Raamdeo Agarwal mantra for investing | raamdeo agrawal | unique earning strategy and experience

요약 보기

좋은 기업(great/good)은 높은 ROE를 장기간 유지해 복리로 성장하므로 장기 보유가 유리하다. 나쁜 기업(gruesome)은 자본비용을 밑도는 수익으로 계속 증자·투자를 요구해 '자본의 블랙홀'이 되며, 싸 보여도 투자자 손실을 만든다. 예시로 네슬레(ROE 25%→135%)와 HDFC은행을 좋은 기업, 타타텔레서비스(TTML)를 나쁜 기업으로 든다. 주가 수익은 결국 기업 이익을 넘지 못하므로 주가 움직임보다 기업 본질에 집중해야 한다. 시장 문제의 대부분은 싼 나쁜 기업을 포트폴리오에 담는 데서 비롯된다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Buffett wrote what are the three types of businesses I think this is I think this is the best piece written by him in annual reports in 2007 annual reports uh Page 6 and 7 if you go he has written what kind of companies he likes and what are the trades he looks for in those companies and uh he termed it there are only three types of businesses in the world great good gruesome and these are like three Savings bank account A Bank savings bank account where you put your money at a high yield say 20% interest somebody's giving so that's a very good return if you are getting your business earning 20% it's very good so that's a good company it's not a bad it's not a great company great company is a company where you put 100 rupees he gives it 20% first year second year it gives 25% third year gives 35% then 40% then 50% 100% 150% you look at nesle nesle in 20012 it used used to on about 25% return on Equity by the time it was 2011 it was 135% you go and see how it has improve year after year that's what makes Nest a special company so Rising Roe so great and good was very clearly understood what is a gruesome real challenge for the investor in the market is to throw out gruesome businesses now what is gruesome a bad business a bad business a business which actually breaks the capital if the cost of capital is 10% it earns 5 6% or actually incur loss but even that is not a problem because it could be just a historical thing it could be Misfortune of the business that it is not doing well but the problem is the management is mandated to grow the business which is very bad business so what happens is you are earning 100 crores by deploying say 2,000 crores now you want to double the profit from 100 crores to 200 cres what do you need another 2,000 crores to earn 100 crores you need 2,000 CR more so it becomes a bottomless pit of capital and everybody gets sucked in because these companies are avable very cheap and most of the retail uh guys they get sucked into buying these stocks and they stay on because they're not making losses return on Equity is very low valuation is very cheap what more you want you're buying cheap you can't go wrong but it doesn't make money because the company itself is not making money one other thing is I don't know if anybody knows how much money you make in the market from a stock how much money you make finally you make as much as the company makes please understand this if compan is not listed you start with a CR rupees company and you make 1,000 crores over a period of time at the end of it you'll get th000 crores period so you cannot make more money than what the company makes people think that they can make more money than what the company makes and that's why they don't bother about what the company is doing they bother about what's happening in the stock market so fundamentally we have to understand we have to buy great businesses who are going to make lot of money not only now in next 10 years 20 years 30 years 40 years and that's what we do and that's what has this this particular study if you see we give example of nestle as the great company HDFC Bank as a good bank good good company and I hope there's nobody from tatas tatat tell Maharashtra limited as the bad company when I wrote as a Bad Company T maharash lied it was making losses of 60 crores per quarter do you know how much losses they making now after 78 years they're making very Faithfully every quarter they make a loss of 165 per quarter they have lost about 12 13 14,000 crores they still losing and now they want to expand they want to put another 10 20,000 crores to expand the losses and we still have a quotation of 7 10 12 rupees because it is called Tata you can't go wrong buying Telecom company from taras isn't it so you have to be very clear who is going to make money just the name doesn't matter so difference between in fact you should pay to the manager for just getting you into the good companies good and great companies and keeping you out from the Bad Company 99% of the problem in the stock market is because of the bad companies in your portfolio and they enter your portfolio purely because they are cheap and then they come and stay permanently and destroy your entire happiness