저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 실제로는 금리를 인상하지 않을 것이고 시장이 반영한 인상·인하 기대는 틀렸다고 주장. 금 4,088달러·은 59달러로 급락했지만 장기 상승장은 유효하며 은은 120→200달러까지 갈 수 있다고 봄. 물가 상승(소비자기대인플레 4.6%, 무역적자 확대)과 재정·통화 팽창이 금·은을 지지한다고 강조. 비트코인은 '공기 빠진 버블'로 보고 매도 후 은 매수를 권유. 금·은 급락은 손절 물량 소화 과정이며 바닥이라는 취지.
다듬은 글
So, the markets, gold and silver, are pricing in a rate cut that will probably never happen. We are going to, that is, raise the rates. The market is pricing in a rate increase that will not happen. And so this is a great buying opportunity. Yes, both gold and silver fell this week, but they are completely different assets, and one of them is buying both gold and silver.
Bitcoin is just air coming out of a bubble. So what are the options for people who are still in Bitcoin or in the strategy — you can sell, take your money and buy gold and silver, which have also fallen. Because Bitcoin won't go back to a new high of 120,000 from 60,000, but silver could easily go from $60 to $120.
So , you will get your money back, even if you bought 120,000 bitcoins. You don't have to return this money in bitcoin. Silver may still have significant upside potential despite its recent decline, while gold may be preparing for a new record. Peter Schiff believes that the long-term bull market is far from over, despite the fact that many investors have become cautious after a sharp drop in precious metals prices.
Growing national debt, ongoing inflation, excessive money issuance, and the depreciation of the US dollar, according to Schiff, continue to create ideal conditions for significant growth in gold and silver. Schiff argues that precious metals remain one of the best ways to store wealth as confidence in fiat currencies continues to fall and central banks around the world continue to accumulate gold.
He believes this could be one of the most attractive buying opportunities in this cycle , as many investors are currently pessimistic after the recent sell-off. for more information . Gold itself, real gold, has also fallen quite a bit. In fact, gold has been trading below 4000 this week. The low for gold was 3970.
We have n't closed below 4000 yet . We've recovered a bit in the last couple of days. So, all this decline happened from Monday to Wednesday. That's how serious it was . Today, gold closed up about $62, at 4,088.60. Silver fell even more. In fact, silver fell 11.3% for the week, but closed well above its lows.
Silver fell to 55.99. That is, one cent below 56. It closed at 59.05. So, still below 60, but it was a big shake-up in the gold and silver market. I think we hit a lot of stop losses because some people were able to put them not just below the low, but below 4,000. When gold was below 4,000, it spent two days a week trading below that mark.
Um, on Wednesday and Thursday . The sentiment towards gold has become very, very negative. And it is now as oversold as it has been for many years . Moreover, I think it is now more oversold than it was overbought at the level of 5600. So I think that this negative mood and the triggering of stops is quite possible, that's all.
This is the bottom of this decline. Silver, you know, never went down to 50. I don't expect it to go down to 50. Honestly, I did n't think it would go down that low, but it did. But in the context of a bull market, silver at 59 compared to last year—that's a strong bull market. This is a big breakthrough.
Yes, silver has fallen more than 50% from its peak, but before the fall it had tripled. Silver had a rally that I haven't seen in my entire career: it went from 30 to 120 in a very short time. So the fact that it pulled back—and again , remember, the catalyst for the pullback was the war. The war began, and the principle of " buy on rumors, sell on facts" came into play, as part of the reason for the rally in precious metals was the expectation of war.
Then the war started, the market was overbought, and we saw a sell-off . But the recent next wave of decline was associated with Kevin Warsh and the perception of him as a "hawk," a reincarnation of Paul Walker. This is not true. And all these talks, all these harsh statements—just words. I'm not sure if the Fed will raise rates at all.
The market is now pricing in two or three increases, but these are quarter- point increases; Even if they do, it will be too little and too late to bring inflation down to 2% . They need much more aggressive interest rates, which is not going to happen. But I don't even know if these raises will happen .
Because if the Fed was really going to raise rates, why didn't they do it at the last meeting? They had plenty of opportunities . No, what did they do? They created these...well, not committees, but five working groups to study the issue. So, they can do nothing until they receive recommendations from this working group.
And by the way, the longer they wait for rates to rise, the less likely they are to do so. They may even lower them. And it wo n't be because inflation is decreasing. This will not happen. Inflation is rising. If they lower rates, it will only be because the economy is weak. This is because the stock market and real estate market are weak.
This is because the bond market may be weak. That's why they will lower rates. They will lower rates despite rising inflation. In fact, look at this week's news regarding consumer electronics. Significant price increases from Apple on iPhone and iPad. I know that Microsoft has raised the price of the Xbox quite a bit.
This is the largest percentage increase in prices I have ever seen. And one of the benefits, you know, was consumer electronics. Prices have in many cases been declining for many years. This compensated for the increase in prices for food, energy, and other things. So, it was a ray of light. Consumers were somewhat relieved: yes, I pay more for almost everything, but at least my electronics got cheaper.
Now they are growing faster than ever. You could say, "Well, it's because of the development of AI and because memory is so expensive now, these chips." Yes, of course. But these prices are still included in the CPI. Falling prices for consumer electronics helped lower the overall CPI. This offset some of the growth.
Now this price increase will be added to the overall growth . In fact, it will make it even bigger because of the scale of this increase. So, there is no chance that inflation will decrease. Inflation is rising. But that doesn't mean the Fed will raise rates . Again, Warsh said it was a choice, and he was right.
And I expect him to choose inflation. Yes, now he pretends that he will not choose inflation, but he will make the same choice as Greenspan, as Bernanke , as Yellen, and as Powell. They all made this choice for a reason, because if you choose no inflation , then you choose recession. Because you have to, you know, you have to put away the punch bowl.
We have to go through the process of giving up all this cheap money. We must reduce the money supply and credit. The Fed doesn't want to do this because it doesn't want a recession, it doesn't want a sharp rise in unemployment, it doesn't want a stock market or real estate crash, and it does n't want to create a new financial crisis.
This is exactly what will happen if we really want to get rid of inflation. So Warsh can talk about it all he wants . He wo n't do it. It would also force the government to be fiscally responsible. This would force the government to cut spending. Or raise taxes on the middle class. And why is Donald Trump, who spent the first part of his presidency calling Powell an idiot, a [ __ ], a [ __ ] , a fool—too late, my friend—for refusing to lower interest rates...What will he do if his successor raises rates?
Something Powell didn't do. Powell simply took a wait-and-see stance . And Trump constantly attacked him. So, politically, I don't see how this can happen. Many investors are wondering whether the upside potential of gold and silver has been exhausted amid the recent price decline. Peter Schiff, meanwhile, believes that nothing has changed in the big picture.
Gold and silver continue to be supported by strong economic fundamentals. Despite growing uncertainty about speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, public debt continues to rise, inflation remains high, and public trust in central banks is gradually declining. Expectations about Federal Reserve interest rates and future monetary policy have been a major factor in recent market volatility.
However, inflation persists despite rising interest rates, and a large budget deficit, rising government spending, and a high cost of living are further putting pressure on the economy. Schiff argues that gold and silver remain attractive in this context because they can protect investors from economic uncertainty, inflation and currency depreciation.
content. We sincerely appreciate your support. Greenspan's arrogance was that he believed he could use his own judgment to create a de facto gold standard. And that's exactly what he said he did. When he testified before Congress and was asked about the gold standard, he said that he used gold as his main indicator.
He said: if gold is worth $400 an ounce, it means my policy is too soft and I have to raise rates. If gold falls below 300, I am acting too harshly and have to lower my rates. So, he argued that although officially we weren't on the gold standard, unofficially we were, because he used gold to know if he had set interest rates correctly.
Because how else can you find out about this? You just can't guess. You need some kind of market indicator. And Greenspan said the best indicator of whether interest rates are too high or too low is the price of gold. Well, if 4,000 meant he was being too soft, I mean, if gold at $400 meant the Fed should raise rates, what does gold at $4,000 mean now?
This means they really need to raise them. They're way behind schedule, right? According to Greenspan's criteria, the Fed needs, you know, massive rate hikes, quantitative easing. So he was the best at understanding the situation, but he still made these mistakes. He still chose inflation over the alternative .
When the stock market crashed in 1987, Greenspan chose inflation, right? So, if a guy like Greenspan, a gold-supporter, chooses inflation at a critical moment , why should Powell be any different ? He won't be. And so the markets, gold and silver, are pricing in rate cuts that will probably never happen.
We will have , I mean , rate increases. The market is taking into account rate increases, which will not happen. And so this is a great buying opportunity. Yes, both gold and silver fell this week, but they are completely different assets, and one of them is worth buying—gold and silver, and Bitcoin is just air coming out of the bubble.
So what options do people who are still in Bitcoin or in the strategy have? You can sell, take your money and buy gold and silver, which have also gone down in price. Because Bitcoin won't rise back to $ 120,000 from $60,000, but silver could easily go from $60 to $120. So, you will get your money back even if you bought 120,000 bitcoins.
You don't have to get this money back in bitcoin. You can get out of Bitcoin, record a tax loss, pocket it , and maybe even file a lawsuit if... well, if you just bought Bitcoin, I don't know, but if you bought the strategy, you can. But you take your tax loss, buy some silver, and when silver rises back to its old high, you 'll be back on your feet, right?
Instead of losing more money. And I don't think silver will stop there. I think silver will continue to grow for a long time. I think 120 will just be a stop on the way to 200 over time. So you can recoup your losses from crypto and " fool's gold" by investing in the real thing. The Fed is still creating inflation.
How are you going to fight what you create? So again , this is all just talk. We need to look at what the Fed does, not what they say, because their words are worthless . They are trying to buy some trust with harsh rhetoric. Because, you know, the Fed also has high hopes for expectations. They believe that inflation is a function of expectations, and if they get people to expect less inflation, they will get less inflation.
By the way, we received data on consumer sentiment, and consumers expect inflation next year to be at 4.6%. That's well above 2%, but lower than the 4.6% they expected last month. And the actual indicator, the consumer confidence index, is 49.5. So, below 50—that's still a very low reading, but not as bad as last week's 48.9.
In fact, I think the worst economic news today was our goods trade deficit, which was 105.8 billion, which is much higher than expected. It seems like it was a 28% increase from last month for the trade deficit. And this happened due to a 5.4% drop in exports and an increase in imports. Imports increased by 3.6%.
So, this is the worst goods trade deficit since March 2025 . Trump promised that his tariffs would reduce our trade deficit. But the trade deficit is growing. This is the largest merchandise trade deficit in over a year, and it is moving in the wrong direction. And we lost twice. Imports up, exports down.
According to Peter Schiff, the current price of gold is a clear signal that the Federal Reserve is far behind in the fight against inflation. He quotes Alan Greenspan, the former chairman of the Fed, who viewed gold as a key indicator of how tight or loose monetary policy was. Schiff argues that while a gold price of $400 per ounce once signaled the need for the Fed to raise interest rates, today's significantly higher prices indicate that monetary policy is still too loose and inflationary pressures remain unabated.
Additionally , Schiff believes that investors should look at the bigger economic picture, not just short-term market fluctuations. He emphasizes that as precious metals continue to be supported by rising government debt, weakening currencies, and persistent inflation, the recent decline in gold and silver prices does not change the long-term trend .
Schiff states that silver, in particular, has significant upside potential, possibly reaching previous highs and rising much higher in the future. He believes that investors who are aware of the long-term implications of inflation and monetary policy can take advantage of the current decline in precious metals prices.
Schiff believes investors should focus more on the real actions of central banks than on their words, as the Fed is still trying to manage an economy struggling with high debt levels and slowing growth. .
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