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버크셔 해서웨이는 저평가 상태이며 워런 버핏의 자사주 매입(3분기 70억 달러, 올해 200억 달러 이상)은 강한 신뢰의 신호라고 주장한다. 3분기 실적 하락(66%)은 투자 포트폴리오 이익이 작년 320억 달러에서 50억 달러로 줄어든 탓이며, 언론 보도가 편향됐다고 지적한다. 영업 세전이익은 3분기 약 5% 증가, 연초 대비 약 18% 증가했고 유일하게 나빠진 부분은 허리케인 아이다 등에 따른 보험 인수손실(약 4억→7억 달러)이다. 현금 보유액은 1,400억 달러 이상으로 시장 급락 시 매수 여력이 충분하다고 평가한다. 버크셔 시가총액은 약 6,500억 달러이고 연간 약 500억 달러의 이익 창출력이 있어 PER 약 13배로 저평가됐다고 본다. 13배 기준 이익수익률은 약 7%로, 자사주 매입이 이 수익률을 실현시킨다고 설명한다. 5년 내 PER 18~20배 재평가와 연 2.5~7.5% 이익 성장을 가정하면 상승 여력은 약 140%로 추정하며, 이는 B주 약 700달러, A주 약 100만 달러 수준이다. 보수적 가정(PER 축소, 성장률 2.5%)에서도 중간 한 자릿수 수익을 예상한다. 다만 이는 가정에 기반한 가상의 프레임워크이며, 사업 문제 발생 시 하락 위험이 크다고 경고한다. 진행자는 시장 전반이 과열됐다고 본다. 진행자가 별도로 언급한 다른 저평가 종목은 장부가 대비 30% 할인 거래 중이며 상승 여력이 약 250%로 추정된다고 소개한다.
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berkshire hathaway just reported their third quarter earnings results and they had this very interesting news development effectively where warren buffett was making one of his largest purchases for the year over seven billion dollars in this one stock over 20 billion dollars year-to-date we'll talk about what stock he's been buying in otherwise a market that's not finding a lot of bargains and also talk about berkshire hathaway's valuation and how berkshire's a shares could be worth over one million dollars in the next five years potentially over seven hundred dollars or around seven hundred dollars for the b shares we'll talk how to you know think about those potential valuations in the years ahead those are you know a hypothetical framework if this is your first time tuning in my name is daniel you're watching unrivaled investing a no hype mission focus channel trying to find you exceptional companies and unrivaled investments let's dive right in so that way you can understand and first in full disclosure publication i did not own stock in berkshire hathaway even though when you look at those those prices and these values though we're going to be talking about this video maybe i should and so diving in so first earlier today berkshire reported their third quarter 21 results and the news publications like the wall street journal reported how earnings fell 66 what a joke i mean i personally think this reporting widely misses the mark um the reality is that their earnings were 60 66 percent lower only because their investment portfolio only gained five billion dollars during the quarter versus 32 billion dollars last year and as a lot of folks remember yeah last year during the third quarter you had this dramatic recovery from the the covid panic um that resulted in a lot of stocks dropping and then you had this massive intervention by the the central banks so that way stocks started shooting up during the third quarter last year so yeah not surprising that the investment portfolio didn't do as well during the third quarter this year but even this is deceptive calling out just this quarter uh given that berkshire's portfolio has increased by 38 billion dollars year-to-date versus only 1.4 billion dollars year-to-date last year so when you look for the nine months ended september last year it only increased by 1.4 billion whereas this year it's actually doing much better so this type of one-sided reporting you know with that type of headline figure about a 60 66 66 drop just reflects in my opinion how berkshire is sort of not loved right now and sort of outer favor with the market you can see these are many of berkshire's top holdings with apple being one of the largest 120 billion dollar valuation in terms of what what apple is relative to berkshire's portfolio and now the reality is that berkshire reported very solid earnings in my opinion you know excluding investment fluctuations their operating business pre-tax earnings grew five percent from around seven billion to seven point three billion during the third quarter and grew eighteen percent year-to-date so during the nine months uh 2021 from around 20.3 billion to 24.1 billion this considers all their operating segments the only thing really worse during the quarter was underwriting losses which jumped uh from around 400 million last year during the third quarter to around 700 million in response to hurricane ida and other natural disasters now berkshire's cash hoard continues to grow and now represents over 140 billion dollars given that they only need about 20 to 30 billion sort of as backup for super catastrophe insurance purposes you know think these mega catastrophes and that is part of berkshire hathaway's special advantage is that they can write catastrophic insurance that other players just can't do and part of it's because they have this willingness to sit on 20 to 30 billion dollars in cash holy smokes but you back that out and look at their cash balances and they they have well over 100 billion dollars 100 billion dollars in liquid buying powder liquid buying powered a lot of dry powder so that way the next time there's any sort of market disturbance if the federal reserve is not there to step up berkshire hathaway is going to be in a great position with that hundred billion dollars that they could put to work so what's the security that he got that he bought for around 7 billion plus uh during the most recent quarter and over 20 billion dollars that he's bought uh year to date you know once again we're talking about berkshire hathaway uh you know what is warren buffett buying and the answer is he's buying more of himself he's buying more berkshire hathaway stocks so he's been buying back stock to the tune of seven billion dollars during the third quarter over 20 billion dollars here to date so this raise the question is is berkshire cheap because if warren buffett sees a lot of value in it you know does that potentially mean that there's an attractive risk reward for you as well let's do a quick plug to understand if this is uh your first time tuning in once again you're watching unrivaled investing please make a point of hitting that subscribe button and if you're interested in following along with my personal financial journey go to unraveledinvesting.com where each month i call out potential multibaggers as well as my personal portfolio we also have an exclusive community dedicated to learning and trying to find exceptional companies on discord so once again if you're interested go to unrivalinvesting.com click join the journey and if you're enjoying videos like this please make sure to hit that subscribe button and so to think about berkshire currently it's around 650 billion dollar market cap the diversified business operations which mostly benefit from inflation uh given that they have pricing power so you know sees candy raised prices another five seven percent this year you know that's they're going to be able to do that because they have these very powerful brands um so these businesses mostly benefit from insurance they're up around 18 year-to-date that's their operating businesses so far this year now it's not always you know great like this you know over a multi-year period it might be you know mid single digits five maybe seven percent over time that you can get that growth but still these businesses these operating businesses generate around 25 billion dollars in after-tax earnings power this includes burlington northern santa fe this major railroad but this doesn't give any credit to their massive float and cash hoard which is around 500 billion dollars in cash treasury securities equities fixed income and so if you assume this massive pool of capital can compound at around 5 after tax in the decade ahead and maybe that's low maybe that's high depending on what you think you know risk reward looks like for let's say apple which is a big component of that 500 billion that's you know between that's around 150 billion of that 500 billion you know that's if you if you think they can do around five percent after tax on that 500 billion that's another 25 billion annually so you think of their their cash and capital generating around 25 billion and then you think about their operating businesses doing another 25 billion this is both in after tax figures and so all in you're thinking nearly 50 billion dollars in annualized earnings power and around a 650 billion dollar market cap now that's a very undemanding valuation of 13 times once again if you want to have a broader understanding for berkshire sort of a deeper dive i previously did a video sort of a recap of all their business segments so you can check that out if you're interested meanwhile he's using so warren buffett he's looking at this significant earnings power the significant let's say 50 billion dollars in terms of earnings power and he's going to use the free cash flow that's generated to buy back stock and given that the stock currently trades at the equivalent of around 13 times that's going to be the equivalent of around seven percent plus per year so assume you know so when you think about seven percent a year because that's one divided by 13 is is a seven percent plus so that means if you just own stock and they don't grow at all and they just keep doing this each year that means your ownership in the pie is going to be compounding at seven percent that's really interesting that starts smelling interesting when you start setting a sort of hurdle of seven percent you start saying well wait a second let's layer on some additional goodies like organic earnings growth and maybe some multiple expansion you know you get maybe you know two and a half to seven and a half percent organic earnings growth over the next five years and maybe you get a little bit of multiple expansion from 13 times to maybe 18 times maybe 20 times so if you start thinking about these things in the range that i'm penciling out saying high of 18 times organic earnings growth of let's say seven and a half percent over the next five years then you're penciling out upside of 140 percent in the next five years this would imply about a 700 price for the berkshire b stock and around a million dollars a little over a million dollars for the a shares which is just sort of mind-blowing when you think about a single stock trading for a million dollars the a shares even assuming fairly conservative assumptions for their future growth and even multiple contraction you know you're sort of penciling out a reasonable risk reward you know like in my low scenario where i assume this multiple contraction and let's say only two and a half percent growth i'm still penciling out a mid single digit return just given the fact that if you do have these headwinds like a multiple contraction like effectively people saying hey this business is only worth 10 times versus 13 times the reality is if you're buying back a significant amount of stock each year that really helps you out a significant amount and so looking at this i'm thinking wow this you know it's not crazy upside like 300 400 upside but from a risk reward perspective it's really not bad and one ought to argue is a very frothy market so but once again this is a hypothetical framework of course stock prices can go way higher and way lower you know this is sort of assuming hey if things work out if operations succeed if for some reason berkshire hathaway starts falling apart um you know let's say you know the there's there's dramatic problems in different subsidiaries and their business starts declining for some reason first of all there's no indication of that happening right now but if you were to see something like that then i would expect worse downside and on the flip side if their organic growth rate and you have a period of high inflation resulting in a higher organic growth rate because they can pass on this higher inflation to the customers because they have these powerful brands um you know that could mean maybe i'm even being conservative with that 140 upside so that's something to think about here i i find it pretty interesting looking at berkshire stock it's not as cheap as the most recent potential multi-bagger that i called out for my unrivaled investing journey subscribers it's also this this exclusive company is also a company that has beaten the market indices for several decades um similar to berkshire hathaway beating the market indices for several decades this other one though trades at 30 discount to book value and so if i pencil out maybe just 5 10 15 compounding in the ensuing years which is sort of management schools then you're looking at instead of like 140 upside which is sort of the high side that i'm penciling out for berkshire you're looking at you know here in this situation looking at something that maybe is closer to 250 percent upside so something that strikes me as a little bit more interesting in this environment but either way looking at berkshire warren buffett buying back his own stock clearly a vote of confidence saying hey i think this is cheap i think it's definitely worthwhile to sort of scratch your chin scratch you know pop the eyebrow think about it and try to figure out maybe maybe berkshire hathaway is appropriate for my own personal investment journey definitely something to think about in what i'd argue is a very frothy environment if this video has been helpful for you think about berkshire hathaway and the latest 7 billion purchase by warren buffett please make a point of hitting that thumbs up hit that subscribe button thanks so much for watching
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