저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
젠슨 황의 발언을 인용해 AI 에이전트 확산이 소프트웨어 기업을 망치기보다 수요를 늘린다고 주장. 개발자 커밋 수가 2023년 3억 건에서 2026년 초 급증(약 3배)해 생산성 향상을 근거로 제시. 토큰이 수익 단위가 되면서 AI 기업 투자 확대, 좌석 기반에서 사용량 기반 과금 전환 가능성도 언급. 2월 'SaaS 아포칼립스' 매도 때 소프트웨어주 폭락을 과도한 공포로 평가.
다듬은 글
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was attending a conference and delivered some pretty fantastic news for software stock investors. I'm going to go over the comments that Nvidia CEO made and why it's such great news for software stock investors specifically. & AI has been disrupting the software industry and it's one of the categories where large language models are helping facilitate an improvement in productivity among software developers.
Nvidia CEO talked about this saying, you know, let's let's estimate that there's 30 or 40 million software developers in the world that code for a living. This would represent most of them. So in 2023, these software developers were uploading about 300 million pieces of software updates, he calls it, right?
The pull request is when they download software, they modify it, and a commit is when they upload the software after adding their changes and workarounds. So in 2023, the number of commits was 300 million. In 2024, it was 400 million. In 2025, it was 500 million. And in the first few months of 2026, it has nearly tripled.
So we're seeing phenomenal improvement in the productivity of software developers. They're able to do more. They're able to complete more tasks. They're able to get more done in their working hours with the assistance of large language models, with the assistance of artificial intelligence. So these are highly valuable employees, right?
Software developers are some of the highest-paid people in the world. Jensen Huang estimates that they generate nearly $3 trillion worth of annual salary. These, you know, 30 or 40 million software developers generate $3 trillion worth of salary annually. And now these workers that have been paid roughly $3 trillion of salary are producing nearly three times as much output.
Three times as much output from the same salary base, right? You haven't been hearing about salaries for workers, software developers increasing. In fact, software developers have been under strain because they're worried that their jobs are at risk, so they're not going into the office asking for raises because they're being more productive.
Those increases in productivity are flowing to the company that employs them. That's where the value is flowing. So, it's instead of being fearful that the job might be under threat, Jensen Huang is saying it's causing more software engineers to be hired. Cuz if you think about the equation from the employer perspective, you've had this employee, let's say, who makes $100,000 per year, just a round figure.
If they're making $100,000 a year in 2026, but in 2026 compared to 2022, they're producing so much more value in the hours that they're working, the value that they're adding to the company is so much more. The salary is roughly the same, but the output has increased, has tripled in just the last year.
And so, when you think about it from an employee from an employer perspective, you're now interested in hiring more software engineers because you're getting more value for your dollar. And so, that's resulted in a situation now where tokens are profitable units of revenue, meaning when tokens are utilized when you use AI, it's generating revenue because you're getting output, you're getting the value of the content that's created.
And so, because tokens are now profitable, the AI companies want to build a lot more token. And so, it's changing the way we work, right? Previously, we used to launch an application, click and type, and now we replace that with explaining to the AI what we want. We open up an AI model, and we explain what we want, our intent, and the AI generates the code or uses tools and produces the necessary output.
So, instead of opening up a app or opening up one of those other applications, we just open up either, you know, Anthropic's LLM or Google's Gemini or ChatGPT, and we type in what we want, and ChatGPT or OpenAI or the agents embedded there go out and use some of these tools to complete the work that's being done.
And so, here's the important part for software stock investors. This is what was such great news coming out from Jensen Huang. He says that a lot of people are saying that, you know, AI is coming, agentic AI is coming, and therefore all the software companies are going to go out of business. And this sentiment is very true, right?
If you think about was it around February when we had that software stock sell-off? It was called the SaaS apocalypse. All these software stocks were crashing because there was fears that these companies were going to go out of business. But, I argued the opposite. I argued that they weren't going to go out of business.
And Jensen Huang is of the same mindset saying, I said it's exactly the opposite because there are going to be so many agents, the world is no longer limited by the number of people. Those agents are going to use more tools than ever. So, rather than killing software companies, Jensen Huang is saying that AI is going to help software companies, agents are going to help software companies.
Cuz you're going to have a lot more of them. You can create a lot more of them. And so, you can, let's say, create 100 agents and then direct each one of those agents to use Adobe to make thumbnails for your videos. Or create 100 agents and tell them to use a software, let's say, DocuSign to create contracts for your customers to sign.
Or whatever the use case might be. What Jensen Huang is saying is, before it was people that were going and using these softwares like Adobe and DocuSign and Salesforce and others, right? But now, since it's going to be agents utilizing a lot more of these tools, that the usage of these tools are going to increase.
Because agents will be using them, not just people. So, now you have this additional workforce that works 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, almost, that's going to be utilizing these services. So, there's going to be more use of the software, the tools that's available. Now, there might need to be a change in the pricing model, and we're already seeing some of that, right?
Going from a seat-based pricing model to maybe more of a hybrid, where you pay per seat plus some pay for usage, or maybe just entirely a consumption-based model, where it's not based on the number of seats, but it's just based on the number of times and amounts that your software is used, that's how much you get paid.
So, there's going to be more demand for software. And there's going to be an exponential increase in the number of workers if you include agents as workers, right? You don't only have human workers now, you have the AI workers, the agents. Since there's more workers utilizing the software, there's increasing demand for these services.
So, I think that's great news for software stock investors. The fact that, you know, arguably the person that knows the most about the developments in the AI industry is coming out and saying that, you know, software companies I don't think software companies are going to go out of business. In fact, I think demand for their services is going to increase.
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