저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
브리지워터 공동CIO 그렉 젠슨의 블룸버그 인터뷰 내용을 소개하며, 연준·재정정책이 시장을 주도하는 현 상황에서 현금흐름 좋은 consumer staples를 매수하고 미 국채를 공매도(헤지)하는 전략이 유효하다는 취지의 영상. 핵심 주장: 초저금리와 대규모 재정이 성장과 자산시장을 떠받치고 있으나 장기화 시 인플레이션·버블·통화가치 하락이라는 부작용이 나타난다. 연준이 예상보다 빨리 긴축할 경우 유동성 의존 자산(적자 성장주)이 취약해진다. 포트폴리오 방향: 브리지워터는 미국 지수(S&P) 비중을 줄이고 신흥국 ETF를 늘리는 중이며, 보유 종목은 Walmart, P&G, J&J, Coca-Cola, Pepsi, Costco, McDonald's, Alibaba 등 현금흐름 우량주다. 이들은 배당/현금수익률 2~5%를 제공하는 반면 국채 금리는 2% 미만이라 국채 숏으로 금리 상승 리스크를 헤지하는 구조로 설명됨. 성장주 관련: 캐시 우드 ARK 포트폴리오 등 성장주 펀드가 올해 부진하다고 언급. 진행자는 수익성 낮은 성장기업의 밸류에이션 압박을 지적하고, 개인적으로는 잠재 멀티배거와 현금 보유가 충분한 성장주를 찾는다고 말함. 리스크: 경기침체 자체보다 연준의 긴축 속도와 인플레이션·통화가치 하락이 주요 리스크로 제시됨. 델타 변이 등 경기 악화는 오히려 완화 기대로 이어질 수 있다는 시각. 진행자는 유료 뉴스레터(unrivaledinvesting.com) 및 디스코드 커뮤니티를 홍보함.
다듬은 글
a no-hype mission focused just earlier today greg jensen the co-chief investment officer of bridgewater the behemoth one of the largest hedge funds in the world managing tens of billions of dollars gave an interview at bloomberg and he revealed effectively bridgewater's playbook how they're investing right now to understand okay these are the bets we're making and this is the reason why we're doing it i want to do a video that sort of peels it back a little bit so that way you can understand why bridgewater is positioned the way they are and how it could potentially affect your investment portfolio how you should think about growth stocks let's say versus the consumer staples because there's a real sort of divergence going on right now and how investors should consider it let me dive right into it where here it is greg jensen co-chief investment officer had an interview on bloomberg i'll leave the link for that below so revealing their playbook in the interview and to understand the current setup as he discusses in the interview you need to understand a couple of things and this is this is sort of understanding the top down perspective which is one the fed and fiscal policy is driving the markets right now that really shouldn't come as a surprise we have extreme fed and fiscal policies really really low interest rates and incredible deficits that is what's driving a strong economy very high gdp growth or at least tied to nominal gdp growth um and very low interest rates you know treasury yields across the board below two percent but the problem with this is you can't do it for for too long it's sort of like giving a sickly patient just crazy amounts of steroids or you know heavy duty you know medications where longer term you should expect some negative consequences so he starts saying like look there are generally three negative consequences that the federal reserve has to be mindful of eventually the federal reserve has to respond where the three main things are inflation bubbles and you're starting to see both of these things you know inflation over five percent this year bubbles mean you're talking about nfts of pictures the jpegs of rocks digital rocks going for hundreds of thousands of dollars and you're seeing currency risks eventually where effectively you have a devaluation of a currency because folks say wait a second why do i own this if i'm at negative real yields so then he you know sort of posed with the question of like well okay so what are investors supposed to do if let's say you're buying stocks what what's the bigger risk is it a cyclical downturn or is it more that it's monetary tightening because of these conditions of let's say higher inflation or you know effectively a weaker us dollar need to consider that so how are they playing it and what's interesting is you look at their most recent you know financial update in terms of their own portfolio and effectively they're just layering into these cash cows um you know they're they they greg jensen has effectively said look the world is over owned um you know the u.s indices and so that's why you know he's you see them trimming their their s p they're making more uh bets effectively on emerging market etfs but the us stocks that they are owning are these incredible cash cows it's just companies that have a ton of free cash flow and so that means their valuation is going to be backed up by a cash yield so effectively you're getting a couple percent return as a minimum because that cash is coming in whether or not it's a walmart proctor gamble johnson johnson coca-cola pepsi costco mcdonald's alibaba full disclosure i own alibaba stock as i've talked about before and so this is a really interesting perspective like wait a second this is this is a consumer staples bet now why is it that you would want to own potentially consumer staples in this environment versus let's say growth stocks and it is worth calling out that a lot of the more growth oriented portfolios have really struggled so far this year i think several of the kathy wood arc portfolios they're either down or just flat for the year and so it's sort of a question of like what's going on here what sort of this phase transition that you're seeing with the market and i think it's sort of these big trends that greg jensen's talking about here and so he's you know in terms of that big core risks he talked in the interview i'm i'm sharing the key clip here where he said the biggest arbitrage you can sort of take in the world right now is take what the policy makers are giving you they're giving you incredibly low interest rates relative to nominal gdp and so if you can hedge that if you can essentially take in cash flows they'll move something like nominal gdp like these cash cows like procter and gamble like johnson johnson coca-cola these companies should move in step they should have pricing power they should move with the general economy so he's saying if you can take those cash flows get a yield from that and move something like nominal gdp so they're growing along with gdp and then hedge the risk being short treasuries or other instruments that allow you to hedge the main risk first of all talking about hedging treasury treasuries that really you know got got my mind thinking wow wait a second that's he's not the first one to talk about that i've also called out you know dr michael bury his portfolio on how he's increasingly short u.s treasuries for via shorting tlt and so i'm thinking man this is the general direction you're looking at which is as the fed pulls support you you'll see higher interest rates and the reason why you know greg jensen you know i talked about what are the two key risks and how does how does the market what potentially drive stocks lower you know he said one is you either have a market downturn or two you have the fed tightening he's actually not that worried about the the general cyclical downturn he's not worried about a cycle downturn in general like a recession what you could expect because his view is look the federal reserve is itching to be as aggressive as possible you have incredible fiscal stimulus so it's not like they're looking to pull the punch bowl they're eager to do it so his his view is if you have a traditional tightening by the economy pulling back just effectively things slowing down that is actually a sort of like a a reasonable scenario for risk on assets because then the fed will be like oh we got to just we got to keep policy loose and so like the perspective of the delta variant for example if that leads to a worsening economy then in theory bad news is good news where you have more stimulus and you have more federal reserve you know incredibly aggressive radical policies so his view isn't actually that you have a cyclical downturn his concern is that you have these negative consequences like inflation like bubbles like currency devaluation and you get enough pressure there that forces the fed to tighten faster than investors expect and that's that's exactly what he talks about here where the main risk is that the fed has to tighten faster than people expect the liquidity that has supported asset markets and created bubbles will have to be withdrawn the assets that require constant liquidity infusion because they're not profitable that's where we'd be nervous and this is a key point this is exactly part of what i think is the key liquidity trends that are driving growth stocks to sort of have a meh return this year versus you still look at the s p still marching ahead step by step and it's because you have the consumer staple saying hey folks are willing to buy that now they recognize it might go down those consumer staples might go down but they're going to hedge it they're going to offset that long portfolio of these consumer staples they're going to hedge it with a super short bet on treasuries that's the key point and that's a similarity to what you're seeing with michael bury you know effectively saying we could you know and this is this was his prior point is that hedge being short treasuries or other instruments that allow you to hedge the main risk of the fed having to tighten so you own cash flowing assets owned companies with a lot of free cash flow so you have let's say a shareholder yield two three four five percent versus treasuries sub two percent so if they start going you know if rates start going higher and bonds start dropping in price you're hedged you're hedging that core risk and that that means they must have huge short positions effectively against u.s treasuries or really leveraged positions against treasuries which is really interesting to consider because that's that's once again you're seeing several smart intelligent investors considering this and so i think these unprofitable growth companies they're coming under pressure because yeah they might be growing significantly but because the business model isn't profitable now and likely won't be profitable for the next few years it's sort of saying wait a second as the fed removes support these companies might need to go into the markets in the future and there's going to be less acceptance for companies that are unprofitable versus the companies that have this big cash cows the the consumer staples that can raise prices and then just minting profits that have sort of a valuation backstop so the question is so what am i personally doing if you're interested go to unrivaledinvesting.com where i you know detail first week of the month my full portfolio last week the month i have a potential multibagger and we also have an exclusive discord community you know interacting with the unrivaled nation on a daily basis i my personal view is a couple of things you know one looking for potential multi-baggers each month trying to find a new idea where regardless of the economic picture there's a structural tailwind where this company could be significantly larger in the future and so for example this month i'm calling a company that's growing two to three hundred percent this year and trades at three to four times sales and so that's very reasonable and it's profitable by the way so i'm i'm looking at that type of setup i also personally you know looking at companies where it's like even if you're not profitable but you're a really strong growth company do you have the cash on your balance sheet so that way you could you could sustain you know for years and years and years your cash burn relative to your your cash position is very reasonable you know so looking at pictures like that saying okay you don't have to tap the capital markets then another the this is more idiosyncratic you know part of my personal investment journey is that i also do consider a sort of a dynamic hedging approach which i also talk about that's more you know day to day versus looking at these potential multibaggers that i'd like to hold over many your per you know many year period that's what i'm looking for if this video has been helpful for you talking about greg jensen what's going on with bridgewater their playbook and how it potentially can impact your investments understanding the broader market environment if this has been helpful for you hit that thumbs up thanks so much for watching
Comments 0