저자: 미상 · 외국인
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텍사스인스트루먼츠(TXN)는 최근 실적(매출 -16.4%, 순이익 -35.3%)이 나쁘지만 10년 장기 수익률, 높은 이익률(35.2%), 자사주 매입, 배당 성장은 양호하다. 잉여현금흐름 감소는 대규모 투자 탓으로 보며, 현재 주가(약 197달러)는 DCF 기준 모든 시나리오에서 고평가다. 재무건전성은 상위권이나 성장성은 실망스럽다. 강세 시나리오는 투자 후 경쟁력 강화와 배당귀족 전환, 약세 시나리오는 신임 CEO 실행력 부족과 치열한 경쟁이다.
다듬은 글
Hello friends Terry Smith bought Texas instrument stock last quarter and it was the largest addition to his stock portfolio during that time this new investment immediately accounted for almost 0.8% of his portfolio if one of the greatest investors out there often referred to as the English Warren Buffett shows a lot of conviction in a certain company it may be worth taking a closer look at it to see if it could also be an interesting investment opportunity for us so let's start with the recent Financial results and they are not good revenue is down by 16.4% year-over-year net income is down by 35.3% cash is also down by 16.2% in 3 months and that is up by 20.8% in that time okay so shortterm results are bad I mean really bad but as investors we should be looking at the long term so uh let's do that if you were to invest $1,000 into this company 10 years ago you could buy around 22 shares and now they would be worth something close to $4,290 and this company also pays dividends so in that time you would get $71 as dividends so if we add those numbers together we get $4,991 and that is a total gain of $399 per in 10 years that is very good but let's analyze the company itself to see is there a chance to continue such a trend into the future individual insiders that is an X 0.2% of the company is owned by individual insiders and we would like to see it over 2% so the management does not have a lot of skin in the game and are individual insiders buying that is an X in the last last year they sold shares worth over $100 million and the super investors own this company that is a check eight super investors own shares of Texas Instruments including people like Christopher Davis David cats and since last quarter Terry Smith and are they buying right now that is a check in the last quarter they bought over 1,100,000 shares and sold just over over 250,000 shares so a lot of conviction from Super investors return on invested Capital that is a check at 30.2% 10year median returns that shows that the management is doing a very good job but Mr haviv Ilan is the CEO of Texas Instruments Incorporated only since April 20 23 so those results are not really created by Him and in the last year they are getting worse but there may be a reason for that and we will get to it and what do we know about net profit margin it is a check at 35.2% and the industry average is 16.5% so Texas Instruments is one of the best companies in the industry when it comes to the profit margin and now let's take a look at share buyback it is a check in the last 10 years they bought back 15.7% off shares that is very nice what it means is that long-term investors don't have to spend any extra money to own a bigger portion of this business and the debt it is an X it would take 2.6 years to pay the long-term debt with a 5-year average free C cash flow if we would look at the recent free cash flow the result would be much worse Revenue growth that is an X at 3.7% 10-year compound annual growth rate and we would like to see this number higher than 10% but the main reason for the result is a sudden drop of Revenue in 2023 free cash flow growth that is an ex at minus 7.6% in the last 10 years so that is not good but this lower free cash flow can indicate a lot of Investments and R&D costs we know for example that Texas Instruments is building two new assembly and Test Facilities in Malaysia and also a new production plant in Utah which is worth $1 billion so so the recent bad financial results are at least in part triggered by Investments that are necessary to secure the future of this company and earnings per share growth that is a check at 14% in the last 10 years so the share buyback program is doing its job there are less shares so earnings per share are higher the dividend yield is 2.7% so shareholders can expect to get $520 annually from every share and the payout ratio that is an X at 79.3% and we want to see the payout ratio somewhere between 20 and 50% so what it means is that this company is spending almost 80% of its earnings to pay dividends that is not help if they would cut the dividends they could for example have a much smaller debt but it seems that the management has a different idea for the future of this company when it comes to dividends so let's look at the dividend growth it is a check at 11.9% 5-year growth rate and they are growing their dividends for 18 years so it seems they intend to become a dividend aristoc at in the next few years interesting price to earnings ratio is 30.3 that indicates that Texas Instruments is rather expensive right now but to properly value this company we will use a discounted cash flow formula and we will create free scenarios of its future growth we will also use a 5year average free cash flow for this calculation instead of the most recent one because it is much lower than what we observed in the last few years the decrease is largely influenced by substantial Investments therefore the five-year average free cash flow likely represents the company more realistically so in the low scenario we will estimate a growth of 10% for the next 5 years and then 8% in the medium 14% and then 12% and in the high scenario 16% and then 14% growth so the low scenario is a bit lower than the predicted average growth for the semiconductor industry which is around 14.9% medium is very close to the predicted growth of the industry and the high one is showing a scenario in which Texas Instruments grows just a bit faster than the competitors so with such estimates the intrinsic value in the low scenario is $15 in the medium $144 and in the highest scenario $169 but we have to always apply a margin of safety to those prices I use a 30% one and with such a margin we get in the low scenario $73 in the medium $11 and in the high one $118 and the current price is around $197 so it is all in the red Texas Instruments is rather expensive right now okay so now let's go to our stock ranking Pro and get an overview of this company so here are all the data we just talked about and here we get to our scores and if we sort the ranking by Financial Health we see that Texas Instruments has the ninth best Financial Health of all the companies we analyzed on this channel and when we look at the company overview we see straight away that it is not a fast growing company it's healthy it has nice dividends and a decent situation when it comes to investors but growth is disappointing so what is the bare case for Texas Instruments well the new CEO may not be able to turn this ship around current Investments may pull this company so far down that it will really struggle to get back to the strong position it was at just recently also this industry has some very very strong competition companies like Nvidia AMD Intel so to actually grow faster than those companies will not be easy and the technology shifts that are coming with AI self-driving and other new technologies can be very hard to navigate so it is not a business that runs itself and let's not forget that at the current price it does not look like a bar and what is the bull case well after a year or two of worse results mainly due to huge Investments Texas Instruments May emerge as a strong and dangerous competitor to all the major players in the semiconductor industry the fact that they have one of the highest margins in the industry can allow them to strengthen that position and the company serves various Industries including Auto motive industrial and consumer electronics these markets provide different revenue streams so they are well Diversified also they may continue growing the dividend and in few years become a dividend Aristocrat and if they also continue to buy back shares then they can create great returns for long-term investors if you enjoyed this video check out my analysis of super microcomputer incorporated or tsmc's analysis I think you may like them thank you so much for watching and see you in the next one
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