저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 텍사스 화재 사고는 운전자 음주(혈중알코올 법정한도 약 2배)와 자동조향 비활성 상태가 확인돼 오토파일럿 면책 가능성이 제기됨. 애플의 도요타 협업 생산 논의(2024년 시작, 2030년 150만대 전망)가 보도됨. 사이버트럭 양산이 2023년 이후로 지연되며 일부 경쟁사에 뒤처질 수 있다고 분석. 9월 테슬라 인도량 집중 기대 및 FSD 베타 10 출시 예고. 과거 기업 발표와 뉴스 분석 위주이며 주가 방향 예측은 제한적.
다듬은 글
hey everyone meet kevin here let's talk about tesla and we'll also touch on apple a little bit so first i'm going to talk about that fiery crash in texas and we're going to talk about apple a little bit and then we're going to get into tesla and that crazy all hands on deck meeting so first things up first if you have not gotten an insurance quote yet with lemonade go to metkevin.com lemonade and check out insurance that you can get for your pet for your house for your rent renters insurance or for your life go to kevin.com lemonade okay folks tesla fiery crash we heard that all of a sudden in tesla earlier this summer or in spring a vehicle at a high rate of speed hit a tree in tesla in a neighborhood model s crashed and burst into flames media reports freaked out that day suggesting that no driver was found in the front seat while the car was on fire and two people were dead inside of the vehicle but nobody was in the front seat leading to a ton of fear uncertainty and doubt about tesla's autopilot because headline news said that a tesla with autopilot crashed into a tree burst into a flames and nobody was found in the driver's seat leading to questions about the safety around autopilot and of course tesla stock plummeted thereafter this was just the beginning of a series of wild accusations around tesla's autopilot system well we finally have some more insight it is no surprise but here are the conclusions that we have from the accident number one the driver was drunk and there was a driver in fact the driver was seen on camera getting inside of the vehicle before the vehicle took off and ended up bursting into flames the driver was uh had a blood alcohol level of nearly twice the legal limit in the state of texas there was impact damage to the steering wheel suggesting that somebody had fallen forward in the accident and there was also evidence that the auto steering system was actually off during the time leading up to the accident these pieces here suggest that somebody was a little overconfident a little intoxicated potentially hit the gas drove a little too fast lost control hit a tree car bursts into flames and is now suspected that at least the driver climbed into the back of the car we're not sure why they couldn't get out of the front maybe to escape fire on the front or maybe the door would not open who knows tried to get into the back and unfortunately ended up dead in the back it's very sad very gruesome but uh through the autopsy reports we do know that at least one of the individuals uh had smoke inhalation damage to the inside of their lungs which implies they were still alive after the crash which in fairness does beg the question that would they have died if this were a gas-powered car in other words would the car have caught fire so autopilot potentially fully exonerated here i would say in fact that's probably the direction i would go in terms of battery safety tbd on that one so a little more clarity on this tesla accident now let's go ahead and touch a little bit on apple and then let's get into some of this other tesla news that we got regarding an all hands on deck meeting and some other details so first though apple apple is now apparently robbing from tesla because remember there was a period of time and i made a video about this tesla was potentially in talks with toyota to basically license to toyota the tesla ui and services and then uh all of a sudden a toyota would manufacture a cheaper maybe 25 000 vehicle in japan for the japanese audience and who knows maybe ship it out from there well apparently those rumors have essentially vanished instead now uh we have macrumors.com reporting that apple is now reportedly in talks with toyota about apple car production starting in 2024.
i personally found this very interesting because well this was a word that we heard about with tesla now at the same time we also have talk coming up that apple could sell as many as 1.5 million electric vehicles by 2030 after beginning production in 2024. we have yet to see what this tesla or sorry this apple car potentially looks like we know that apple has been curious about cars and they have a secret project dedicated to vehicles we've also seen job listings for things related to cars and really this one and a half million car target could make sense after six years of vehicle production if tesla sorry if apple does end up producing vehicles in 2024 but 1.5 million by bernstein this is at this point mostly just speculation bernstein by the way is an investment firm worth noting uh right now just to give you a comparison tesla manufacturers about 200 000 vehicles per quarter so we're about 800 000 to a million vehicles per year we would hope to be closer to seven to 10 million by 2030.
kathy wood also talked about the potential for a bear case three thousand dollar price target for tesla on yahoo finance earlier this morning now let's go ahead and talk about this all hands on deck meeting and some catalysts that have kind of led the stock to go a little bit lower apparently there were some all hands on deck meeting at tesla and we heard about a delay in the cyber truck i have no idea what this particular article said uh yet we're going to go through this in a moment here from barons they have a good piece on this i expect it to be a good piece because i really respect parents but before we do that i think it's worth noting that with the cyber truck delay that we're we've heard about now or if you have not heard about it yet the cyber truck got delayed to the end of 2022 the writing was on the wall in fact it wasn't even on the wall we bluntly identified it in the last earnings call now i thought they were going to delay it just to the beginning of 2022 instead of the end of 2022 but take a look at my conviction here in this particular video now i'm not going to put myself right here so i'm just going to remove myself here but watch this for about 10 seconds here when i pick up on the bull crap that tesla was putting out uh regarding the cyber truck timing because they were asked three times about the cyber truck and they just wouldn't say it so i finally got frustrated and i'll show you what i had to say and then we'll go to what happened here with the baron's article but here ready for this here we go you know even moving like like lightning 12 to 18 months um why are they just not saying because they're worried about the stock tanking like it's not going to cyber trucks not coming this year get over it just say it um so anyway you could tell i was getting a little frustrated with the earnings call the last earnings call so let's go ahead and pop on over now to uh to the it was so obvious right so like this oh cyber truck delay thing i'm like really like duh anyway so let's let's read about this all hands on deck meeting what happened i have not read this yet so we're gonna look at it together all right here we go things are getting more complicated for electric vehicle maker tesla which by the way it's worth noting that there's another investigation that was just announced into a tesla that apparently killed somebody changing a tire in new york uh not good obviously uh here we go national highway traffic safety administration says it launched a special crash investigation team to investigate the tesla crash there was a fatal july 26 tesla crash in new york that killed a pedestrian changing a tire that's so good time for tesla tequila yeah no wonder it's not available elon's taking it all anyway things are getting complicated for tesla the company's balancing the new addition of new models new capacity new employees all during the semiconductor shortage uh okay semiconductor shortage all news so according to reports tesla had some kind of all hands on deck a meeting this is either good news or bad news for investors oh i can only imagine it's always bad news the bad news is the cyber truck is facing delays investors already knew of de already knew delivery of tesla's light duty pickup truck had slipped uh we didn't know that they didn't say that but whatever in the whole earnings call they totally punted that but i think any reasonable analyst would have made the same conclusions that i did during the earnings calls so that's probably why barons are saying that now it looks as if production won't go into volume before 2023 also true i mean this is worse than expected that puts tesla behind a ford motor ford motors rivian and potentially gm in the race to launch an all-electric truck at the scale of tens of thousands of units a year it's worth noting that's actually notable for competition i mean the the ford lightning doesn't look that bad on a positive note 2023 also appears to be the year tesla plans to launch a smaller model costing about twen elon musk has been tweeting before this all hands on deck meeting that uh tesla will be releasing the uh beta version 10 for self driving as soon as next week and then potentially version beta 10.1 two weeks thereafter which means essentially the end of september third to fourth week of the uh of september which might include the option for the public to opt into full self-driving which personally i'm very excited about because i don't have that beta yet seems like all the other youtubers have it maybe i just haven't been nice enough to tesla but i'm a realist i sit in the middle when i see bs i call it out it's the way it works anyway musk and tesla management have talked about lower cost model for many months this is good because they'll dramatically expand the total addressable market sure the current sedan currently starts at 40k but then you don't have the full self driving in it to date few details have emerged about this smaller model the key to selling a lower cost ev is of course getting ev cost battery cost down tesla has managed to raise its gross profit per vehicle from about 11 000 to almost 15k in the past two years that happened while average selling prices dropped per vehicle musk also told employees that september would be a busy month for deliveries that's actually bullish tesla typically delivers most of its cars in the final month of a quarter that makes sense get that push out this is the final is that's weird to say october november december yeah september it's the end of the this is the final month of uh of q3 already it's so weird because we're just going through q2 earnings that ended uh june 30th and and now we're basically already nearing the end of q3 it's crazy tesla delivered more than 200 000 vehicles in the second quarter analysts are projecting 224 to be delivered in the third global chip shortage however will make quarterly production and deliveries a little more exciting than usual and by exciting they don't mean good exciting so really to me it sounds like this all hands on deck meeting was was just verifying and solidifying that yeah we're not going to get to production on the cyber truck for another year pushing the entire thing a year out the writing was on the wall for that in their earnings call and uh just some talk about the the smaller model so i don't really see that as such an exciting all hands on deck meeting it sounded it sounds pretty predictable here it's also i think the cyber the roadster is going to get delayed to 2023 was also in a press release on this but you have to google cybertruck to actually get to the darn thing let's take a quick look yeah so here's the cyber truck let's just play with the pre-orders here for a moment and you now have look at this so the tri-motor is uh you will be able to complete your configuration as production nears in 2022 so they've updated this for the tri-motor for the dual motor they also say to they've changed everything to 2022 so they have not pushed anything here yet until 2023 just so you could see it right here since i know my head was in the web but i know a lot of people are very excited about cybertron i don't really want to spend the money on it so i don't really care but uh i also kind of want it it's total butter it's a total waste of money but i gotta have it anyway so there's the update on tesla and they're all hands on deck meeting big deal whatever just keep selling cars will ya here let's look at the stock the stonk uh i also it's worth mentioning that aside from all of the the nonsense like jagger that happens in the stock market in news regarding uh tesla i believe it's worth noting that if we do go into a reduction in inflation an inflection point to the downside season of september and october and the taper does not have happened in september i think september october it's rally mode it's here let's go and so far we've seen we've definitely seen rallying going into september we'll see if that continues uh with tesla here and see if we could finally break to uh to some of the highs that we saw as early as uh january and february of this year which we've really not revisited until hitting about 777 in april so we'll see if we can break that 777 over the next month here my expectation is unless we have a big miss on deliveries which comes out the first week of october i think september is is a month to be bullish on tesla for although who knows who knows there's been so much fun for tesla this year doesn't really matter i do have some sold call positions against my tesla which i have not had in a very long time uh okay anyway enough about tesla let's move on you
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