저자: UnrivaledInvesting진행자—마이클버리13F포트폴리오분석영상,출연자외사회자단독진행 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 2021년 2분기 포트폴리오는 고금리 환경에 대비한 '혼돈 베팅' 성격이며, 현금창출력이 높고 저평가된 안정적 기업에 투자하고 고평가·과열 종목에 풋을 거는 구조다. 버리의 주요 베팅: 테슬라 풋(명목 약 10억 달러), 페이스북 콜, 구글 콜, 미국채 장기물(TLT) 풋으로 장기금리 상승에 베팅, 맥케슨·카디널헬스·CVS·월마트 콜 등 필수소비재·헬스케어 유통 기업, 아크(ARKK) 풋, 교정(교도소) 관련 기업 및 저PER 석유·가스 기업 보유. 금리 상승 시 미래 현금흐름에 의존하는 비수익 성장주가 가장 크게 재평가될 위험이 있다는 것이 핵심 논리다. 미국 국채 수익률 곡선이 2% 아래였던 점이 채권 버블 경고 신호로 제시됐다. 테슬라는 2019년 이후 밸류에이션 배수가 5배 확대되어 기대치 충족이 어렵다고 평가했고, 쇼피파이(3배), 트윌리오(2배)도 배수 축소 위험이 크다고 봤다. 유니티소프트웨어는 훌륭한 기업이지만 밸류에이션을 정당화하기 어렵다는 입장이다. 진행자는 '가치(버리)' 대 '성장 밸류에이션 무관(아크)' 중 어느 접근이 옳은지 시청자 의견을 묻는다. 페이스북·구글은 진행자 본인도 보유 중이라고 밝혔다. 한 줄 결론: 고금리·밸류에이션 재조정 위험에 대비해 현금창출력 높은 저평가 필수소비 기업을 선호하고 고평가 성장주는 회피하라는 메시지다.
다듬은 글
hi this is daniel and you're watching unrivaled investing this is a no hype mission focus channel trying to find you exceptional companies and unrivaled investments i'm looking for potential multibaggers folks types of stocks that potentially go up hundreds or even thousands of percent over time if you want to follow my personal journey as i try to find these companies go to unrivaledinvesting.com today we are talking about dr michael berry arguably one of the most successful investors of all time a lot of folks don't realize that before he made his great call in the great financial crisis he was a micro-cap investor small cap medium-sized investor and he this is while he was studying to become a doctor and he was crushing it he was crushing it as a hedge fund manager and the great financial crisis that was just one of many bets that he's made over his career that have turned out very well there's a long history of really thoughtful investing and he takes more of a let's try to find cheap bargains approach to investing a lot of folks don't realize a lot of the companies that he's invested in prior to let's say the last few years a lot of folks think of him as gamestop or the great financial crisis there were a lot of other companies that he bought that turned out very very well and so recently today came out his second quarter 21 holdings one of which was a bet against kathy woods arc etfs and that is so this is kathy wood her arc etf ar k k and he's effectively betting against it and i've actually done a couple of videos talking about sort of the the dynamic there or one he thought there could be liquidity concerns uh and now i think there's another element to it that i'll be talking about in this video let's do a breakdown of what does dr michael berry hold and what are sort of the key themes that you should expect as you look through his portfolio maybe there's a opportunity to piggyback on on what he's doing and so i the first quarter video that i did covering dr michael berry's first quarter portfolio update was i effectively said it's a theme of betting on chaos and thematically i'd argue it's much the same you know betting on higher rates betting you know leveraged bets on growth at a reasonable price consumer staples and short overvaluation and hype and just to broadly understand what sort of the theme and why that is a broad theme that actually covers all these different things you know different different bets is that if you have higher interest rates then a lot of the more speculative stocks that are unprofitable but depend on let's say their future cash flows let's say a decade from now or two decades from now those stocks can get hit the hardest because higher rates ultimately result in a re-rating on these unprofitable companies and so here it is what you find with what dr michael bury is is he's he's got a portfolio with hugely cash generative companies trading at really low multiples they might have a lot of debt but they generally are steady eddy types of companies very stable free cash flow portfolios and oftentimes they're actually unrivaled companies they may not just they may not have the flare that you would see in a kathy wood arc investment portfolio the company that's growing super fast and arguably she also tries to find these unrivaled companies that are growing a lot but maybe the business model just isn't at scale yet they're significant money losers or it's highly volatile and highly dynamic and so as you look at his portfolio it's really saying hey because he does have a bet effectively saying interest rates will go up and that might be a direct you know result of recognizing the radical monetary policy from the federal reserve or if the federal reserve has to taper their 120 billion plus in quantitative easing each month that will result in potentially higher interest rates and if you have higher interest rates you sort of have this trickle effect where all assets reset and very recently the whole treasury curve u.s treasury curve was under 2 so that shows you how this sort of bond bubble and everyone can agree the super low interest rates does create this sort of bubble mentality feeds to all other assets resulting in excessive valuations and so if you see that bond bubble start to pop how does it impact everything else and that's where thematically you'd say okay so if you have higher interest rates you know you want to find the steady eddy things things that you think will be growing at a reasonable you know pace consumer staples that no matter what investors are you know consumers are going to need to buy them and ideally buying it at a reasonable valuation and he's bet any short the overvaluation and and the hype you know companies and so you know to go through you know his top bets and this is based on the market value of or the nominal value of his options so this isn't the dollar amount that he's invested this is the nominal value of the options what they represent in total and so nearly a billion dollar bet against tesla that's a tesla put uh that's i would argue i've done a video on it i can leave a link to it where tesla's valuation even if you assume really excessive incredible growth in the years ahead it's just going to be really tough to beat those expectations it's really going to be tough to beat the fact that valuation has expanded so significantly i'll talk about that in just a little bit you know a facebook call faculty betting on facebook facebook which in full disclosure i own as well you know facebook is a very strong company generating strong growth and significant free cash flow this you know at the end of the day you have something like three billion monthly active users nearly half the world using one of their products and it's a question of like well is this really going to change if you have an interest rate reset environment tlt that's effectively that's a put where he's betting against tlt ie this is long dated bonds saying hey long dated u.s treasury bonds their prices are going to go down hence interest rates going up this is i'd argue direct response to the tapering aspect and you'd see well in the last two three months this has actually gone against him broadly over the last six to nine months has actually been heading in that favor of higher potential interest rates then you look at google google's very similar to facebook you have a growth at a reasonable price type of valuation full disclosure i own google as well you know it's oops oops my google's talking back to me um and so you know looking at google solid free cash flows growing at a reasonable clip will people still keep searching will all these sort of crazy moonshot bets start playing you know paying off for google then you have a number of healthcare plays that he's bet on once again if you were to have an economic reset either because of higher rates or because of you know just some sort of geopolitical tension we're starting to see that right now what type of companies do you think will still be around where consumers will con continue to use their products are the valuations reasonable and so like for example health care bets include mckesson this is a call option betting on this effectively pharmaceutical distributor then you have um cardinal health another pharmaceutical distributor then cvs which is you know the you're looking at the pharmacy you know the retail change so these these are all very steady businesses regardless of the environment and he's trying to say hey can i get this at a reasonable valuation craft times another call option walmart another steady business no matter what i'd argue even in a downturn this business is going to do well because folks need their their basic staples and so even if you do have an interest rate reset environment you know let's let's try to find things where the business still holds up and then lastly in terms of the the top option bets you see that he's made that bet this 30 million dollar bet not huge relative to some of the other things i'd argue tesla is just way bigger um but you could see this arc put is is you know on there it's one of his top option bets so these are you know very interesting bets i've just done a walkthrough of what you know sort of what sectors you're looking at he has a bunch of smaller sort of equity bets that he's made these are generally super cheap stocks you know including bets effectively on prison companies where it's like yeah these companies aren't going anywhere people are still getting arrested people are still you know serving jail time no matter what these businesses will be sticking around he also has some bets on some super cheap oil and gas companies some of these trade at like three times free cash flow and so if you're willing to underwrite the fact that oil prices are currently where they are you could see here and if you think they'll stay where they are let's say over the next five years some of these are just grand slam potential stocks that he's done some of these oil and gas plays um so you know when you think about you know what you're looking at between dr michael berry and you know kathy wood i've done a previous video effectively saying pick your fighter i think a lot depends you know and i'm very curious what you think so leave a comment below you know a lot just depends on what you think the valuation you know is do you think valuation matters and that that's really what it comes down to for a lot of these things because kathy is trying to find unrivaled companies that i i believe that she's trying to find unrivaled companies many of the companies have that sort of marking have that sort of characteristic and he's looking for incredibly stable you know companies that traded you know cheap multiples at least that's what it looks like uh or reasonable multiples at a growth and so the question is well wait a second what sort of environment do you think will be in in the years ahead does it matter that a lot of the names kathy wood owns is sort of the frothy valuation type yeah they might be great companies but maybe she's overpaying for the valuation um you know so i'd love to hear whose take you know who's who's which camp you're in um and you can see you know this is effectively what he's betting against once again another bet on tesla these are the top holdings in the ark etf so tesla i mean tesla is a perfect example where tesla's valuation multiple expanded by 5x since 2019.
that's a huge multiple expansion so that's the question of like well wait a second you know will they be able to deliver on this sort of you know 5x better expectations 5x higher so it's it does get tougher i'm not i'm not saying the market cap grew by 5x the market cap did even more than that because tesla's business was growing as well what i'm saying is the multiple that folks were willing to pay for tesla stock went up by 5x that is a huge driver of the share price and so you need to ask yourself wait a second could that actually reset in the years ahead because if that did that would be a huge headwind for investors literally an 80 percent headwind for investors to consider and that's part of the reason why you know when i did my tesla video i just said i can't underwrite that valuation uh unity software it's another this fantastic company you know i don't disagree this is an amazing company quite possibly unrivaled i've done a video on unity but i still just can't underwrite the valuation like i'm looking at you know 30 40 growth i'm like man this multiple is just too rich even if you assume 30 plus growth for the years ahead it's just too tough for me to see it then you look at something like shopify where since 2019 multiple is expanded by 3x if you were to see a valuation reset just to back where it wasn't 29 2019.
keep in mind 2019 it's not like interest rates were at five or seven percent they're still close to zero interest rate policy so you could have you know this reset to where it was in terms of valuation multiple and that would be a huge headwind for shopify same thing for twilio twilio saw 2x expansion so a lot of these companies these are these are cash losers at this point where they're unprofitable this is exactly the type of portfolio where a higher interest rate environment could result in multiple reversion a valuation multiple version where a lot of these get a significant haircut even if the underlying business dynamics continue to suggest that they're unrivaled or continue to just crush it in terms of their growth and that's that's sort of the challenge so that's why i'd love to hear your take of like hey kathy wood camp where valuation doesn't really matter it's more about you know pie in the sky let's see just crazy growth or the dr michael bury approach of like hey you know what i want to find things to trade at let's say 10 times free cash flow or maybe they traded 20 times free cash flow but they're growing at a good clip like a google or facebook i'd love to hear your thoughts on that who do you think is right and if you want to follow my personal journey you know as i try to find potential multibaggers go to unrivaledinvesting.com first week of the month i call out my full portfolio by the end of the month i call it a potential multibagger there's also an exclusive discord community where i'm interacting with the unrivaled nation on a daily basis if this video was helpful for you please make a point of hitting that subscribe button and hit that thumbs up thanks so much for watching
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