the edge of this minus Development Area and 51 50 is just below this high volume Spike right over here so that could act as a magnet once we've already had high volume there but now we have resting orders there we have resting liquidity there and the market may want to come down and try to grab that that liquidity notice we almost made it back down towards the point of control and this morning we talked about this pattern we talked about the a Tob equal C Tod pattern notice what we did today we came right up there we hit the level we took out the untested point of control we filled the Gap so now on the Futures markets the Gap was filled however from that point on we went ahead and cascaded lower and this morning I said will we make it up towards those Target levels basically set a trap and then come lower why did I say that yesterday was a Diaz and dog shaped profile and quite often the first way we break ends up being nothing more than a false break and then we go the opposite direction that's exactly what happened today so I would have been saying the same thing this morning if we would have broke to the downside first then we started coming back up I would have said the same thing but I would have expected a trap down here to actually run the markets up higher if we look at Value area low we are closing below it at this moment which means tonight tomorrow or Friday I expect the market to come back and test that level 52 59.75 is going to be value area low and the point of control is all the way up here at 53 36.75 the value area high will be 53 5825 so in the event that we start coming back above value area low I do want to Target the point of control however before we get to the point of control I want to watch and see do we come up into this minus development area and possibly reject back down that's going to be right there at that 5300 price point and if we look at book map I just went ahead and pull a book map up and scroll to that area look we have a lot of orders anywhere from 52.97 to 5300 which is right near that level that we just identified using volume profile now if you guys want to learn more about book Map There's a link in the description box down below and if you want to learn if you want to know if Apex is a scam and they are still paying out their Traders watch this video right here
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