저자: Neil · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거의 Daily Journal이 알리바바 지분을 두 배로 늘렸다는 소식을 근거로 알리바바에 대한 강세 관점을 펼치며, 5년 내 400~500달러 가능성을 제시하지만 중국 리스크도 인정한다. 지분 변화: Daily Journal이 알리바바 지분을 약 82% 늘려 포트폴리오의 약 20%를 차지, 평균 단가 약 190달러. 회사 규모는 수억 달러로 버크셔(수천억 달러)와 다르며, 멍거 순자산 대비 약 4,500만 달러 수준의 작은 베팅. 해석: 멍거도 틀릴 수 있고, 이 베팅이 그의 재산에 큰 영향은 없음. 버핏/버크셔가 매수하지 않은 것은 이해충돌 회피 때문일 수 있음. 밸류에이션: 코어 커머스 매출 성장률을 내년 약 30%에서 5년간 10~15%로 둔화, 장기 멀티플 중간~저위 10대 중반으로 가정. 이 경우 현재 대비 하락 20%~상승 90% 범위. 클라우드·금융 등 기타 자산을 더하면 5년 후 400~500달러 가능성 제시. 뉴스 환경: 바이든 행정부의 중국 관계 개선 움직임이 중국 주식 심리에 도움이 될 수 있다고 봄. 리스크: 중국 부동산(에버그란데) 부채, 전력 제한, 정책 리스크, VIE 구조, 멍거 판단 오류 가능성. 포지션: 본인은 홍콩 주식 보유, 평균 대비 약 35% 하락 상태. 알리바바는 중국 주식 바스켓(포트폴리오의 약 25%) 중 작은 비중(4~5%)이며, 다른 중국 종목에 더 높은 확신. 전략: 악재가 나올 때마다 투자 논리 재점검, 헤지는 동적 가격 기준으로 실행. 홍보: 유료 구독 커뮤니티 및 월간 종목 발표 안내 포함.
다듬은 글
in could today we're talking about alibaba stock regular viewers know that i do own shares in alibaba i own the hong kong shares which i bought with the brokerage platform interactive brokers that's what i use and i personally bought it before i even found out before it was disclosed that charlie munger one of the world's greatest investors also bought so that means we're both been in a little bit of pain in terms of alibaba watching the stock continue to go down down about 35 percent personally on my own cost basis on alibaba and uh so it makes folks wonder like well wait a second you know how much further can it drop and you know what what's charlie munger doing arguably one of the greatest investors and here it is just today it came out came out early that the daily journal company a company that he oversees that manages a few hundred million dollars of portfolio they doubled their stake in alibaba so what's what's that potentially mean for shareholders is there an important read through or anything that investors can consider and so i'm going to talk about that in just one second and it is it is important to remember that this is you know what what we're talking about here is daily journal this is not berkshire hathaway you know this is the daily journal holdings which is a couple hundred million dollars this is not berkshire hathaway which is a couple hundred billion dollars with a b so this is much much smaller company that charlie munger has discretion over it's also worth calling like look 45 million dollars relative to charlie munger's net worth of several billion this is you know very small stakes for him that said he is ultimately putting about 20 percent of daily journal into this now also worth caveating david daley journal is an over capitalized business this is a company that has significantly more cash than they need to operate on this so what are what are some of my thoughts you know as we consider seeing that they actually recently doubled their stake in alibaba that's the key element doubling their stake increasing by 82 percent now about 20 of the portfolio with an average cost around 190.
so what are my thoughts as i look at it first of all yeah it's it's nice to you know admire someone like charlie munger i mean he's he's personally been a life hero as i've you know read and watched him throughout the years i used to be going to the west coast meetings many years ago now it's the daily journal meetings and it's it's worth understanding look he's still human it's very possible that he could be wrong and so it's worth calling that out and that's there's lots of reasons that you know you could be wrong with alibaba you could be wrong on the company itself where you say hey this is just too murky maybe the capital allocation policies are just too hard you know maybe you're worried about the vie structure i personally don't think that that would play out just because i don't think china is looking to blow up you know foreign shareholders at the end of the day they want to be a global superpower requiring the respect of global markets uh there's also the risk that like wait a second neil what's the risk that you know the chinese economy slows down i talked about evergrand and sort of here it is this potential debt blow up in the construction sector maybe that'll slow down i even talked about you know blackouts in china that'll definitely hit the business that's more of a short-term impact so here it is these are all things that charlie munger has seen he's even seen you know the ccp wipe out a full sector wipe out the for-profit education sector and here it is knowing that he still increased the stake sort of seeing it so it is possible that he's he's just wrong um you know that's possible i'm just wrong you know with with my stake in alibaba so that is worth understanding like look everyone's human you can make mistakes it's also possible that like hey folks like to joke like yeah you know it's easier to yolo when you're 97 years old you know you live only once uh type of investing the reality is this isn't a game changer for his own wealth it's not a game changer even for daily journal it's 20 of their portfolio uh and so that that is worth understanding uh you know but but look that key risk that he's wrong is absolutely still there uh it is worth sort of thinking about that like you know what this probably means that berkshire warren buffett's berkshire hathaway probably isn't buying because you know charlie munger would always like to steer way clear of any sort of perceived conflicts of interest so i don't think that he would be buying for this vehicle that he helps control where berkshire might be interested so that is i would argue a counter point where he can point out all these bullish points about alibaba but warren buffett is probably seeing the equally bearish points and that's why he hasn't pulled the trigger so that is worth sort of understanding as you think about it or lastly it's possible like hey maybe he is right maybe he is you know calling something out where he says oh i'm seeing the same upside that i've talked about in some of these videos sort of penciling out the rough valuation thinking about oh you know you know for multi-baggers i talk about companies that don't think this is the type of setup that can go thousands of percent but i think if things work out you are looking at a couple hundred percent that's how i'm thinking about it still um and so let's actually talk about that valuation framework you know as as we actually you know do do a little bit more of a dive and i've done deeper dives um in terms of looking at at their business in the past but you know looking at it look they've grown very nicely in the years prior i'm penciling out you know effectively around 30 growth this next year uh which is a significant deceleration from what they posted so far i'm assuming margins well below the let's say the long term 40 margins now they are investing in a lot of things so this is well below their current margin structure saying hey you know they're investing in lower margin businesses i'm assuming their growth continues to decelerate significantly looking at the over the next five years saying 10 to 15 percent you know annualized revenue growth and a let's say a mid to low teens multiple five years out this is just for their core commerce segment this is not for their entire business just one segment effectively representing 80 percent to 180 of their current market cap saying hey just if this core commerce business has these sort of parameters of let's say mid teens low teens growth you know mid teens low teens earnings multiple five years out from now you're effectively saying down 20 or upside of 90 when you start layering on other core assets even the assets that folks are saying wait a second aren't you worried about ali cloud and you know potentially having to you know transfer less data from the state-owned enterprises to ali cloud or and financial not growing as quickly because their algorithm you know sort of gets blown up maybe on financial takes like an 80 haircut looking at this you're still layering on assets even with the draconian look and i think you're still potentially you know looking at a stock that's 400 500 dollar stock for alibaba stock potentially five years out and this is you know layering in the core commerce plus everything else if you're just focusing on core commerce you could still pencil out a reasonable you know risk reward when you're looking at this and it's not only that i mean looking at the news has also started turning a little bit more favorable we're just earlier today talking about president biden effectively looking to warm up the relationship with china if they start meeting us halfway with prior trade agreements effectively if they step up on let's say buying u.s exports yeah you know this relationship can can improve so maybe that alone could help the sentiment with chinese equities so what am i personally doing i'm going to do a quick plug here where once again if you go to unrivalinvesting.com first week of the month i i call out you know you decide to join you know the unrivaled investing journey the first week of the month i call out you know my full portfolio by the end of the month i call it a potential multi-bagger and on a daily basis i'm interacting with the unrivaled nation with our exclusive discord you know uh community that uh talking on on a daily basis talking about you know ideas looking at companies uh sharing ideas and so as we look you know what what am i personally doing with this i i personally own a basket of chinese stocks it's about 25 of my portfolio cost now it's about 20 it has been a haircut this has gone against me alibaba has already mentioned is already down about 35 for my cost basis i'm pretty sure around that around that level i own the hong kong shares as i've already talked about and so every time i see bad news it's about revisiting my thesis making sure you know hey could i still pencil out an attractive risk reward just based on let's say you know slower growth maybe it's just because you know there's a slowdown in construction or or what have you or just tougher policies could i be wrong could charlie munger be wrong of course we could be wrong so it's also that as regular viewers know i also an unrivaled nation i have talked about hedging before that's more based on dynamic pricing that i look at and it is worth calling out you know as as i'm looking at this that alibaba is just one part of my basket of chinese equities that's about 20 of my portfolio i actually have higher conviction bets on two other companies alibaba i think is my smallest of or relatively smaller position of my chinese bets because one is like a company that trades below liquidation value that's growing at a good clip a behemoth of a company trading below liquidation value and another is a company that's more aligned i'd argue with the ccp where it hasn't had these fines if anything it's sort of been called best in class has been taking share and so those are the types of things where yeah i recognize their risks with alibaba so that's the reason why it's a part of my portfolio it's probably down to like four or five percent but the bigger part of my chinese bets are these other ones that i've called out exclusively for unrivaled investing journey subscribers you know i do you know as i mentioned earlier i call out different potential multibaggers each month it's not always china that was you know that is a set part of my portfolio you know more recently i've been focusing on the health care sector as well for those folks that are saying wait a second i'm concerned about the economy potentially turning i want to own things that might grow regardless of the economy that's generally the healthcare sector so i have called out a few things recently one's a cheap company trading below you know like a very reasonable free cash flow multiple just super cheap and the other is hyper growth so that's that's for unrivaled investing journey subscribers and if this video has been helpful for you talking about charlie munger doubling down on alibaba you know making it now like a 45 million dollar bet if this has been helpful for you if you enjoyed learning about it please make a point of hitting that subscribe hit that thumbs up button thank you so much for watching
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