저자: RossGerber · 외국인
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Gerber는 테슬라 보유분을 점진적으로 매도해왔고 밸류에이션 대비 괴리를 근거로 제시. 테슬라는 3년간 수익 정체, 주당순이익 약 6달러 없이는 주가 400달러 회복 어렵다고 봄. 로보택시 수익화는 먼 미래, 저가차(3만달러대)·로보캡 부재로 판매 한계. 경쟁사 EV 확대와 브랜드 이미지 훼손을 우려. 엔비디아로 교체 매매, 페라리 같은 브랜드 가치 강조. 내년 인도량 250만대 달성은 어렵다고 전망.
다듬은 글
this afternoon joining us Mr Ross Gerber president CEO at Gerber Kawasaki wealth and Investment Management Ross thanks for being here this afternoon my pleasure thanks for having me all right so we've been talking the big picture and conceptually the uh Tesla story now for the past year and I've been frustrated but I know you've still got a decent amount of Tesla on the books right so you got to still be running the numbers yeah I mean we have a lot of Tesla still and we you know like this opportunity to lighten our load you know at these prices yeah you sell if they ramp on earnings well yeah you know we've been sellers for some time you know a little by little you know because we don't try to Market time but you know we look at what we think Tesla is worth and where it's trading today we we still see a gap and so you know it's probably better to be a seller than a buyer you know from a valuation perspective I guess you know Tesla seems to defy you know sort of PE logic right now with twice the multiple of Nvidia so it just seemed like an easy trade for us to like sell Tesla and buy Nvidia but that's just you know what we do here trying to make people money at GK which we're pretty good at that's a pretty uh solid way to frame it too that you get uh Nvidia for half the valuation well that's what we did with our Tesla we we sold all the Tesla we sold we just bought a video with and it's been a phenomenal trade I mean you can just chart my ETF GK versus Tesla over the last 12 months and it's like The Tale of Two Cities you know what I mean so you know it is what it is I I I'm all I got to make money for my clients Tesla has not made us money for over three years now and and I just don't see how Tesla gets back to $400 a share without earning more like $6 a share so until Tesla can really get earnings to go higher I just don't really see where you know Tesla kind of goes from here so that's why earnings are so important but right now if you go on the website 0% financing more discounts coming Tesla is now a Maga symbol so you know people are buying the cars simply because they're the best cars but they're holding their nose when they do it and so you know I don't see how they grow volumes meaningfully from here when the Cyber Tru is really like a kind of a Specialty Vehicle and they don't really have anything new coming and they don't really want to address the $3,000 $225,000 car market which I think would have been a huge home run for Tesla with this rooc cab actually having it a steering wheel so you know this it was a huge disappointment that you couldn't buy this Robo cabin actually just drive it you know Fair yeah uh no wheel makes it a little difficult uh you don't think they're going to talk about the discount car this afternoon at all even in the uh conference call I mean you know once again you you got to you got to sell cars to Consumers if you're a Tesla because that's 95% of your revenue and as much as you want to do robo taxi that's not happening anytime soon there's no quantifiable profitability or re Vue coming from Robo taxi for Tesla anytime soon like maybe before my kid even starts driving you know and so and I question even their ability to solve full self-driving with the current Vision systems that they're working with because I don't think Hardware 4 is good enough and so Tesla is sort of in this weird space where it needs a lot of work it has tremendous potential but like that vehicle you're putting up on the screen should have a steering wheel and and they should sell it I don't know about that toaster oven but but I would probably buy a toaster oven just to take me to the Dodger game because it takes 2 and 1 half hours in traffic but but that said you know tell me how they're going to sell more cars than they're selling today especially with General Motors uh whose uh margins had some uh solid improvement over the past year Tesla's kind of more flat uh but they well also just to jump in there's some great new EVS coming onto the market next year too from a lot of different companies and these companies have figured it out so the days of oh we don't have competition that's long over you know you look at like Dodge Charger EV like I was like that's a sweet idea you know Silverado uh EV truck you know so like lots of different companies are coming out with great EVS this was the goal of Tesla but but now with their eye off the ball their competitors are legit and and because so many people dislike uh the political leanings of Elon they're choosing other vehicles just simply because they will not support Elon Musk and and so this becomes a a a really difficult thing when you sell cars basically to liberals for a living but the guy in charge works every day for the oil companies of Donald Trump so this is just a a dissonance that consumers have to deal with and and some and people are buying cars just because they are still the greatest vehicles but as I said they really don't want to have to support Tesla and it's a really sad sad thing to see you guys should Finance Ross a survey to put some data behind that cuz you say that every time and you got to get some data right you dat other people buy other people buy Lial the data is the profit margins the more margins go down it's the more desperate they are to have to sell a car sure yeah that part yeah well we bought Ferrari stock nobody is discounting a Ferrari okay you see what I'm saying Ferrari makes 40% margins on their cars they're selling a $4 million car to their current customers and they don't discount anything why because the brand has such amazing value people look at this brand and they love the brand and the consumers will buy Ferraris after Ferrari at a 40% margin this is why we own Ferrari stock now because I think the value of a brand is something that one should not just you know Diss and you know Tesla had a premium brand it had a premium place in the market place and it's gone I don't know if you what data you need just go look at the numbers the numbers suck right so so we're excited about 60 cents well we used to do a dollar you know what I'm saying well the data data that I'm referring I would love to see is if people from political parties are not buying the car not that but that that's like well go to Houston just go to Houston and see how many freaking Teslas are there there's none now you go to Santa Monica they're everywhere so you what data do you need California is like the largest market for Tesla sales in the in the world like besides China so like once again it's it's about climate well it also makes sense more Houston's a giant giant place to drive around the infrastructure being built in California for charging is a lot more accommodative right but I hear your point on the margin I hear your point on the margins which is that obviously you're not going to be getting them if you were compared to the extreme highend it sounds like basically what it boils down to is there are better options for it that being said I mean they're still pulling off like 18% margin which is not too far off traditional autom makers for all the other stuff they're doing is that not worth a little speculative premium into some of their Moon shs absolutely absolutely and and it has that speculative premium at 90 times earnings you know like you know like how much what is GM and Ford like six times earnings you know like come on man you know Tesla gets the premium it deserves and and and should have especially when you include storage and and charging which I love those businesses and quite frankly I love the EV business with great soft ware in Services you know there's nothing wrong with Tesla but you name me another CEO doing what elon's doing okay Steve schwarzman we own Blackstone he's a huge Trump supporter okay I don't love that okay we own the stock okay but do you see him out on TV every day literally like doing everything for Trump no he's a behindth scenes guy CU he doesn't want to cause controversy politics is toxic to your brand it doesn't matter what you do doesn't matter what industry you are it is a bad year to be doing this and and elon's doing what he wants to do that said he's bet on Trump and if Trump doesn't win boy that's that's going to look bad so I don't know get it uh Hey as far as numbers deliveries go though do you think that these are going to be negative too do you think the Market's going to look at the numbers and go that's not good or what would they be able to do here just number-wise to maybe uh e some of the concern that the demand is waning at a fast R real quick well I think the most important thing is deliveries out next year and whether they'll compare to this year I think he has an easy comp this year over last year because they had some disruptions because of terrorism and things last year in the supply chain but that said are they really going to get over 2 million Vehicles get to two and a half million vehicles and that's what we expect over the next year and that's what I don't think we're going to achieve okay got it thanks Ross appreciate the time
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