저자: JeremyGrantham · 외국인
요약 보기
Grantham은 현재 시장이 1929·2000년 같은 대형 버블 패턴과 유사하다고 주장한다. 10년 평활 Shiller PE가 약 29배로 높고, 2021년 이후 인플레이션 스파이크와 끈적한 물가로 모델상 PE는 약 16.8배가 적정하다는 Gap을 제시한다. 실질 기업이익률은 1년 넘게 하락 중이다. 버블 붕괴 직전에는 고베타 성장주가 먼저 꺾이고 블루칩이 상승하는 특징적 패턴이 나타난다고 설명하며, 그 패턴이 2021년 이후 나타났다고 본다. 또한 낮은 부채·안정적 기업(고품질 팩터)이 장기적으로 초과수익을 낸다고 언급하고, 미국 시장이 2010년 이후 선진국 대비 연 7% 높은 이익 성장을 보였다고 말한다.
다듬은 글
that's a pretty good indicator of impending Trouble When people's confidence in the following year is so lousy and it's unusual and it has seldom being this bad history will say that the 21st century is unusual abnormal aberant even the window from 2000 until now has been abnormally High profit margins abnormally High pees abnormally low interest rates Etc 40 Years of lower and lower interest rates push asset prices up particularly housing through the mortgage mechanism how can it not if you can afford to pay more for your house because the mortgage rates are 3% sooner or later you pay more for it and so the competition bids the price up to fill the available affordability now the mortgage is are seven the same will happen in Reverse doesn't happen overnight everyone in the market wants everything to happen yesterday but with interest rates and mortgages it can take a long time to percolate through but you can be absolutely certain that it will if the world were to behave like it has behaved in every other major bubble that's all it would take are we in the major bubble yeah yeah of course if you look at a 10year smooth average PE and a shil PE you find that uh there's a pretty decent spike in 1929 a much higher Spike than that in 200000 and a slightly lower Spike than that now this is approximately the second highest point higher than 29 and in each case they back and fill and they go back to more average levels even if you allow for a moderate increase inre in the normal Schiller we know the market doesn't like inflation let's find other things that the market likes or doesn't like and let's explain on a coincident basis why the market sells high and low it turns out the market is a coincident indicator of comfort what makes the typical portfolio manager feel comfortable and number one it loves low inflation it hates High inflation it likes 2% stable inflation it does not like to see it bouncing around it doesn't like to see it spike in the worst way and it does not like to see it hanging around for multiple years that's the most important one secondly it loves High profit margins what a surprise now way way down in third place is the stability of growth the growth rate does not have a positive correlation with PE the market is nervous about births of high growth it doesn't like plus 9us 2 it would rather have plus three plus 3 + 3 than plus 9us 2 even though it average is higher it likes certainty stability is the best description so you look at this model and it says 1929 should not have been a surprise it had low inflation High profit margins wonderful profit margins incidentally and the growth rate was ticking along at a pretty high rate and it was stable so Heaven the market called the Great Depression everything was bad it got the nifty50 right on the nose it got the idea in the 70s that you'd be seven times earnings because terrible inflation persistent terrible inflation low margins wild economic growth so it 6.8 time earnings was the trough and the model called for almost exactly so then it makes what you might call a major error for the first time in 2000 it says in 2000 wonderful profit margins no inflation you'll have the highest PE that you have ever seen not bad directionally instead of 21 times in 1929 a new peak of 25 times and it goes to 35 times and that was not explained by anything we could see in history or then it just happened you could argue that that is the only really crazy psychological event up until then in American history we got it 18 months later it's back on Trend we got the setback we got the housing bubble right we got the Wipeout right and then it brings us to the second major deviation second major deviation starts in the second half of 21 second half of 21 we have a inflation Spike every time we've had an inflation spike in history pees have gone down sometimes rapidly this one was a strong inflation Spike but the Pees went up creating a major Gap where the model goes down and the market goes up and suddenly we've got a big gap then the market says after all I'm not sure I believe the fed and the beginning of 22 is the worst 6 months since 1939 but the model is still going down because inflation is hanging around and the model declines so fast forward what does it say today it doesn't like the pattern of stickiness in the inflation it doesn't like the profit margins which in real terms have been coming down quite steadily now for over a year they're down over 15% adjusted for inflation and the model calls for 16.8 which in the long term is still pretty high but the actual Market is 29 times earnings yes on a Schiller smooth basis and on a Schiller it's 29 this is a pretty handsome Gap and what this says is that is if the market responds to the same forces that it responded to over an entire 100-year period it's only been different for a couple of years since inflation spiked do we really feel the market is cool about inflation that it will not get a moment of second thoughts like it had at the beginning of 2022 maybe this is not going to be as neat just back up a few weeks and we reached this kind of honeymoon period once again where everyone was confident we were going to have soft Landing now 1929 2000 1974 the nifty50 every one of these we were going to have a soft Landing trust me check the data everything was going to work out fine it never does if you want to look at the great Bubbles and nothing but the great bubbles what you find is the most interesting distinction is one that is unique to them and nothing else it never happens any other time and that is the leadership of the market going up you know 70 80% in a year starts to go down as the Blue Chips continue up now the ones going down have a beta of 1.5 they're meant to go up 50% more than the market they can't even get the sign right so in 1929 the S&P was kind enough to have a low priced index which was pure junk pure junk had been up 80% Plus in 1928 and it's dropping all the way through 1929 the day before the crash it's down almost 40% before the crash it is the great I like to say Primal scream from the stock market ever up until then nothing like that happens again till 1972 in 1972 the S&P is up 17 the average Big Board stock is down 17 that's not bad then nothing like that happens again until 2000 in 2000 we know what happened they take out the grow stocks and they go down basically 50% before rallying and the rest of the S&P goes up yeah so in September the S&P is the same as it was at the peak in March of 2000 in the meantime the grow stocks have gone down NDA gone down huge so the rest of the S&P X the super growth stocks has gone up about we calculate 13 14 15% same thing has happened High beta stocks have gone down Blue Chips continue up and it happened this time too only the fourth time in history where going back to 2021 starting with quantumscape and quickly going through Kathy Wood's portfolio and on through the meme stocks and everything there is an ugly year following my waiting for the last time lasted right through the end of December but that is exactly what it did in the other three bubbles in other words if you're predicting a bubble you should be saying and the characteristic of this decline will be this unique odd event where the super Leaders with the highest betas go down as the last gasp of the blue chips and then the the bubble will break I think the temptation to manipulate these major variables is overwhelming uh particularly done in the interest of saying the market can go up a lot I have a a long history of dealing with this tendency over a few decades and I get it it's nice to be optimistic and given half a chance the investment business of course has a commercial imperative it absolutely has to be bullish it doesn't make any sense to be anything else it maximizes their return over the full cycle and that's how they do it every time they bullish so never expect a major investment house to be beish they are risk factors Price to Book is the Market's definition of who's got the most suspicious Assets in the business and small cap are more likely to go out of business of course than large cap So when you buy them you take on some risk and you expect a higher return quality on the other hand they have less debt they are less vulnerable to a financial crisis they are solid Enterprises with long histories they are less vulnerable to an economic problem a AAA Bond everyone knows and expects it will yield one point less than say a b right that's the law of nature you take less risk they go bankrupt less the triaa stock however has a long history of returning half a percent more than the market it's ridiculous it's the only free good it completely clashes with the early versions of the efficient market hypothesis it says by taking less risk of all kinds less volatility less any kind of risk less beta less bankruptcy risk you still get an extra half point a year whether it's 100 years last 10 years has been a little bit better than that last year has been considerably better than that so it is very much a candidate for the only free lunch in the investment business High stable return with low debt if you meet that category be high quality and a good balance sheet the fangs have very high average quality because they are let's face it monopolies and they have great pricing control obviously and they have good profit margins they aren't necessarily higher quality than Coca-Cola but combined with growth they're pretty damn high quality if you add that up what it shows is that from 2010 until today the US market in total goes up 7% better earnings than the rest of the developed world
Comments 0